Designing the Swedish Crime Harm Index: an Evidence-Based Strategy

Funder: University of CambridgeAbstract: Research Question: Which method for deriving a Crime Harm Index (Policing 10:171–183, 2016) for Sweden from criminal justice sources offers the best evidence for providing a sensitive indicator of differences in harm levels across offence categories? Data: The number of days of imprisonment for each offence category associated with five different kinds of scales were extracted and compared: consensus by an expert panel of judges, the statutory maximum penalties, statutory minimum penalties, the average of maximum and minimum penalties and the average of actual sentences imposed in a recent time period for each crime type. Unlike the UK, for which the Cambridge Crime Harm Index draws on sentencing guidelines, Sweden has no such guidelines to offer. Methods: The data were compared for sensitivity defined as the difference in length of imprisonment days between high and low severity crimes, as well as other characteristics of the data sources. Findings: Given the available alternatives, the sentencing data average of actual sentences handed down by crime type provided the greatest reliability and sensitivity across the penalties for offences of high and low severity. Applying that method to both crime trends and crime mapping produces substantially different results from counting all crimes with equal weight and can be used by police and others to allocate resources with greater precision in relation to harm prevention. Conclusions: On both empirical and normative grounds, the average sentences in a recent time period for each crime category provides the most sensitive and democratic method for establishing an officially recognized Swedish Crime Harm Index

Influence of microsatellite instability and KRAS and BRAF mutations on lymph node harvest in stage I–III colon cancers

Lymph node (LN) harvest is influenced by several factors, including tumor genetics. Microsatellite instability (MSI) is associated with improved node harvest, but the association to other genetic factors is largely unknown. Research methods included a prospective series of stage I–III colon cancer patients undergoing ex vivo sentinel-node sampling. The presence of MSI, KRAS mutations in codons 12 and 13, and BRAF V600E mutations was analyzed. Uni- and multivariate regression models for node sampling were adjusted for clinical, pathological and molecular features. Of 204 patients, 67% had an adequate harvest (≥12 nodes). Adequate harvest was highest in patients whose tumors exhibited MSI (79%; odds ratio [OR] 2.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2–4.9; P = 0.007) or were located in the proximal colon (73%; 2.8, 1.5–5.3; P = 0.002). In multiple linear regression, MSI was a significant predictor of the total LN count (P = 0.02). Total node count was highest for cancers with MSI and no KRAS/BRAF mutations. The independent association between MSI and a high LN count persisted for stage I and II cancers (P = 0.04). Tumor location in the proximal colon was the only significant predictor of an adequate LN harvest (adjusted OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2–4.9; P = 0.01). An increase in the total number of nodes harvested was not associated with an increase in nodal metastasis. In conclusion, number of nodes harvested is highest for cancers of the proximal colon and with MSI. The nodal harvest associated with MSI is influenced by BRAF and KRAS genotypes, even for cancers of proximal location. Mechanisms behind the molecular diversity and node yield should be further explored.publishedVersio

A randomised phase II multicentre trial of irinotecan (CPT-11) using four different schedules in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer

The purpose of this phase II trial was to compare the efficacy, safety and pharmacokinetics of four irinotecan schedules for the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer. In total, 174 5-fluorouracil pretreated patients were randomised to: arm A (n=41), 350 mg m(-2) irinotecan as a 90-min i.v. infusion q3 weeks; arm B (n=38), 125 mg m(-2) irinotecan as a 90-min i.v. infusion weekly x 4 weeks q6 weeks; arm C (n=46), 250 mg m(-2) irinotecan as a 90-min i.v. infusion q2 weeks; or arm D (n=49), 10 mg m(-2) day(-1) irinotecan as a 14-day continuous infusion q3 weeks. No significant differences in efficacy across the four arms were observed, although a shorter time to treatment failure was noted for arm D (1.7 months; P=0.02). Overall response rates were in the range 5-11%. Secondary end points included median survival (6.4-9.4 months), and time to progression (2.7-3.8 months) and treatment failure (1.7-3.2 months). Similarly, there were no significant differences in the incidence of grade 3-4 toxicities, although the toxicity profile between arms A, B, and C and D did differ. Generally, significantly less haematologic toxicity, alopecia and cholinergic syndrome were observed in arm D; however, there was a trend for increased gastrointestinal toxicity. Irinotecan is an effective and safe second-line treatment for colorectal cancer. The schedules examined yielded equivalent results, indicating that there is no advantage of the prolonged vs short infusion schedule

