Who\u27s your expert? Use of an expert opinion survey to inform development of American Psychiatric Association practice guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: For many clinical questions in psychiatry, high-quality evidence is lacking. Credible practice guidelines for such questions depend on transparent, reproducible, and valid methods for assessing expert opinion. The objective of this study was to develop and demonstrate the feasibility of a method for assessing expert opinion to aid in the development of practice guidelines by the American Psychiatric Association (APA). METHODS: A snowball process initially soliciting nominees from three sets of professional leaders was used to identify experts on a guideline topic (psychiatric evaluation). In a Web-based survey, the experts were asked to rate their level of agreement that specific assessments improve specific outcomes when they are included in an initial psychiatric evaluation. The experts were also asked about their own practice patterns with respect to the doing of the assessments. The main outcome measures are the following: number of nominated experts, number of experts who participated in the survey, and number and nature of quantitative and qualitative responses. RESULTS: The snowball process identified 1,738 experts, 784 (45 %) of whom participated in the opinion survey. Participants generally, but not always, agreed or strongly agreed that the assessments asked about would improve specified outcomes. Participants wrote 716 comments explaining why they might not typically include some assessments in an initial evaluation and 1,590 comments concerning other aspects of the topics under consideration. CONCLUSIONS: The snowball process based on initial solicitation of Psychiatry\u27s leaders produced a large expert panel. The Web-based survey systematically assessed the opinions of these experts on the utility of specific psychiatric assessments, providing useful information to substantiate opinion-based practice guidelines on how to conduct a psychiatric evaluation. The considerable engagement of respondents shows promise for using this methodology in developing future APA practice guidelines

Association between reported exposure to road traffic and respiratory symptoms in children: evidence of bias

Background Many studies showing effects of traffic-related air pollution on health rely on self-reported exposure, which may be inaccurate. We estimated the association between self-reported exposure to road traffic and respiratory symptoms in preschool children, and investigated whether the effect could have been caused by reporting bias. Methods In a random sample of 8700 preschool children in Leicestershire, UK, exposure to road traffic and respiratory symptoms were assessed by a postal questionnaire (response rate 80%). The association between traffic exposure and respiratory outcomes was assessed using unconditional logistic regression and conditional regression models (matching by postcode). Results Prevalence odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for self-reported road traffic exposure, comparing the categories ‘moderate' and ‘dense', respectively, with ‘little or no' were for current wheezing: 1.26 (1.13-1.42) and 1.30 (1.09-1.55); chronic rhinitis: 1.18 (1.05-1.31) and 1.31 (1.11-1.56); night cough: 1.17 (1.04-1.32) and 1.36 (1.14-1.62); and bronchodilator use: 1.20 (1.04-1.38) and 1.18 (0.95-1.46). Matched analysis only comparing symptomatic and asymptomatic children living at the same postcode (thus exposed to similar road traffic) showed similar ORs, suggesting that parents of children with respiratory symptoms reported more road traffic than parents of asymptomatic children. Conclusions Our study suggests that reporting bias could explain some or even all the association between reported exposure to road traffic and disease. Over-reporting of exposure by only 10% of parents of symptomatic children would be sufficient to produce the effect sizes shown in this study. Future research should be based only on objective measurements of traffic exposur

The Impact of Socioeconomic Status on the Neural Substrates Associated with Pleasure

Low socio-economic status (SES) is associated with increased morbidity and premature mortality. Because tonic adversity relates to a diminished ability to experience pleasure, we hypothesized that subjects living in poverty would show diminished neural responsivity to positive stimuli in regions associated with positive experience and reward. Visual images were presented to twenty-two subjects in the context of a EPI-BOLD fMRI paradigm. Significant differences in neural responses between SES groups to poverty vs. neutral images were assessed, examining group, condition, and interaction effects. The data suggest that persons living in low-SES have neural experiences consistent with diminished interest in things generally enjoyed and point toward a possible explanation for the relationship between socioeconomic inequalities and mood disorders, such as depression, by SES

