Bayesian Conditioning, the Reflection Principle, and Quantum Decoherence

The probabilities a Bayesian agent assigns to a set of events typically change with time, for instance when the agent updates them in the light of new data. In this paper we address the question of how an agent's probabilities at different times are constrained by Dutch-book coherence. We review and attempt to clarify the argument that, although an agent is not forced by coherence to use the usual Bayesian conditioning rule to update his probabilities, coherence does require the agent's probabilities to satisfy van Fraassen's [1984] reflection principle (which entails a related constraint pointed out by Goldstein [1983]). We then exhibit the specialized assumption needed to recover Bayesian conditioning from an analogous reflection-style consideration. Bringing the argument to the context of quantum measurement theory, we show that "quantum decoherence" can be understood in purely personalist terms---quantum decoherence (as supposed in a von Neumann chain) is not a physical process at all, but an application of the reflection principle. From this point of view, the decoherence theory of Zeh, Zurek, and others as a story of quantum measurement has the plot turned exactly backward.Comment: 14 pages, written in memory of Itamar Pitowsk

A Comprehensive Analysis of Electric Dipole Moment Constraints on CP-violating Phases in the MSSM

We analyze the constraints placed on individual, flavor diagonal CP-violating phases in the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM) by current experimental bounds on the electric dipole moments (EDMs) of the neutron, Thallium, and Mercury atoms. We identify the four CP-violating phases that are individually highly constrained by current EDM bounds, and we explore how these phases and correlations among them are constrained by current EDM limits. We also analyze the prospective implications of the next generation of EDM experiments. We point out that all other CP-violating phases in the MSSM are not nearly as tightly constrained by limits on the size of EDMs. We emphasize that a rich set of phenomenological consequences is potentially associated with these generically large EDM-allowed phases, ranging from B physics, electroweak baryogenesis, and signals of CP-violation at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and at future linear colliders. Our numerical study takes into account the complete set of contributions from one- and two-loop EDMs of the electron and quarks, one- and two-loop Chromo-EDMs of quarks, the Weinberg 3-gluon operator, and dominant 4-fermion CP-odd operator contributions, including contributions which are both included and not included yet in the CPsuperH2.0 package. We also introduce an open-source numerical package, 2LEDM, which provides the complete set of two-loop electroweak diagrams contributing to the electric dipole moments of leptons and quarks.Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures; v2: references added, minor change

MSSM Baryogenesis and Electric Dipole Moments: An Update on the Phenomenology

We explore the implications of electroweak baryogenesis for future searches for permanent electric dipole moments in the context of the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM). From a cosmological standpoint, we point out that regions of parameter space that over-produce relic lightest supersymmetric particles can be salvaged only by assuming a dilution of the particle relic density that makes it compatible with the dark matter density: this dilution must occur after dark matter freeze-out, which ordinarily takes place after electroweak baryogenesis, implying the same degree of dilution for the generated baryon number density as well. We expand on previous studies on the viable MSSM regions for baryogenesis, exploring for the first time an orthogonal slice of the relevant parameter space, namely the (tan\beta, m_A) plane, and the case of non-universal relative gaugino-higgsino CP violating phases. The main result of our study is that in all cases lower limits on the size of the electric dipole moments exist, and are typically on the same order, or above, the expected sensitivity of the next generation of experimental searches, implying that MSSM electroweak baryogenesis will be soon conclusively tested.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures, matches version published in JHE

Stochastic Modeling for the Expression of a Gene Regulated by Competing Transcription Factors

It is widely accepted that gene expression regulation is a stochastic event. The common approach for its computer simulation requires detailed information on the interactions of individual molecules, which is often not available for the analyses of biological experiments. As an alternative approach, we employed a more intuitive model to simulate the experimental result, the Markov-chain model, in which a gene is regulated by activators and repressors, which bind the same site in a mutually exclusive manner. Our stochastic simulation in the presence of both activators and repressors predicted a Hill-coefficient of the dose-response curve closer to the experimentally observed value than the calculated value based on the simple additive effects of activators alone and repressors alone. The simulation also reproduced the heterogeneity of gene expression levels among individual cells observed by Fluorescence Activated Cell Sorting analysis. Therefore, our approach may help to apply stochastic simulations to broader experimental data

Very Cold Gas and Dark Matter

We have recently proposed a new candidate for baryonic dark matter: very cold molecular gas, in near-isothermal equilibrium with the cosmic background radiation at 2.73 K. The cold gas, of quasi-primordial abundances, is condensed in a fractal structure, resembling the hierarchical structure of the detected interstellar medium. We present some perspectives of detecting this very cold gas, either directly or indirectly. The H$_2$ molecule has an "ultrafine" structure, due to the interaction between the rotation-induced magnetic moment and the nuclear spins. But the lines fall in the km domain, and are very weak. The best opportunity might be the UV absorption of H$_2$ in front of quasars. The unexpected cold dust component, revealed by the COBE/FIRAS submillimetric results, could also be due to this very cold H$_2$ gas, through collision-induced radiation, or solid H$_2$ grains or snowflakes. The $\gamma$-ray distribution, much more radially extended than the supernovae at the origin of cosmic rays acceleration, also points towards and extended gas distribution.Comment: 16 pages, Latex pages, crckapb macro, 3 postscript figures, uuencoded compressed tar file. To be published in the proceeedings of the "Dust-Morphology" conference, Johannesburg, 22-26 January, 1996, D. Block (ed.), (Kluwer Dordrecht

Reciprocity as a foundation of financial economics

This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis of results from the Ultimatum Game and is analysed within a framework of Pragmatic philosophy. The analysis leads to the explanatory hypothesis that markets are centres of communicative action with reciprocity as a rule of discourse. The purpose of the paper is to reorientate financial economics to emphasise the objectives of cooperation and social cohesion and to this end, we offer specific policy advice

The Development of Mouse APECED Models Provides New Insight into the Role of AIRE in Immune Regulation

Autoimmune polyendocrinopathy candidiasis ectodermal dystrophy is a rare recessive autoimmune disorder caused by a defect in a single gene called AIRE (autoimmune regulator). Characteristics of this disease include a variable combination of autoimmune endocrine tissue destruction, mucocutaneous candidiasis and ectodermal dystrophies. The development of Aire-knockout mice has provided an invaluable model for the study of this disease. The aim of this review is to briefly highlight the strides made in APECED research using these transgenic murine models, with a focus on known roles of Aire in autoimmunity. The findings thus far are compelling and prompt additional areas of study which are discussed

A systematic review of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of peer education and peer support in prisons.