High-dose chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery versus surgery alone in esophageal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We aimed to assess whether high-dose preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) improves outcome in esophageal cancer patients compared to surgery alone and to define possible prognostic factors for overall survival.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Hundred-and-seven patients with disease stage IIA - III were treated with either surgery alone (n = 45) or high-dose preoperative CRT (n = 62). The data were collected retrospectively. Sixty-seven patients had adenocarcinomas, 39 squamous cell carcinomas and one undifferentiated carcinoma. CRT was given as three intensive chemotherapy courses by cisplatin 100 mg/m²on day 1 and 5-fluorouracil 1000 mg/m²/day, from day 1 through day 5 as continuous infusion. One course was given every 21 days. The last two courses were given concurrent with high-dose radiotherapy, 2 Gy/fraction and a median dose of 66 Gy. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis with log rank test was used to obtain survival data and Cox Regression multivariate analysis was used to define prognostic factors for overall survival.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Toxicity grade 3 of CRT occurred in 30 (48.4%) patients and grade 4 in 24 (38.7%) patients of 62 patients. One patient died of neutropenic infection (grade 5). Fifty percent (31 patients) in the CRT group did undergo the planned surgery. Postoperative mortality rate was 9% and 10% in the surgery alone and CRT+ surgery groups, respectively (p = 1.0). Median overall survival was 11.1 and 31.4 months in the surgery alone and CRT+ surgery groups, respectively (log rank test, p = 0.042). In the surgery alone group one, 3 and 5 year survival rates were 44%, 24% and 16%, respectively and in the CRT+ surgery group they were 68%, 44% and 29%, respectively. By multivariate analysis we found that age of patient, performance status, alcoholism and > = 4 pathological positive lymph nodes in resected specimen were significantly associated with overall survival, whereas high-dose preoperative CRT was not.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We found no significant survival advantage in esophageal cancer stage IIA-III following preoperative high-dose CRT compared to surgery alone. Patient's age, performance status, alcohol abuse and number of positive lymph nodes were prognostic factors for overall survival.</p

The Cinderella syndrome:why do malaria-infected cells burst at midnight?

An interesting quirk of many malaria infections is that all parasites within a host-millions of them-progress through their cell cycle synchronously. This surprising coordination has long been recognized, yet there is little understanding of what controls it or why it has evolved. Interestingly, the conventional explanation for coordinated development in other parasite species does not seem to apply here. We argue that for malaria parasites, a critical question has yet to be answered: is the coordination due to parasites bursting at the same time or at a particular time? We explicitly delineate these fundamentally different scenarios, possible underlying mechanistic explanations and evolutionary drivers, and discuss the existing corroborating data and key evidence needed to solve this evolutionary mystery. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd

Tumor Growth Rate Determines the Timing of Optimal Chronomodulated Treatment Schedules

In host and cancer tissues, drug metabolism and susceptibility to drugs vary in a circadian (24 h) manner. In particular, the efficacy of a cell cycle specific (CCS) cytotoxic agent is affected by the daily modulation of cell cycle activity in the target tissues. Anti-cancer chronotherapy, in which treatments are administered at a particular time each day, aims at exploiting these biological rhythms to reduce toxicity and improve efficacy of the treatment. The circadian status, which is the timing of physiological and behavioral activity relative to daily environmental cues, largely determines the best timing of treatments. However, the influence of variations in tumor kinetics has not been considered in determining appropriate treatment schedules. We used a simple model for cell populations under chronomodulated treatment to identify which biological parameters are important for the successful design of a chronotherapy strategy. We show that the duration of the phase of the cell cycle targeted by the treatment and the cell proliferation rate are crucial in determining the best times to administer CCS drugs. Thus, optimal treatment times depend not only on the circadian status of the patient but also on the cell cycle kinetics of the tumor. Then, we developed a theoretical analysis of treatment outcome (TATO) to relate the circadian status and cell cycle kinetic parameters to the treatment outcomes. We show that the best and the worst CCS drug administration schedules are those with 24 h intervals, implying that 24 h chronomodulated treatments can be ineffective or even harmful if administered at wrong circadian times. We show that for certain tumors, administration times at intervals different from 24 h may reduce these risks without compromising overall efficacy