Socio-Cultural Games for Training and Analysis

This paper presents a theory for role playing simulation games intended to support analysts (and trainees) with generating and testing alternative competing hypotheses on how to influence world conflict situations. Simulated leaders and followers capable of playing these games are implemented in a cognitive modeling framework, called PMFserv, which covers value systems, personality and cultural factors, emotions, relationships, perception, stress/coping style and decision making. Of direct interest, as Section 1.1 explains, is codification and synthesis of best-of-breed social science models within PMFserv to improve the internal validity of the agent implementations. Sections 2 and 3 present this for leader profiling instruments and group membership decision-making, respectively. Section 4 then offers two real world case studies (The Third Crusade and SE Asia today) where the agent models are subjected to Turing and correspondence tests under each case study. In sum, substantial effort on game realism, best-of-breed social science models, and agent validation efforts is essential if analysis and training tools are to help explore cultural issues and alternative ways to influence outcomes. Such exercises, in turn, are likely to improve the state of the science as well

Висновок експерта в криміналістичних технологіях

Досліджується висновок експерта в аспекті технологій експертних та технологій слідчих. Встановлюються умови технологічності цього процесуального документу. Конкретизуються критерії та дії експерта з забезпечення процесуальних вимог при складанні висновку за результатами проведених досліджень, та операції з оцінки висновку експерта слідчим.Исследуется заключение эксперта в аспекте технологий экспертных и технологий следственных. Устанавливаются условия технологичности этого процессуального документа. Конкретизируются критерии и действия эксперта по обеспечению процессуальных требований при составлении заключения по результатам проведенных исследований, и операции по оценке заключения эксперта следователем.The expert's conclusion is investigated in the aspect of expertise technologies and investigation technologies . The conditions for manufacturability of this procedural document are established. The criteria and expert's actions providing the procedural requirements while preparation of the report on the research results, and the operation on the assessment of the expert conclusion by investigator are concretized

A simple asthma prediction tool for preschool children with wheeze or cough

BACKGROUND Many preschool children have wheeze or cough, but only some have asthma later. Existing prediction tools are difficult to apply in clinical practice or exhibit methodological weaknesses. OBJECTIVE We sought to develop a simple and robust tool for predicting asthma at school age in preschool children with wheeze or cough. METHODS From a population-based cohort in Leicestershire, United Kingdom, we included 1- to 3-year-old subjects seeing a doctor for wheeze or cough and assessed the prevalence of asthma 5 years later. We considered only noninvasive predictors that are easy to assess in primary care: demographic and perinatal data, eczema, upper and lower respiratory tract symptoms, and family history of atopy. We developed a model using logistic regression, avoided overfitting with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty, and then simplified it to a practical tool. We performed internal validation and assessed its predictive performance using the scaled Brier score and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS Of 1226 symptomatic children with follow-up information, 345 (28%) had asthma 5 years later. The tool consists of 10 predictors yielding a total score between 0 and 15: sex, age, wheeze without colds, wheeze frequency, activity disturbance, shortness of breath, exercise-related and aeroallergen-related wheeze/cough, eczema, and parental history of asthma/bronchitis. The scaled Brier scores for the internally validated model and tool were 0.20 and 0.16, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.76 and 0.74, respectively. CONCLUSION This tool represents a simple, low-cost, and noninvasive method to predict the risk of later asthma in symptomatic preschool children, which is ready to be tested in other populations

A High-Resolution Spectroscopic Search for the Remaining Donor for Tycho's Supernova

In this paper, we report on our analysis using Hubble Space Telescope astrometry and Keck-I HIRES spectroscopy of the central six stars of Tycho's supernova remnant (SN 1572). With these data, we measured the proper motions, radial velocities, rotational velocities, and chemical abundances of these objects. Regarding the chemical abundances, we do not confirm the unusu- ally high [Ni/Fe] ratio previously reported for Tycho-G. Rather, we find that for all metrics in all stars, none exhibit the characteristics expected from traditional SN Ia single-degenerate-scenario calculations. The only possible exception is Tycho-B, a rare, metal-poor A-type star; however, we are unable to find a suitable scenario for it. Thus, we suggest that SN 1572 cannot be explained by the standard single-degenerate model.Comment: 34 pages, 11 Figures, revised and resubmitted to Ap

