Forecasting Intraday Time Series with Multiple Seasonal Cycles Using Parsimonious Seasonal Exponential Smoothing

This paper concerns the forecasting of seasonal intraday time series. An extension of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing has been proposed that smoothes an intraday cycle and an intraweek cycle. A recently proposed exponential smoothing method involves smoothing a different intraday cycle for each distinct type of day of the week. Similar days are allocated identical intraday cycles. A limitation is that the method allows only whole days to be treated as identical. We introduce an exponential smoothing formulation that allows parts of different days of the week to be treated as identical. The result is a method that involves the smoothing and initialisation of fewer terms than the other two exponential smoothing methods. We evaluate forecasting up to a day ahead using two empirical studies. For electricity load data, the new method compares well with a range of alternatives. The second study involves a series of arrivals at a call centre that is open for a shorter duration at the weekends than on weekdays. By contrast with the previously proposed exponential smoothing methods, our new method can model in a straightforward way this situation, where the number of periods on each day of the week is not the same.Exponential smoothing; Intraday data; Electricity load; Call centre arrivals.

Plastic Flowage of Salt in Mines at Hutchinson and Lyons, Kansas

Plastic flowage in the pillars and floors of salt mines at Hutchinson and Lyons, Kansas, is indicated by buckling, spalling, and fracturing. Detailed measurements of the relative size of the pillars in newly opened rooms and crosscuts were made over a period of 11 months. These data indicate that the salt flowage is due to pressure of the overburden and is controlled by the volume of salt excavated and configuration of the excavation. Plastic flowage causes folds and fractures to develop only in the floor of the Lyons mine. The orientation of structures and rates of flowage in the base, top, and middle of pillars are governed by the direction of easiest relief of stress, which is controlled by the mining plan

Plastic Flowage of Salt in Mines at Hutchinson and Lyons, Kansas

Plastic flowage in the pillars and floors of salt mines at Hutchinson and Lyons, Kansas, is indicated by buckling, spalling, and fracturing. Detailed measurements of the relative size of the pillars in newly opened rooms and crosscuts were made over a period of 11 months. These data indicate that the salt flowage is due to pressure of the overburden and is controlled by the volume of salt excavated and configuration of the excavation. Plastic flowage causes folds and fractures to develop only in the floor of the Lyons mine. The orientation of structures and rates of flowage in the base, top, and middle of pillars are governed by the direction of easiest relief of stress, which is controlled by the mining plan

Introduction to Special Issue of \u3ci\u3eJournal of Defense Modeling and Simulation\u3c/i\u3e: Novel Approaches to Defense and Military Modeling and Simulation

Developing solutions to complex problems in government and industry is a daunting task that often requires tremendous investment in time and resources to solve. Modeling and simulation (M&S) has incredible potential to streamline development and cut costs by conducting virtual experiments that give insight into performance under various test conditions. As many program managers in the federal acquisition process can attest, realistic testing of live equipment in an operational environment can be some of the most expensive parts of a development program. M&S can provide insight into mission success of yetto- bedesigned systems without the need to actually build and test the system in the real world. Similarly, M&S tools can evaluate human effectiveness under various scenarios while only risking the virtual lives of avatars. When properly applied, M&S capabilities provide critical insight that allows leaders to make smart decisions about how to accomplish the mission and increase human performance more quickly and at lower cost and risk than reliance on real-world testing. Throughout this special issue, we examine a variety of novel M&S concepts that promise to deliver simulation results to the defense and military community that positively impact system-level mission studies and human effectiveness research. These M&S tools not only affect the defense and military community, but can also have application to a wide variety of government and industry users with needs to solve similar problem sets. Whether the end goal is cost savings, operational analysis or refinement of sub-components, the M&S concepts described in this special issue testify to the power that these tools can provide to help decision makers efficiently allocate scarce resources and provide improved performance of humans and the systems that they operate in the long run

The Antiferromagnetic Band Structure of La2CuO4 Revisited

Using the Becke-3-LYP functional, we have performed band structure calculations on the high temperature superconductor parent compound, La2CuO4. Under the restricted spin formalism (rho(alpha) equal to rho(beta)), the R-B3LYP band structure agrees well with the standard LDA band structure. It is metallic with a single Cu x2-y2/O p(sigma) band crossing the Fermi level. Under the unrestricted spin formalism (rho(alpha) not equal to rho(beta)), the UB3LYP band structure has a spin polarized antiferromagnetic solution with a band gap of 2.0 eV, agreeing well with experiment. This state is 1.0 eV (per formula unit) lower than that calculated from the R-B3LYP. The apparent high energy of the spin restricted state is attributed to an overestimate of on-site Coulomb repulsion which is corrected in the unrestricted spin calculations. The stabilization of the total energy with spin polarization arises primarily from the stabilization of the x2-y2 band, such that the character of the eigenstates at the top of the valence band in the antiferromagnetic state becomes a strong mixture of Cu x2-y2/O p(sigma) and Cu z2/O' p(z). Since the Hohenberg-Kohn theorem requires the spin restricted and spin unrestricted calculations give exactly the same ground state energy and total density for the exact functionals, this large disparity in energy reflects the inadequacy of current functionals for describing the cuprates. This calls into question the use of band structures based on current restricted spin density functionals (including LDA) as a basis for single band theories of superconductivity in these materials.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev. B, for more information see http://www.firstprinciples.co

