The Importance of Aggregation in the Dynamics of Host-Parasite Interaction in Wildlife: A Mathematical Approach

This study examines, from a modelling point of view, the dynamics of infectious diseases in wildlife caused by macroparasites and by tick-borne infections. The overall aim was to investigate the important role played by parasite aggregation in the dynamics of both systems. For macroparasites we first developed some deterministic models that incorporate explicit mechanisms for generating aggregation in parasite distribution, specifically multiple infections and host heterogeneity. We explored the role of aggregation in host regulation and in determining a threshold value for parasite establishment. A large aggregation makes it more difficult for parasites both to regulate hosts, and to get established in a population at carrying capacity. Furthermore, the stabilization yielded by aggregation strongly depends on the mechanism that produces the aggregation. We then introduced some uncertainties into the host-macroparasite system, presenting an individual-based stochastic model that incorporated the same assumptions as the deterministic model. Stochastic simulations, using parameter values based on some real case studies, preserved many features of the deterministic model, like the average value of the variables and the approximate length of the cycles. An important difference is that, even when deterministic models yield damped oscillations, stochastic simulations yield apparently sustained oscillations. The amplitude of such oscillations may be so large as to threaten the parasites’ persistence. With respect to tick-borne diseases we presented a general model framework that incorporated both viraemic and non-viraemic routes of infections. We compute the threshold for disease persistence and study its dependence on the parameters and on host densities. The effects of tick aggregation and correlation between different tick stages on the host have both an important effect on infection persistence, if non-viraemic transmission occurred. In the case of Lyme Disease and Tick-borne Encephalitis (TBE) in Trentino (northern Italy) we showed some numerical results, using parameter estimates based on a detailed field study, and explored the effects of uncertainty on the endemic equilibrium of both diseases assuming only viraemic transmission for Lyme Disease while for TBE we permitted only non-viraemic transmission through co-feeding ticks. In conclusion we have examined the patterns and changes of aggregation in a number of contrasting systems and believe that these studies highlight both the importance of considering heterogeneities in modelling host-parasite interactions and, more specifically, modelling the biological mechanisms that produce aggregation in parasite distributions

From eggs to bites: do ovitrap data provide reliable estimates of Aedes albopictus biting females?

Background. Aedes albopictus is an aggressive invasive mosquito species that represents a serious health concern not only in tropical areas, but also in temperate regions due to its role as vector of arboviruses. Estimates of mosquito biting rates are essential to account for vector-human contact in models aimed to predict the risk of arbovirus autochthonous transmission and outbreaks, as well as nuisance thresholds useful for correct planning of mosquito control interventions. Methods targeting daytime and outdoor biting Ae. albopictus females (e.g., Human Landing Collection, HLC) are expensive and difficult to implement in large scale schemes. Instead, egg-collections by ovitraps are the most widely used routine approach for large-scale monitoring of the species. The aim of this work was to assess whether ovitrap data can be exploited to estimate numbers of adult biting Ae. albopictus females and whether the resulting relationship could be used to build risk models helpful for decision-makers in charge of planning of mosquito-control activities in infested areas. Method. Ovitrap collections and HLCs were carried out in hot-spots of Ae. albopictus abundance in Rome (Italy) along a whole reproductive season. The relationship between the two sets of data was assessed by generalized least square analysis, taking into account meteorological parameters. Result. The mean number of mosquito females/person collected by HLC in 150 (i.e., females/HLC) and the mean number of eggs/day were 18.9 ± 0.7 and 39.0 ± 2.0, respectively. The regression models found a significant positive relationship between the two sets of data and estimated an increase of one biting female/person every five additional eggs found in ovitraps. Both observed and fitted values indicated presence of adults in the absence of eggs in ovitraps. Notably, wide confidence intervals of estimates of biting females based on eggs were observed. The patterns of exotic arbovirus outbreak probability obtained by introducing these estimates in risk models were similar to those based on females/HLC (R0 > 1 in 86% and 40% of sampling dates for Chikungunya and Zika, respectively; R0 < 1 along the entire season for Dengue). Moreover, the model predicted that in this case-study scenario an R0 > 1 for Chikungunya is also to be expected when few/no eggs/day are collected by ovitraps. Discussion. This work provides the first evidence of the possibility to predict mean number of adult biting Ae. albopictus females based on mean number of eggs and to compute the threshold of eggs/ovitrap associated to epidemiological risk of arbovirus transmission in the study area. Overall, however, the large confidence intervals in the model predictions represent a caveat regarding the reliability of monitoring schemes based exclusively on ovitrap collections to estimate numbers of biting females and plan control interventions

New adhesive traps to monitor urban mosquitoes with a case study to assess the efficacy of insecticide control strategies in temperate areas