Extragalactic Science, Cosmology and Galactic Archaeology with the Subaru Prime Focus Spectrograph (PFS)

The Subaru Prime Focus Spectrograph (PFS) is a massively-multiplexed fiber-fed optical and near-infrared 3-arm spectrograph (N_fiber=2400, 380<lambda<1260nm, 1.3 degree diameter FoV), offering unique opportunities in survey astronomy. Here we summarize the science case feasible for a survey of Subaru 300 nights. We describe plans to constrain the nature of dark energy via a survey of emission line galaxies spanning a comoving volume of 9.3 (Gpc/h)^3 in the redshift range 0.8<z<2.4. In each of 6 redshift bins, the cosmological distances will be measured to 3% precision via BAO, and redshift-space distortions will be used to constrain structure growth to 6% precision. In the GA program, radial velocities and chemical abundances of stars in the Milky Way and M31 will be used to infer the past assembly histories of spiral galaxies and the structure of their dark matter halos. Data will be secured for 10^6 stars in the Galactic thick-disk, halo and tidal streams as faint as V~22, including stars with V < 20 to complement the goals of the Gaia mission. A medium-resolution mode with R = 5000 to be implemented in the red arm will allow the measurement of multiple alpha-element abundances and more precise velocities for Galactic stars, elucidating the detailed chemo-dynamical structure and evolution of each of the main stellar components of the Milky Way Galaxy and of its dwarf spheroidal galaxies. For the extragalactic program, our simulations suggest the wide avelength range will be powerful in probing the galaxy population and its clustering over a wide redshift range. We propose to conduct a color-selected survey of 1<z<2 galaxies and AGN over 16 deg^2 to J~23.4, yielding a fair sample of galaxies with stellar masses above ~10^{10}Ms at z~2. A two-tiered survey of higher redshift LBGs and LAEs will quantify the properties of early systems close to the reionization epoch.Comment: This document describes the scientific program and requirements for the Subaru Prime Focus Spectrograph (PFS) project. Made significant revision based on studies for the Preliminary Design Review (PRD) held in Feb 2013. The higher-resolution paper file is available from http://member.ipmu.jp/masahiro.takada/pfs_astroph_rv.pd

Epidemiology, genetics, and subtyping of preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) in COPDGene.

BackgroundPreserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry (PRISm), defined as a reduced FEV1 in the setting of a preserved FEV1/FVC ratio, is highly prevalent and is associated with increased respiratory symptoms, systemic inflammation, and mortality. Studies investigating quantitative chest tomographic features, genetic associations, and subtypes in PRISm subjects have not been reported.MethodsData from current and former smokers enrolled in COPDGene (n = 10,192), an observational, cross-sectional study which recruited subjects aged 45-80 with ≥10 pack years of smoking, were analyzed. To identify epidemiological and radiographic predictors of PRISm, we performed univariate and multivariate analyses comparing PRISm subjects both to control subjects with normal spirometry and to subjects with COPD. To investigate common genetic predictors of PRISm, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS). To explore potential subgroups within PRISm, we performed unsupervised k-means clustering.ResultsThe prevalence of PRISm in COPDGene is 12.3%. Increased dyspnea, reduced 6-minute walk distance, increased percent emphysema and decreased total lung capacity, as well as increased segmental bronchial wall area percentage were significant predictors (p-value &lt;0.05) of PRISm status when compared to control subjects in multivariate models. Although no common genetic variants were identified on GWAS testing, a significant association with Klinefelter's syndrome (47XXY) was observed (p-value &lt; 0.001). Subgroups identified through k-means clustering include a putative "COPD-subtype", "Restrictive-subtype", and a highly symptomatic "Metabolic-subtype".ConclusionsPRISm subjects are clinically and genetically heterogeneous. Future investigations into the pathophysiological mechanisms behind and potential treatment options for subgroups within PRISm are warranted.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT000608764