BACKGROUND: Prisoners experience significantly worse health than the general population. This review examines the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of peer interventions in prison settings. METHODS: A mixed methods systematic review of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies, including qualitative and quantitative synthesis was conducted. In addition to grey literature identified and searches of websites, nineteen electronic databases were searched from 1985 to 2012. Study selection criteria were: Population: Prisoners resident in adult prisons and children resident in Young Offender Institutions (YOIs). INTERVENTION: Peer-based interventions Comparators: Review questions 3 and 4 compared peer and professionally led approaches. OUTCOMES: Prisoner health or determinants of health; organisational/ process outcomes; views of prison populations. STUDY DESIGNS: Quantitative, qualitative and mixed method evaluations. RESULTS: Fifty-seven studies were included in the effectiveness review and one study in the cost-effectiveness review; most were of poor methodological quality. Evidence suggested that peer education interventions are effective at reducing risky behaviours, and that peer support services are acceptable within the prison environment and have a positive effect on recipients, practically or emotionally. Consistent evidence from many, predominantly qualitative, studies, suggested that being a peer deliverer was associated with positive effects. There was little evidence on cost-effectiveness of peer-based interventions. CONCLUSIONS: There is consistent evidence from a large number of studies that being a peer worker is associated with positive health; peer support services are also an acceptable source of help within the prison environment and can have a positive effect on recipients. Research into cost-effectiveness is sparse. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ref: CRD42012002349

Cost-effectiveness of febrile neutropenia prevention with primary versus secondary G-CSF prophylaxis for adjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer: a systematic review

The adoption of primary (PP) versus secondary prophylaxis (SP) of febrile neutropenia (FN), with granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSF), for adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) regimens in breast cancer (BC) could be affected by its “value for money”. This systematic review examined (i) cost-effectiveness of PP versus SP, (ii) FN threshold at which PP is cost-effective including the guidelines 20 % threshold and (iii) potential impact of G-CSF efficacy assumptions on outcomes. The systematic review identified all cost-effectiveness/cost-utility analyses (CEA/CUA) involving PP versus SP G-CSF for AC in BC that met predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria. Five relevant CEA/CUA were identified. These CEA/CUA examined different AC regimens (TAC = 2; FEC-D = 1; TC = 2) and G-CSF formulations (filgrastim “F” = 4; pegfilgrastim “P” = 4) with varying baseline FN—risk (range 22–32 %), mortality (range 1.4–6.0 %) and utility (range 0.33–0.47). The potential G-CSF benefit, including FN risk reduction with P versus F, varied among models. Overall, relative to SP, PP was not associated with good value for money, as per commonly utilized CE thresholds, at the baseline FN rates examined, including the consensus 20 % FN threshold, in most of these studies. The value for money associated with PP versus SP was primarily dependent on G-CSF benefit assumptions including reduced FN mortality and improved BC survival. PP G-CSF for FN prevention in BC patients undergoing AC may not be a cost-effective strategy at the guidelines 20 % FN threshold

Impact of age and comorbidities on health-related quality of life for patients with prostate cancer: evaluation before a curative treatment

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Interpretation of comparative health-related quality of life (HRQOL) studies following different prostate cancer treatments is often difficult due to differing patient ages. Furthermore, age-related changes can hardly be discriminated from therapy-related changes. The evaluation of age-and comorbidity-related changes was in focus of this study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HRQOL of 528 prostate cancer patients was analysed using a validated questionnaire (Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite) before a curative treatment. Patients were divided into age groups ≤65, 6670, 7175 and >75 years. The impact of specific comorbidities and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were evaluated. The questionnaire comprises 50 items concerning the urinary, bowel, sexual and hormonal domains for function and bother. For assessment of sexual and hormonal domains, only patients without prior hormonal treatment were included (n = 336).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Urinary incontinence was observed increasingly with higher age (mean function scores of 92/88/85/87 for patients ≤65, 6670, 7175 and >75 years) complete urinary control in 78%/72%/64%/58% (p < 0.01). Sexual function scores decreased particularly (48/43/35/30), with erections sufficient for intercourse in 68%/50%/36%/32% (p < 0.01) a decrease of more than a third comparing patients ≤65 vs. 6670 (36%) and 6670 vs. 7175 years (39%). The percentage of patients with comorbidities was lowest in the youngest group (48% vs. 66%/68%/63% for ages 6670/7175/>75 years; p < 0.05). A multivariate analysis revealed an independent influence of both age and comorbidities on urinary incontinence, specifically diabetes on urinary bother, and both age and diabetes on sexual function/bother. Rectal domain scores were not significantly influenced by age or comorbidities. A CCI>5 particularly predisposed for lower urinary and sexual HRQOL scores.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Urinary continence and sexual function are the crucial HRQOL domains with age-related and independently comorbidity-related decreasing scores. The results need to be considered for the interpretation of comparative studies or longitudinal changes after a curative treatment.</p