Background: Urban mosquitoes in temperate regions may represent a high nuisance and are associated with the risk of arbovirus transmission. Common practices to reduce this burden, at least in Italian highly infested urban areas, imply calendar-based larvicide treatments of street catch basins – which represent the main non-removable urban breeding site and/or insecticide ground spraying. The planning of these interventions, as well as the evaluation of their effectiveness, rarely benefit of adequate monitoring of the mosquito abundance and dynamics. We propose the use of adhesive traps to monitor Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens adults and to evaluate the efficacy of insecticide-based control strategies. Methods: We designed two novel types of adhesive traps to collect adult mosquitoes visiting and/or emerging from catch basins. The Mosquito Emerging Trap (MET) was exploited to assess the efficacy of larvicide treatments. The Catch Basin Trap (CBT) was exploited together with the Sticky Trap (ST, commonly used to collect ovipositing/resting females) to monitor adults abundance in the campus of the University of Rome “Sapienza” - where catch basins were treated with Insect Growth Regulators (IGR) bi-monthly and Low-Volume insecticide spraying were carried out before sunset - and in a nearby control area. Results: Results obtained by MET showed that, although all monitored diflubenzuron-treated catch basins were repeatedly visited by Ae. albopictus and Cx. pipiens, adult emergence was inhibited in most basins. Results obtained by ST and CBT showed a significant lower adult abundance in the treated area than in the untreated one after the second adulticide spraying, which was carried out during the major phase of Ae. albopictus population expansion in Rome. Spatial heterogeneities in the effect of the treatments were also revealed. Conclusions: The results support the potential of the three adhesive traps tested in passively monitoring urban mosquito adult abundance and seasonal dynamics and in assessing the efficacy of control measures. ST showed higher specificity for Ae. albopictus and CBT for Cx. pipiens. The results also provide a preliminary indication on the effectiveness of common mosquito control strategies carried out against urban mosquito in European urban areas

Mapping of Aedes albopictus abundance at a local scale in Italy

Given the growing risk of arbovirus outbreaks in Europe, there is a clear need to better describe the distribution of invasive mosquito species such as Aedes albopictus. Current challenges consist in simulating Ae. albopictus abundance, rather than its presence, and mapping its simulated abundance at a local scale to better assess the transmission risk of mosquito-borne pathogens and optimize mosquito control strategy. During 2014–2015, we sampled adult mosquitoes using 72 BG-Sentinel traps per year in the provinces of Belluno and Trento, Italy. We found that the sum of Ae. albopictus females collected during eight trap nights from June to September was positively related to the mean temperature of the warmest quarter and the percentage of artificial areas in a 250 m buffer around the sampling locations. Maps of Ae. albopictus abundance simulated from the most parsimonious model in the study area showed the largest populations in highly artificial areas with the highest summer temperatures, but with a high uncertainty due to the variability of the trapping collections. Vector abundance maps at a local scale should be promoted to support stakeholders and policy-makers in optimizing vector surveillance and control

Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy. From coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017

A large chikungunya outbreak is ongoing in Italy, with a main cluster in the Anzio coastal municipality. With preliminary epidemiological data, and a transmission model using mosquito abundance and biting rates, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0 at 2.07 (95% credible interval: 1.47–2.59) and the first case importation between 21 May and 18 June 2017. Outbreak risk was higher in coastal/rural sites than urban ones. Novel transmission foci could occur up to mid-November

Influence of temperature on the life-cycle dynamics of Aedes albopictus population established at temperate latitudes: a laboratory experiment

6openInternationalThe mosquito species Aedes albopictus has successfully colonized many areas at temperate latitudes, representing a major public health concern. As mosquito bionomics is critically affected by temperature, we experimentally investigated the influence of different constant rearing temperatures (10, 15, 25, and 30 °C) on the survival rates, fecundity, and developmental times of different life stages of Ae. albopictus using a laboratory colony established from specimens collected in northern Italy. We compared our results with previously published data obtained with subtropical populations. We found that temperate Ae. albopictus immature stages are better adapted to colder temperatures: temperate larvae were able to develop even at 10 °C and at 15 °C, larval survivorship was comparable to the one observed at warmer conditions. Nonetheless, at these lower temperatures, we did not observe any blood-feeding activity. Adult longevity and fecundity were substantially greater at 25 °C with respect to the other tested temperatures. Our findings highlight the ability of Ae. albopictus to quickly adapt to colder environments and provide new important insights on the bionomics of this species at temperate latitudesopenMarini, G.; Manica, M.; Arnoldi, D.; Inama, E.; Rosa', R.; Rizzoli, A.Marini, G.; Manica, M.; Arnoldi, D.; Inama, E.; Rosa', R.; Rizzoli, A

Lyme borreliosis in Europe.

