Exploring parameter sensitivities of the land surface using a locally coupled land-atmosphere model

This paper presents a multicriteria analysis that explores the sensitivity of the land surface to changes in both land and atmospheric parameters, in terms of reproducing surface heat fluxes and ground temperature; for the land parameters, offline sensitivity analyses were also conducted for comparison to infer the influence of land-atmosphere interactions. A simple "one-at-a-time" sensitivity analysis was conducted first to filter out some insensitive parameters, followed by a multicriteria sensitivity analysis using the multiobjective generalized sensitivity analysis algorithm. The models used were the locally coupled National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) single-column community climate model and the offline NCAR land surface model, driven and evaluated by a summer intensive operational periods (IOP) data set from the southern Great Plains. As expected, the results show that land-atmosphere interactions (with or without land-atmosphere parameter interactions) can have significant influences on the sensitivity of the land surface to changes in the land parameters, and the single-criterion sensitivities can be significantly different from the multicriteria sensitivity. These findings are mostly model and data independent and can be generally useful, regardless of the model/data dependence of the sensitivities of individual parameters. The exceptionally high sensitivities of the selected atmospheric parameters in a multicriteria sense (and in particular for latent heat) appeal for adequate attention to the specification of effective values of these parameters in an atmospheric model. Overall, this study proposes an effective framework of multicriteria sensitivity analysis beneficial to future studies in the development and parameter estimation of other complex (offline or coupled) land surface models. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union

ANALYSIS OF MORTUARY VARIABILITY, DIET, AND AREA-OF-BIRTH AT THE EARLY BRONZE AGE CEMETERY OF KHUZHIR-NUGE XIV, CIS-BAIKAL, SIBERIA

This thesis explores mortuary and biogeochemical correlates at the Early Bronze Age (4597+/-76 to 3726+/-34 cal. BP; Weber et al. 2016) cemetery of Khuzhir-Nuge XIV (K14) in the Little Sea microregion of Cis-Baikal, Siberia. Previous research using the bioarchaeology of life histories approach (Zvelebil and Weber 2013) has indicated that there are mortuary correlates to diet and area-of-birth (Shepard 2016, and Weber and Goriunova 2013), however neither investigated the full range of mortuary treatment present at K14. Shepard (2016) analyzed area-of-birth and interment in similar rows of graves, and Weber and Goriunova (2013) analyzed diet, area-of-birth, interment with red deer canine pendants, and cluster in K14. This thesis investigates correlates with interment with nine artifact categories (implements, ornaments, kaolinite cylindrical beads, nephrite artifacts, lithic arrowheads, wood working implements, hide working implements, hunting implements, and meat butchering implements) and four mortuary treatment categories (fire use, head treatment, grave disturbance, and grave pit lining) using log linear models (Agresti 2007). Using log linear models (Agresti 2007), the relationships between the two previously identified diet categories (game-fish-seal; GFS, and game-fish; GF), the two areas-of-birth (broadly categorized as local (to the Little Sea) and nonlocal), and mortuary practices at K14 are identified and analyzed. Each mortuary variable was tested three times in order to fully explore any possible relationship between that variable and (1) diet and area-of-birth, (2) diet and cluster in K14, and (3) area-of-birth and cluster in K14. Since cluster in K14 is consistently identified as an influential factor for mortuary treatment and has correlates to diet and area-of-birth, including it in these tests helped identify which mortuary treatment variables are related to cluster in K14 or are related to diet and/or area-of-birth. Interestingly, while diet and area-of-birth are consistently related to one another in every test performed, they are not related to the same mortuary variables. Furthermore, when cluster in K14 is included in the analysis, all mortuary variables (with the exception of grave disturbance and the relationship between diet and area-of-birth) are related to cluster in K14. This suggests that there are multiple, simultaneous influencing factors on mortuary treatment that are related to diet, area-of-birth, and cluster in K14. While there are undoubtedly other influencing factors on mortuary treatment for these individuals based on aspects of their life histories that may never be fully understood or identified, understanding how diet and area-of-birth relate to mortuary treatment provides important information on Glazkovo lifeways in the Little Sea microregion and the Cis-Baikal in general

Parameter estimation of a land surface scheme using multicriteria methods

Attempts to create models of surface-atmosphere interactions with greater physical realism have resulted in land surface schemes (LSS) with large numbers of parameters. The hope has been that these parameters can be assigned typical values by inspecting the literature. The potential for using the various observational data sets that are now available to extract plot-scale estimates for the parameters of a complex LSS via advanced parameter estimation methods developed for hydrological models is explored in this paper. Results are reported for two case studies using data sets of typical quality but very different location and climatological regime (ARM-CART and Tucson). The traditional single-criterion methods were found to be of limited value. However, a multicriteria approach was found to be effective in constraining the parameter estimates into physically plausible ranges when observations on at least one appropriate heat flux and one properly selected state variable are available. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union

Parameter sensitivity analysis for different complexity land surface models using multicriteria methods