Efficient Derivation of Human Cardiac Precursors and Cardiomyocytes from Pluripotent Human Embryonic Stem Cells with Small Molecule Induction

To date, the lack of a suitable human cardiac cell source has been the major setback in regenerating the human myocardium, either by cell-based transplantation or by cardiac tissue engineering. Cardiomyocytes become terminally-differentiated soon after birth and lose their ability to proliferate. There is no evidence that stem/progenitor cells derived from other sources, such as the bone marrow or the cord blood, are able to give rise to the contractile heart muscle cells following transplantation into the heart. The need to regenerate or repair the damaged heart muscle has not been met by adult stem cell therapy, either endogenous or via cell delivery. The genetically stable human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) have unlimited expansion ability and unrestricted plasticity, proffering a pluripotent reservoir for in vitro derivation of large supplies of human somatic cells that are restricted to the lineage in need of repair and regeneration. Due to the prevalence of cardiovascular disease worldwide and acute shortage of donor organs, there is intense interest in developing hESC-based therapies as an alternative approach. However, how to channel the wide differentiation potential of pluripotent hESCs efficiently and predictably to a desired phenotype has been a major challenge for both developmental study and clinical translation. Conventional approaches rely on multi-lineage inclination of pluripotent cells through spontaneous germ layer differentiation, resulting in inefficient and uncontrollable lineage-commitment that is often followed by phenotypic heterogeneity and instability, hence, a high risk of tumorigenicity (see a schematic in Fig. 1A). In addition, undefined foreign/animal biological supplements and/or feeders that have typically been used for the isolation, expansion, and differentiation of hESCs may make direct use of such cell-specialized grafts in patients problematic. To overcome these obstacles, we have resolved the elements of a defined culture system necessary and sufficient for sustaining the epiblast pluripotence of hESCs, serving as a platform for de novo derivation of clinically-suitable hESCs and effectively directing such hESCs uniformly towards clinically-relevant lineages by small molecules (see a schematic in Fig. 1B). After screening a variety of small molecules and growth factors, we found that such defined conditions rendered nicotinamide (NAM) sufficient to induce the specification of cardiomesoderm direct from pluripotent hESCs that further progressed to cardioblasts that generated human beating cardiomyocytes with high efficiency (Fig. 2). We defined conditions for induction of cardioblasts direct from pluripotent hESCs without an intervening multi-lineage embryoid body stage, enabling well-controlled efficient derivation of a large supply of human cardiac cells across the spectrum of developmental stages for cell-based therapeutics

The Impact of Federal Spending on House Election Outcomes

While it is widely believed by academics, politicians, and the popular press that incumbent congressmen are rewarded by the electorate for bringing federal dollars to their district, the empirical evidence supporting that claim is extremely weak. One explanation for the failure to uncover the expected relationship between federal spending and election outcomes is that incumbents who expect to have difficulty being reelected are likely to exert greater effort in obtaining federal outlays. Since it is generally impossible to adequately measure this effort, the estimated impact of spending is biased downward due to an omitted variable bias. We address this estimation problem using instrumental variables. For each House district, we use spending outside the district but inside the state containing the district, as an instrument for spending in the district. Federal spending is affected by a large number of actors (e.g. governors, senators, mayors, and other House members in the state delegation), leading to positive correlations in federal spending across the House districts within states. However, federal spending outside of a district is unlikely to be strongly correlated with the strength of that district's electoral challenge. Thus, spending in other districts is a plausible instrument. In contrast to previous studies, we find strong evidence that non-transfer federal spending benefits congressional incumbents: an additional $100 per capita in such spending is worth as much as two percent of the popular vote. Additional transfer spending, on the other hand, does not appear to have any electoral effects.

