Gridded soil surface nitrogen surplus on grazing and agricultural land: Impact of land use maps

Excess N application on agricultural land greatly impacts the environment in multiple ways, driven by population growth and improving quality of human diets. Therefore, it is essential to quantify the sources of the emissions of N compounds and their determinants (e.g. biological N fixation (BNF), mineral fertilizer, manure N and N deposition) to develop adequate mitigation measures. Here we aim at comprehensively mapping and quantifying N fluxes on agricultural land to analyze these sources on different scales. As underlying grazing land maps used for such calculations are fairly different in terms of methodology and definition and thus spatial extent and pattern, we investigate how this diversity in grazing land maps affects quantification of N indicators. We compared three different global grazing land maps and analyzed the propagation of differences to discrepancies in N indicators calculated from them. We discovered that (i) area differences propagated to high discrepancies in N surplus mostly in Asia, and to a minor extent also in Europe and Northern Africa. (ii) BNF constitutes an important translator for differences on grazing land to N indicators, while also being a source of further uncertainty, which warrants further scrutiny. (iii) A more inclusive definition of grazing land results in overall less N surplus given the larger areas included but allows to provide a more comprehensive estimate of the influence of human activity on the N cycle. This study is the first to provide an in-depth analysis of the effect of grazing land and agricultural land area differences on various N budget terms and N indicator calculation, highlighting opportunities for further research, and the importance of a comprehensive accounting of N surplus when using an inclusive definition of grazing land

Greenhouse gas implications of mobilizing agricultural biomass for energy: a reassessment of global potentials in 2050 under different food-system pathways

Global bioenergy potentials have been the subject of extensive research and continued controversy. Due to vast uncertainties regarding future yields, diets and other influencing parameters, estimates of future agricultural biomass potentials vary widely. Most scenarios compatible with ambitious climate targets foresee a large expansion of bioenergy, mainly from energy crops that needs to be kept consistent with projections of agriculture and food production. Using the global biomass balance model BioBaM, we here present an assessment of agricultural bioenergy potentials compatible with the Food and Agriculture Organization's (2018) 'Alternative pathways to 2050' projections. Mobilizing biomass at larger scales may be associated with systemic feedbacks causing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, e.g. crop residue removal resulting in loss of soil carbon stocks and increased emissions from fertilization. To assess these effects, we derive 'GHG cost supply-curves', i.e. integrated representations of biomass potentials and their systemic GHG costs. Livestock manure is most favourable in terms of GHG costs, as anaerobic digestion yields reductions of GHG emissions from manure management. Global potentials from intensive livestock systems are about 5 EJ/yr. Crop residues can provide up to 20 EJ/yr at moderate GHG costs. For energy crops, we find that the medium range of literature estimates (~40 to 90 EJ/yr) is only compatible with FAO yield and human diet projections if energy plantations expand into grazing areas (~4–5 million km2) and grazing land is intensified globally. Direct carbon stock changes associated with perennial energy crops are beneficial for climate mitigation, yet there are—sometimes considerable—'opportunity GHG costs' if one accounts the foregone opportunity of afforestation. Our results indicate that the large potentials of energy crops foreseen in many energy scenarios are not freely and unconditionally available. Disregarding systemic effects in agriculture can result in misjudgement of GHG saving potentials and flawed climate mitigation strategies

Data-driven estimates of global nitrous oxide emissions from croplands

Croplands are the single largest anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N2O) globally, yet their estimates remain difficult to verify when using Tier 1 and 3 methods of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we re-evaluate global cropland-N2O emissions in 1961–2014, using N-rate-dependent emission factors (EFs) upscaled from 1206 field observations in 180 global distributed sites and high-resolution N inputs disaggregated from sub-national surveys covering 15593 administrative units. Our results confirm IPCC Tier 1 default EFs for upland crops in 1990–2014, but give a ∼15% lower EF in 1961–1989 and a ∼67% larger EF for paddy rice over the full period. Associated emissions (0.82 ± 0.34 Tg N yr–1) are probably one-quarter lower than IPCC Tier 1 global inventories but close to Tier 3 estimates. The use of survey-based gridded N-input data contributes 58% of this emission reduction, the rest being explained by the use of observation-based non-linear EFs. We conclude that upscaling N2O emissions from site-level observations to global croplands provides a new benchmark for constraining IPCC Tier 1 and 3 methods. The detailed spatial distribution of emission data is expected to inform advancement towards more realistic and effective mitigation pathways

Historical trends of riverine nitrogen loading from land to the East China Sea: a model-based evaluation

East Asia is the one of the hotspot regions with too much reactive nitrogen (N) inputs from anthropogenic sources. Here, we evaluated historical total inorganic N (TIN) load from land to sea through the rivers surrounding the East China sea using biogeochemical model 'VISIT' combined with a newly developed VISIT Off-line River Nitrogen scheme (VISIToRN). VISIT calculated N cycling in both natural and agricultural ecosystems and VISIToRN calculated inorganic N transport and riverine denitrification through the river channels at half degree spatial resolution. Between 1961 and 2010, the estimated TIN load from land to the sea surrounding the East China Sea increased from 2.7 Tg-N Year−1 to 5.5 Tg-N Year−1, a twofold increase, while the anthropogenic N input to the East China Sea basin (N deposition, N fertilizer, manure, and human sewage) increased from 12.9 Tg-N Year−1 to 36.9 Tg-N Year−1, an increase of about 3 times. This difference in the rate of increase is due in large part to the terrestrial nitrogen budget, and the results of the model balance indicate that TIN load to rivers has been suppressed by improvements in fertilizer application rates, harvesting on agricultural land, and nitrogen accumulation in forests. The results of the model balance showed that the increase rate of nitrogen runoff from Chinese rivers has been declining since 2000. In our estimation by VISIToRN, the amount of nitrogen removed by river denitrification in the river channel before the mouth is not negligible, ranging from 1.6 Tg-N Year−1 to 2.16 Tg-N Year−1. The N load from agricultural sources is still significant and needs to be further reduced. TIN load tended to increase in years with high precipitation. In order to effectively reduce TIN load, it is necessary to consider climate change-adaptive agricultural N management