Modeling the Effects of Cell Cycle M-phase Transcriptional Inhibition on Circadian Oscillation

Circadian clocks are endogenous time-keeping systems that temporally organize biological processes. Gating of cell cycle events by a circadian clock is a universal observation that is currently considered a mechanism serving to protect DNA from diurnal exposure to ultraviolet radiation or other mutagens. In this study, we put forward another possibility: that such gating helps to insulate the circadian clock from perturbations induced by transcriptional inhibition during the M phase of the cell cycle. We introduced a periodic pulse of transcriptional inhibition into a previously published mammalian circadian model and simulated the behavior of the modified model under both constant darkness and light–dark cycle conditions. The simulation results under constant darkness indicated that periodic transcriptional inhibition could entrain/lock the circadian clock just as a light–dark cycle does. At equilibrium states, a transcriptional inhibition pulse of certain periods was always locked close to certain circadian phases where inhibition on Per and Bmal1 mRNA synthesis was most balanced. In a light–dark cycle condition, inhibitions imposed at different parts of a circadian period induced different degrees of perturbation to the circadian clock. When imposed at the middle- or late-night phase, the transcriptional inhibition cycle induced the least perturbations to the circadian clock. The late-night time window of least perturbation overlapped with the experimentally observed time window, where mitosis is most frequent. This supports our hypothesis that the circadian clock gates the cell cycle M phase to certain circadian phases to minimize perturbations induced by the latter. This study reveals the hidden effects of the cell division cycle on the circadian clock and, together with the current picture of genome stability maintenance by circadian gating of cell cycle, provides a more comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon of circading gating of cell cycle

Fatigue and weight loss predict survival on circadian chemotherapy for metastatic colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND:Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia has been associated with prolonged survival selectively in patients on a conventional schedule (combined 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin [FOLFOX2]) but not on a chronomodulated schedule of the same drugs administered at specific circadian times (chronoFLO4). The authors hypothesized that the early occurrence of chemotherapy-induced symptoms correlated with circadian disruption would selectively hinder the efficacy of chronotherapy. METHODS:Fatigue and weight loss (FWL) were considered to be associated with circadian disruption based on previous data. Patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (n = 543) from an international phase 3 trial comparing FOLFOX2 with chronoFLO4 were categorized into 4 subgroups according to the occurrence of FWL or other clinically relevant toxicities during the initial 2 courses of chemotherapy. Multivariate Cox models were used to assess the role of toxicity on the time to progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS:The proportions of patients in the 4 subgroups were comparable in both treatment arms (P = .77). No toxicity was associated with TTP or OS on FOLFOX2. The median OS on FOLFOX2 ranged from 16.4 (95% confidence limits [CL], 7.2-25.6 months) to 19.8 months (95% CL, 17.7-22.0 months) according to toxicity subgroup (P = .45). Conversely, FWL, but no other toxicity, independently predicted for significantly shorter TTP (P < .0001) and OS (P = .001) on chronoFLO4. The median OS on chronoFLO4 was 13.8 months (95% CL, 10.4-17.2 months) or 21.1 months (95% CL, 19.0-23.1 months) according to presence or absence of chemotherapy-induced FWL, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Early onset chemotherapy-induced FWL was an independent predictor of poor TTP and OS only on chronotherapy. Dynamic monitoring to detect early chemotherapy-induced circadian disruption could allow the optimization of rapid chronotherapy and concomitant improvements in safety and efficacy