Despite improvements in prevention, diagnosis and treatment, Lyme borreliosis (LB) is still the most common arthropod-borne disease in temperate regions of the northern hemisphere, with risk of infection associated with occupation (e.g. forestry work) and certain outdoor recreational activities (e.g. mushroom collecting). In Europe, LB is caused by infection with one or more pathogenic European genospecies of the spirochaete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, mainly transmitted by the tick Ixodes ricinus. Recent surveys show that the overall prevalence of LB may be stabilising, but its geographical distribution is increasing. In addition, much remains to be discovered about the factors affecting genospecific prevalence, transmission and virulence, although avoidance of tick bite still appears to be the most efficient preventive measure. Uniform, European-wide surveillance programmes (particularly on a local scale) and standardisation of diagnostic tests and treatments are still urgently needed, especially in the light of climate change scenarios and land-use and socio-economic changes. Improved epidemiological knowledge will also aid development of more accurate risk prediction models for LB. Studies on the effects of biodiversity loss and ecosystem changes on LB emergence may identify new paradigms for the prevention and control of LB and other tick-borne diseases

Enhancement of Aedes albopictus collections by ovitrap and sticky adult trap

Abstract Background: In the last decades, Aedes albopictus has become an increasing public health threat in tropical as well as in more recently invaded temperate areas due to its capacity to transmit several human arboviruses, among which Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika. Enhancing the efficiency of currently used collection approaches, such as ovitraps and sticky traps, is desirable for optimal monitoring of the species abundance, for assessment of the risk of arbovirus transmission and for the optimisation of control activities. Findings: Two sets of 4 × 4 Latin-square experiments were carried out in Tirana (Albania) to test whether modifications in ovitrap shape and size and in oviposition substrate would increase collections of Ae. albopictus eggs and whether hay-infusion would increase adult catches by sticky trap. Generalized Linear Mixed Models with negative binomial error distribution were carried out to analyse the data. Cylindrical ovitraps lined with germination paper yielded significantly higher egg catches than those exploiting either the (commonly used) wooden paddles or floating polystyrene blocks as oviposition substrates. No difference was observed between cylindrical and conical shaped ovitraps. Ovitraps and sticky traps baited with hay infusion yielded significantly higher egg and adult catches than un-baited ones. A significant relationship between ovitrap and sticky trap catches was observed both in the absence and in the presence of attractants, with ovitrap catches increasing more than sticky trap catches at increasing adult female densities. Conclusions: This study provides grounds for optimisation of ovitraps and sticky traps as monitoring tools for Ae. albopictus by (i) supporting use of germination paper as most appropriate oviposition substrate; (ii) suggesting the possible use of stackable conical ovitraps for large scale monitoring; (iii) confirming the use of hay-infusion to increase egg catches in ovitraps, and showing that hay-infusion also significant increases adult catches by sticky traps

The importance of aggregation in the dynamics of host-parasite interaction in wildlife : a mathematical approach

This study examines, from a modelling point of view, the dynamics of infectious diseases in wildlife caused by macroparasites and by tick-borne infections. The overall aim was to investigate the important role played by parasite aggregation in the dynamics of both systems. For macroparasites we first developed some deterministic models that incorporate explicit mechanisms for generating aggregation in parasite distribution, specifically multiple infections and host heterogeneity. We explored the role of aggregation in host regulation and in determining a threshold value for parasite establishment. A large aggregation makes it more difficult for parasites both to regulate hosts, and to get established in a population at carrying capacity. Furthermore, the stabilization yielded by aggregation strongly depends on the mechanism that produces the aggregation. We then introduced some uncertainties into the host-macroparasite system, presenting an individual-based stochastic model that incorporated the same assumptions as the deterministic model. Stochastic simulations, using parameter values based on some real case studies, preserved many features of the deterministic model, like the average value of the variables and the approximate length of the cycles. An important difference is that, even when deterministic models yield damped oscillations, stochastic simulations yield apparently sustained oscillations. The amplitude of such oscillations may be so large as to threaten the parasites’ persistence. With respect to tick-borne diseases we presented a general model framework that incorporated both viraemic and non-viraemic routes of infections. We compute the threshold for disease persistence and study its dependence on the parameters and on host densities. The effects of tick aggregation and correlation between different tick stages on the host have both an important effect on infection persistence, if non-viraemic transmission occurred. In the case of Lyme Disease and Tick-borne Encephalitis (TBE) in Trentino (northern Italy) we showed some numerical results, using parameter estimates based on a detailed field study, and explored the effects of uncertainty on the endemic equilibrium of both diseases assuming only viraemic transmission for Lyme Disease while for TBE we permitted only non-viraemic transmission through co-feeding ticks. In conclusion we have examined the patterns and changes of aggregation in a number of contrasting systems and believe that these studies highlight both the importance of considering heterogeneities in modelling host-parasite interactions and, more specifically, modelling the biological mechanisms that produce aggregation in parasite distributions.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceProvincia Autonoma di Trento under Grant n. 1060 ECODISGBUnited Kingdo