A multicriteria algorithm, the MultiObjective Generalized Sensitivity Analysis (MOGSA), was used to investigate the parameter sensitivity of five different land surface models with increasing levels of complexity in the physical representation of the vegetation (BUCKET, CHASM, BATS 1, Noah, and BATS 2) at five different sites representing crop land/ pasture, grassland, rain forest, cropland, and semidesert areas. The methodology allows for the inclusion of parameter interaction and does not require assumptions of independence between parameters, while at the same time allowing for the ranking of several single-criterion and a global multicriteria sensitivity indices. The analysis required on the order of 50 thousand model runs. The results confirm that parameters with similar "physical meaning" across different model structures behave in different ways depending on the model and the locations. It is also shown that after a certain level an increase in model structure complexity does not necessarily lead to better parameter identifiability, i.e., higher sensitivity, and that a certain level of overparameterization is observed. For the case of the BATS 1 and BATS 2 models, with essentially the same model structure but a more sophisticated vegetation model, paradoxically, the effect on parameter sensitivity is mainly reflected in the sensitivity of the soil-related parameter. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union

Sensitivity analysis of a land surface scheme using multicriteria methods

Attempts to model surface-atmosphere interactions with greater physical realism have resulted in complex land surface schemes (LSS) with large numbers of parameters. A companion paper describes a multicriteria calibration procedure for extracting plot-scale estimates of the preferred ranges of these parameters from the various observational data sets that are now available. A complementary procedure is presented in this paper that provides an objective determination of the multicriteria sensitivity of the modeled variables to the parameters, thereby allowing the number of calibration parameters and hence the computational effort to be reduced. Two case studies are reported for the BATS model using data sets of typical quality but very different location and climatological regime (ARM-CART and Tucson). The sensitivity results were found to be consistent with the physical properties of the different environments, thereby supporting the reasonableness of the model formulation. Further, when the insensitive parameters are omitted from the calibration process, there is little degradation in the quality of the model description and little change in the preferred range of the remaining parameters. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union

A comparison of new and existing rootstocks to reduce canker of apple trees caused by Neonectria ditissima (Nectriaceae, Hypocreales)

The grafting of apple rootstocks on to scions confers benefts including reduced tree size/dwarfng for trellis based growing systems, increased tolerance to physiological stress, and pest and disease management. The current study investigated the efect of rootstock selection on canker and tree death using eight common rootstocks M9 337, M9 337 with Golden Delicious (GD) interstock, M9 EMLA, MM106, M116, M26, Geneva® G11 and G41, in addition to six advanced selections from the NIAB East Malling apple breeding programme EMR-001—EMR-006, all grafted with Gala scions. One of the rootstocks, M9 377 was also grafted with a GD interstock. Two locations in England were selected, the frst at East Malling, Kent, the second, at Newent, Gloucestershire. Several variables were analysed including cumulative numbers of dead trees per rootstock from 2017 to 2020, number of rootstock ‘A type’ cankers, number of scion mainstem ‘B type’ cankers, and number of peripheral ‘C+D+E’ branch cankers at the Kent and Gloucestershire locations in the fourth and fnal assessment year of 2020. Kendall’s rank correlation was used to test if trunk circumference (a measure of tree vigour) and canker were statistically dependant. Results showed that in Kent, there were signifcant diferences between rootstocks for scion B cankers and peripheral C+D+E cankers. There were no signifcant diferences found between rootstocks for rootstock A cankers at Kent, or any of the three canker types in Gloucestershire. There were up to 31.25% dead trees in Kent (EMR-004), and 30% in Gloucestershire (M9 337 with GD interstock, M26), but there were no signifcant diferences in number of dead trees due to rootstock type in either Kent or Gloucestershire. The Kendall’s rank correlation analysis indicated there was almost no dependence of trunk circumference on canker. The three rootstocks with the overall lowest susceptibility to canker were M116, EMR-006, and EMR-004. The industry standard rootstocks M9 EMLA and M9 337 were ranked 12 and 14, and with EMR-001 were the three worst performing rootstocks. The Geneva® rootstocks G11 was ranked 6, and G41 was ranked 11. An interplay of factors are likely involved in the development of canker including location and environmental efects—rainfall, relative humidity, temperature, wind, soil type, topography, aspect, and other seasonal infection processes including pathogen inoculum load, and rainsplash of inoculum between trees and within individual trees, the genetics and physiology of each scion/rootstock combination, water and nutritional status of trees, hormonal and molecular signalling, and orchard management including pruning and removal of cankers

Hydrothermal base catalysed treatment of Kraft lignin - time dependent analysis and a techno-economic evaluation for carbon fibre applications

The hydrothermal base-catalysed treatment of industrial Kraft lignin (KL) is investigated as a basis for production of a sustainable carbon fibre precursor, with a focus on the time-dependent evolution and impact on precursor properties. Hydrothermal treatment was performed at T = 300 °C and p = 180 bar, with the retention time (tret) varied between 8, 12, 16, 20, and 24 mins. Molecular weight distribution and thermal stability of the processed lignin were close to maximum after 8 min, and 12–16 min respectively. Chemical modification was found to continue (e.g. demethoxylation) over the entire tret range (24 min). Analysis of the recovered oily phase indicated catechol derivatives were stable end-products with, e.g., vanillin and guaiacol as intermediates. A techno-economic analysis indicated a price of ca. 1600 €/t at a production capacity of 10 kt/a is achievable, with main cost-drivers being lignin (60%), fixed costs (20%), and energy (10%)