Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect

We critically review the recent literature on currency unions, and discuss the methodological challenges posed by the empirical assessment of their costs and benefits. In the process, we provide evidence on the economic effects of the euro. In particular, and in contrast with estimates of the trade effect of other currency unions, we find that the impact of the euro on trade has been close to zero. After reviewing the costs and benefits, we conclude with some open questions on normative and positive aspects of the theory of currency unions, emphasizing the need for a unified welfare-based framework to weigh their costs and gains.Currency union, Integration, Exchange Rage, Trade

Trading Partners and Trading Volumes: Implementing the Helpman-Melitz-Rubinstein Model Empirically

Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein (2008)-HMR-present a rich theoretical model to study the determinants of bilateral trade flows across countries. The model is then empirically implemented through a two-stage estimation procedure. This note seeks to clarify some econometric aspects of the estimation approach used by HMR and explore the consequences of possible departures from the maintained distributional assumptions.Gravity equation, Heteroskedasticity, Jensens inequality

On the Existence of the Maximum Likelihood Estimates for Poisson Regression

We note that the existence of the maximum likelihood estimates for Poisson regression depends on the data configuration. Because standard software does not check for this problem, the practitioner may be surprised to find that in some applications estimation of the Poisson regression is unusually difficult or even impossible. More seriously, the estimation algorithm may lead to spurious maximum likelihood estimates. We identify the signs of the non-existence of the maximum likelihood estimates and propose a simple empirical strategy to single out the regressors causing this type of identification failure.Poisson estimation, gravity equation

Is it different for zeros? Discriminating between models for non-negative data with many zeros

In many economic applications, the variate of interest is non-negative and its distribution is characterized by a mass-point at zero and a long right-tail. Many regression strategies have been proposed to deal with data of this type. Although there has been a long debate in the literature on the appropriateness of different models, formal statistical tests to choose between the competing specifications, or to assess the validity of the preferred model, are not often used in practice. In this paper we propose a novel and simple regression-based specification test that can be used to test these models against each other.

Estimating the Extensive Margin of Trade

Understanding and quantifying the determinants of the number of sectors or firms exporting in a given country is of relevance for the assessment of trade policies. Estimation of models for the number of sectors, however, poses a challenge because the dependent variable has both a lower and upper bound, implying that the partial effects of the explanatory variables on the conditional mean of the dependent variable cannot be constant and must approach zero as the dependent variable approaches the bounds. We argue that ignoring these bounds by using OLS or count-data models that ignore the upper bound can lead to erroneous conclusions due to the model's misspecification. We propose a flexible specification that accounts for the doubly-bounded nature of the dependent variable. We empirically investigate the problem and the proposed solution, and find significant differences between estimates obtained with the proposed estimator and those obtained with standard approaches

The impact of a health promotion program on toddlers' socio-emotional development: a cluster randomized study

BACKGROUND: The first 3 years of life are a critical period for the development of socio-emotional skills, highlighting the importance of socio-emotional development in early childhood. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a health promotion intervention program on the socio-emotional development of children aged 12 to 42 months during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A total of 344 children from 15 childcare centers participated in this study, with six centers in the intervention group and nine in the control group. Childcare teachers in the intervention group received a 6-month training program aimed at promoting healthy lifestyles, including topics such as diet, sleep, physical activity, and sedentary behavior. Sociodemographic and anthropometric measures were assessed at baseline, and socio-emotional development was assessed using the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development - Third Edition (Bayley-III) at baseline and post-intervention. RESULTS: After the intervention, a significant difference in socio-emotional development was observed between children with mothers of varying education levels. Specifically, children whose mothers had lower education levels demonstrated significantly greater socio-emotional development (B = 19.000, p = 0.028) compared to the control group. In contrast, there was no significant difference in socio-emotional development among children with mothers from higher education levels. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that intervention programs for childcare teachers can effectively promote healthy socio-emotional development in children from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds. Future intervention programs should consider tailoring their approaches to target disadvantaged populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This cluster randomized controlled trial was registered in the Clinical Trials database/platform on 09/09/2019 (number NCT04082247).- Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian(221669

Valoración Del Desempeño Del Proceso De Reparaciones En Un Sistema De Distribución De Electricidad

Este artículo presenta una metodología para valorar el desempeño del proceso de reparaciones en un sistema de distribución local de electricidad (SDL), la cual modela los recursos para reparación y su logística como un sistema de colas cuya entrada y cuyo servicio son procesos estocásticos puntuales estacionarios o no estacionarios. El cálculo de los índices de desempeño del proceso se realiza mediante un procedimiento de simulación de Montecarlo secuencial. Luego de analizar un SDL típico colombiano, se encontró que el tiempo de espera es el índice que mejor refleja el desempeño del proceso de reparaciones

Vlasništvo nad nekretninama crkvenih i samostanskih ustanova na orebićkome području u 19. stoljeću

U radu se na temelju katastarske dokumentacije nastale u sklopu zemljišne izmjere, koju je Austrija provela u prvoj polovici 19. stoljeća, analizira vlasništvo nad nekretninama crkava i samostanskih ustanova na orebićkome području. Iako su dubrovačke zakonske odredbe od polovice 14. stoljeća ograničile oporučno ostavljanje nekretnina svim crkvenim ustanovama, mnoge su od njih kupovinama, donacijama ili oporučnim legatima došle u posjed pozamašnoga broja nekretnina. U 19. stoljeću samostanski redovi bilježe mnogo veće posjede u vlasništvu od crkava, a na orebićkome području najveći broj građevinskih objekata i najveće zemljišne posjede ima dominikanski samostan iz Dubrovnika

Derivation of third–order vertical velocity turbulence moment in the convective boundary layer from large eddy simulation data: an application to the dispersion modeling

AbstractA new formulation for the vertical turbulent velocity third statistical moment in a convective boundary layer is proposed. The parameterization is based directly on the definition of this higher order moment, with velocity skewness and variance being calculated from large eddy simulation data. The formulation, included in a Lagrangian stochastic dispersion model, has been tested and compared with expressions for the third moment obtained from experimental data and reported in the literature, using concentration data from field experiments. The application of a statistical evaluation shows that the proposed parameterization has one of the best overall adjustments to the data

GESTORES E AGENTES SOCIAIS DE ESPORTE E LAZER NA BAIXADA MARANHENSE: um estudo dos recursos humanos para o Sistema Nacional de Esporte e Lazer

O governo federal criou, em 1998, o Sistema Brasileiro do Esporte, que abrange o Ministério do Esporte, o Conselho Nacional do Esporte e o Sistema Nacional de Esporte, concebendo-o como objeto de política de estado.Este artigo refere-se a um projeto de pesquisa em desenvolvimento pelo Núcleo/UFMA do Centro de Desenvolvimento do Esporte Recreativo e do Lazer (REDE CEDES), financiado pelo MCT/FINEP/ME. Investiga o perfil dos sujeitos responsáveis pelo gerenciamento e execução direta das políticas públicas de esporte e lazer em dez municípios da baixada maranhense. Serão utilizadas entrevistas semi-estruturadas, aplicadas aos gestores públicos municipais e questionários aos agentes sociais de alguns segmentos da sociedade. Encontra-se na fase de pesquisa bibliográfica e das primeiras visitas ao campo. A conclusão será em 2008, quando apresentar-se-á o relatório final.Rede CEDE