Trade in services : How does it work ?

While services represent nearly 70 % of value added in all OECD countries, only a fifth of trade in goods and services is due to cross-border supply of services. Then internationalisation of services occurs by commercial presence of firms in host countries, its impact on white collar employment is limited and only unskilled workers incur falls in wage. As for temporary movement of people, Mode 4 is very difficult to measure either by trade or migration statistics. In the paper we show that the divergence between the preponderance of services in national activities and its weakness in international transactions is due to the importance of non tradeable industries, for which the degree is week and contrasts with activities implied in international competition.Trade in services ; Comparative Advantage ; Temporary movement of persons

The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: a Panel SmoothTransition Regression Approach

This paper proposes an original framework to determine the relative influence of fivefactors on the Feldstein and Horioka result of OECD countries with a strong saving-investment association. Based on panel threshold regression models, we establishcountry-specific and time-specific saving retention coefficients for 24 OECD coun-tries over the period 1960-2000. These coefficients are assumed to change smoothly,as a function of five threshold variables, considered as the most important in theliterature devoted to the Feldstein and Horioka puzzle. The results show that; de-gree of openness, country size and current account to GDP ratios have the greatestinfluence on the investment-saving relationship.Feldstein Horioka puzzle, Panel Smooth Threshold Regression models,saving-investment association, capital mobility .

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men

Rapport sur la balance des paiments : adaptation de la base CHELEM-BAL à la nouvelle nomenclature du FMI (manuel de 1993)

Document de travail, Rapport de recherche interne pour le CEPI

Gains à l'échange de services pour les pays africains : mythe ou réalité ?

D’importants gains d’augmentation des exportations et de croissance sont attendus de la libéralisation des échanges de services dans les pays africains. La taille et la croissance du secteur tertiaire et l’ampleur des barrières existantes semblent justifier cette attente. Nous analysons les modèles d’équilibre général calculable développés pour mesurer les effets de l’ouverture des marchés de services en Afrique. Nous montrons que les résultats de ces modèles doivent être considérés avec prudence. Plutôt que de préconiser l’harmonisation des réglementations, il peut s’avérer préférable de rechercher des pistes pour accroître la productivité et réduire les coûts dans les services. La réalisation de réformes domestiques s’avère un préalable nécessaire pour éviter que les rentes des monopoles domestiques ne soient transférées à des oligopoles étrangers

Les conséquences économiques de la libéralisation des échanges de services

Contribution associée au XLIIème Congrès annuel de l'AFSE, 23 et 24 septembre 1993, session "GATT et protectionnisme

Dans la bagarre internationale, la France regagne du terrain

Interview pour Courrier cadres, n° 151

Migration and the EMP: A Political Economy Perspective

Frei Universitä

Les déterminants des échanges de services : l'apport des nouvelles théories du commerce international

Contribution associée au XLIIIème Congrès annuel de l'AFSE, 28 et 29 septembre 1994, session "Les nouvelles analyses du commerce international

La méthodologie de la base CHELEM du CEPII : un point sur la base balance des paiements

Séminaire interne du CEPI