Reducing Ammonia Emissions from Dairy Cattle Production via Cost-Effective Manure Management Techniques in China

This study analyzed ammonia reduction potential and related costs and benefits of several ammonia emission reduction technologies applicable for dairy production from cattle in China. Specifically, these included diet manipulation, manure acidification, manure/slurry covers, and solid manure compaction. Ammonia emissions for China were estimated using the GAINS and NUFER models, while mitigation potentials of technologies were determined from laboratory studies. Ammonia reduction potentials from dairy production in China ranged from 0.8 to 222 Gg NH3 year–1 for the selected technologies. Implementation costs ranged from a savings of US$15 kg–1 NH3 abated to an expenditure of US$45 kg–1 NH3 abated, while the total implementation costs varied from a savings of US$1.5 billion in 2015 to an expenditure of a similar size. The best NH3 reduction technology was manure acidification, while the most cost-effective option was diet optimization with lower crude protein input. For most abatement options, material costs were the critical element of overall costs. The fertilizer value of manure could partly offset the implementation cost of the options tested. Furthermore, benefits due to avoided health damage, as a result of reducing NH3 emissions, could make all abatement options (except for manure compaction) profitable on the scale of a national economy

GAINS ASIA: Scenarios for cost-effective control of air pollution and greenhouse gases in India

There is growing recognition that a comprehensive and combined analysis of air pollution and climate change could reveal important synergies of emission control measures. Insight into the multiple benefits of measures could make emission controls economically more viable, both in industrialized and developing countries. However, while scientific understanding on many individual aspects of air pollution and climate change has considerably increased in the last years, little attention has been paid to a holistic analysis of the interactions between both problems. The Greenhouse gas - Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model has been developed as a tool to identify emission control strategies that maximize synergies between the control of local air quality and the mitigation of greenhouse emissions. GAINS investigates how specific mitigation measures simultaneously influence different pollutants that threaten human health via the exposure of fine particles and ground-level ozone, damage natural vegetation and crops, contribute to climate change. In recent years the GAINS model has been implemented for India in collaboration between the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). This report presents a first analysis conducted with the GAINS model that highlights how strategies to control local air quality could be designed in such a way that co-benefits on greenhouse gas mitigation could be maximized

Urban nitrogen budgets: Evaluating and comparing the path of nitrogen through cities for improved management

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) released to the environment is a cause of multiple environmental threats. While Nr flows are often only analyzed in an agricultural context, consumption and emission takes place in the urban environment, and opportunities for Nr recycling and effective policy implementation for mitigation often appear in cities. Since little information is available on the bigger picture of Nr flows through the urban environment, these opportunities often remain unexploited. Here we developed a framework to model Nr pathways through urban and surrounding areas, which we applied to four test areas (Beijing and Shijiazhuang (China), Vienna (Austria), and Zielona Góra (Poland)). Using indicators such as recycling rates and Nr surplus, we estimated environmental risks and recycling potentials based on Nr flows and their entry and exit points. Our findings show marked differences between the core and surrounding areas of each city, with the former being a site of Nr consumption with largest flows associated with households, and the latter a site of (agricultural) production with largest flows associated with industry (fertilizers) and urban plants. As a result, Nr transgresses the core areas in a rather linear manner with only 0-5 % being re-used, with inputs from Nr contained in food and fuels and outputs most commonly as non-reactive N2 emissions to the atmosphere from wastewater treatment and combustion processes. While the peri-urban areas show a higher Nr recycling rate (6-14 %), Nr accumulation and emissions from cultivated land pose significant environmental challenges, indicating the need for mitigation measures. We found potential to increase nitrogen use efficiency through improved Nr management on cultivated areas and to increase Nr recycling using urine and sewage sludge as synthetic fertilizer substitutes. Hence our framework for urban nitrogen budgets not only allows for consistent budgeting but helps identify common patterns, potentially harmful flows and Nr recycling potential

The fate of nitrogen in the urban area – The case of Zielona Góra, Poland

The anthropogenic change of the nitrogen (N) cycle is strongly triggered by urban demand (such as food and meat consumption, energy demand and transport). As a consequence of high population density, impacts on human health through water and air pollution also concentrate on a city environment. Thus, an urban perspective on a predominantly rural pollution becomes relevant. Urban N budgets may be considered less intrinsically connected, so that separation of an agri-food chain and an industry-combustion chain is warranted. Results have been obtained for Zielona Góra, Poland, a city of 140,000 inhabitants characterized by domestic and transport sources and forest-dominated surroundings. In addition to food imports in Zielona Gora amounting to about 30 %, in the suburban area a significant share of N amounting to 41 % is related to fertilizer imports. The remaining imports are in fuel, electronics, textiles, plastics and paper. Most of the agri-food N (45 %) is denitrified in wastewater treatment. N associated with combustion (mainly NOx emissions from vehicles) represents a much smaller share than N entering via the agri-food system, amounting to 22 % of the total N imports. This overall picture is maintained also when specifically addressing the city center, with the exception of mineral fertilizer that plays a much smaller role, with just 7 % of N imports to the city