Apportionment of primary and secondary organic aerosols in Southern California during the 2005 Study of Organic Aerosols in Riverside (SOAR-1)

Ambient sampling was conducted in Riverside, California during the 2005 Study of Organic Aerosols in Riverside to characterize the composition and sources of organic aerosol using a variety of state-of-the-art instrumentation and source apportionment techniques. The secondary organic aerosol (SOA) mass is estimated by elemental carbon and carbon monoxide tracer methods, water soluble organic carbon content, chemical mass balance of organic molecular markers, and positive matrix factorization of high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer data. Estimates obtained from each of these methods indicate that the organic fraction in ambient aerosol is overwhelmingly secondary in nature during a period of several weeks with moderate ozone concentrations and that SOA is the single largest component of PM1 aerosol in Riverside. Average SOA/OA contributions of 70−90% were observed during midday periods, whereas minimum SOA contributions of ~45% were observed during peak morning traffic periods. These results are contrary to previous estimates of SOA throughout the Los Angeles Basin which reported that, other than during severe photochemical smog episodes, SOA was lower than primary OA. Possible reasons for these differences are discussed

Efficient Derivation of Human Neuronal Progenitors and Neurons from Pluripotent Human Embryonic Stem Cells with Small Molecule Induction

There is a large unfulfilled need for a clinically-suitable human neuronal cell source for repair or regeneration of the damaged central nervous system (CNS) structure and circuitry in today's healthcare industry. Cell-based therapies hold great promise to restore the lost nerve tissue and function for CNS disorders. However, cell therapies based on CNS-derived neural stem cells have encountered supply restriction and difficulty to use in the clinical setting due to their limited expansion ability in culture and failing plasticity after extensive passaging1-3. Despite some beneficial outcomes, the CNS-derived human neural stem cells (hNSCs) appear to exert their therapeutic effects primarily by their non-neuronal progenies through producing trophic and neuroprotective molecules to rescue the endogenous cells1-3. Alternatively, pluripotent human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) proffer cures for a wide range of neurological disorders by supplying the diversity of human neuronal cell types in the developing CNS for regeneration1,4-7. However, how to channel the wide differentiation potential of pluripotent hESCs efficiently and predictably to a desired phenotype has been a major challenge for both developmental study and clinical translation. Conventional approaches rely on multi-lineage inclination of pluripotent cells through spontaneous germ layer differentiation, resulting in inefficient and uncontrollable lineage-commitment that is often followed by phenotypic heterogeneity and instability, hence, a high risk of tumorigenicity7-10. In addition, undefined foreign/animal biological supplements and/or feeders that have typically been used for the isolation, expansion, and differentiation of hESCs may make direct use of such cell-specialized grafts in patients problematic11-13. To overcome these obstacles, we have resolved the elements of a defined culture system necessary and sufficient for sustaining the epiblast pluripotence of hESCs, serving as a platform for de novo derivation of clinically-suitable hESCs and effectively directing such hESCs uniformly towards clinically-relevant lineages by small molecules14 (please see a schematic in Fig. 1). Retinoic acid (RA) does not induce neuronal differentiation of undifferentiated hESCs maintained on feeders1, 14. And unlike mouse ESCs, treating hESC-differentiated embryoid bodies (EBs) only slightly increases the low yield of neurons1, 14, 15. However, after screening a variety of small molecules and growth factors, we found that such defined conditions rendered retinoic acid (RA) sufficient to induce the specification of neuroectoderm direct from pluripotent hESCs that further progressed to neuroblasts that generated human neuronal progenitors and neurons in the developing CNS with high efficiency (Fig. 2). We defined conditions for induction of neuroblasts direct from pluripotent hESCs without an intervening multi-lineage embryoid body stage, enabling well-controlled efficient derivation of a large supply of human neuronal cells across the spectrum of developmental stages for cell-based therapeutics

TSPO interacts with VDAC1 and triggers a ROS-mediated inhibition of mitochondrial quality control

The 18-kDa TSPO (translocator protein) localizes on the outer mitochondrial membrane (OMM) and participates in cholesterol transport. Here, we report that TSPO inhibits mitochondrial autophagy downstream of the PINK1-PARK2 pathway, preventing essential ubiquitination of proteins. TSPO abolishes mitochondrial relocation of SQSTM1/p62 (sequestosome 1), and consequently that of the autophagic marker LC3 (microtubule-associated protein 1 light chain 3), thus leading to an accumulation of dysfunctional mitochondria, altering the appearance of the network. Independent of cholesterol regulation, the modulation of mitophagy by TSPO is instead dependent on VDAC1 (voltage-dependent anion channel 1), to which TSPO binds, reducing mitochondrial coupling and promoting an overproduction of reactive oxygen species (ROS) that counteracts PARK2-mediated ubiquitination of proteins. These data identify TSPO as a novel element in the regulation of mitochondrial quality control by autophagy, and demonstrate the importance for cell homeostasis of its expression ratio with VDAC1