Birth weight and the risk of atrial fibrillation in whites and African Americans: The atherosclerosis risk in communities (ARIC) study

Background: Low birth weight (LBW) has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). A previous study, however, found higher risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in individuals with higher birth weight (BW). To further understand this apparent paradox, we examined the relationship between AF and BW in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort. Methods: The analysis included 10,132 individuals free of AF at baseline (1996-1998), who provided BW information, were not born premature, and were not a twin. Self-reported BW was categorized as low (<2.5 kg), medium (2.5-4 kg), and high (>4.0 kg). AF incidence was ascertained from hospital discharge codes and death certificates. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to determine the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of AF across BW groups. Results: During an average follow-up of 10.3 years, we identified 882 incident AF cases. LBW was associated with higher risk of AF. Compared to individuals in the medium BW category, the HR (95% CI) of AF was 1.33 (0.99, 1.78) for LBW and 1.00 (0.81, 1.24) for high BW after adjusting for sociodemographic variables (p for trend = 0.29). Additional adjustment for CVD risk factors did not attenuate the associations (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.06, 1.90 for LBW and HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.69-1.07 for high BW, compared to medium BW, p for trend = 0.01).Conclusion: LBW was associated with a higher risk of AF. This association was independent of known predictors of AF and is consistent with that observed for other cardiovascular diseases. © 2014 Lawani et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Investigating the Evidence of the Real-Life Impact of Acute Hyperglycaemia

Poorly controlled diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with the development of long-term micro- and macro-vascular complications. The predominant focus of anti-diabetic therapy has been on lowering glycosylated haemoglobin levels, with a strong emphasis on fasting plasma glucose (particularly in Type 2 DM). There is considerable evidence indicating that post-meal hyperglycaemic levels are independently associated with higher risks of macro-vascular disease. Although some have identified mechanisms which may account for these observations, interventions which have specifically targeted postprandial glucose rises showed little or no effect in reducing cardiovascular risk. Clinical experience and some recent studies suggest acute hyperglycaemia affects cognition and other indicators of performance, equivalent to impairment seen during hypoglycaemia. In this brief report, we evaluated the published studies and argue that acute hyperglycaemia is worth investigating in relation to the real-life implications. In summary, evidence exists suggesting that acute hyperglycaemia may lead to impaired cognitive performance and productivity, but the relationship between these effects and daily activities remains poorly understood. Further research is required to enhance our understanding of acute hyperglycaemia in daily life. A better appreciation of clinically relevant effects of acute hyperglycaemia will allow us to determine whether it needs to be addressed by specific treatment

Light smoking at base-line predicts a higher mortality risk to women than to men; evidence from a cohort with long follow-up

BACKGROUND: There is conflicting evidence as to whether smoking is more harmful to women than to men. The UK Cotton Workers’ Cohort was recruited in the 1960s and contained a high proportion of men and women smokers who were well matched in terms of age, job and length of time in job. The cohort has been followed up for 42 years. METHODS: Mortality in the cohort was analysed using an individual relative survival method and Cox regression. Whether smoking, ascertained at baseline in the 1960s, was more hazardous to women than to men was examined by estimating the relative risk ratio women to men, smokers to never smoked, for light (1–14), medium (15–24), heavy (25+ cigarettes per day) and former smoking. RESULTS: For all-cause mortality relative risk ratios were 1.35 for light smoking at baseline (95% CI 1.07-1.70), 1.15 for medium smoking (95% CI 0.89-1.49) and 1.00 for heavy smoking (95% CI 0.63-1.61). Relative risk ratios for light smoking at baseline for circulatory system disease was 1.42 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.98) and for respiratory disease was 1.89 (95% CI 0.99 to 3.63). Heights of participants provided no explanation for the gender difference. CONCLUSIONS: Light smoking at baseline was shown to be significantly more hazardous to women than to men but the effect decreased as consumption increased indicating a dose response relationship. Heavy smoking was equally hazardous to both genders. This result may help explain the conflicting evidence seen elsewhere. However gender differences in smoking cessation may provide an alternative explanation

Time Trends in Deaths Before Age 50 Years in People with Type 1 Diabetes:a nationwide analysis from Scotland 2004–2017

Acknowledgements We thank the SDRN Epidemiology Group: J. Chalmers (Diabetes Centre, Victoria Hospital, Kirkcaldy, UK), C. Fischbacher (Information Services Division, NHS National Services Scotland, Edinburgh, UK), B. Kennon (Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow, UK), G. Leese (Ninewells Hospital, Dundee, UK), R. Lindsay (British Heart Foundation Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK), J. McKnight (Western General Hospital, NHS, UK), J. Petrie (Institute of Cardiovascular & Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK), R. McCrimmon (Division of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK), S. Philip (Grampian Diabetes Research Unit, Diabetes Centre, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, UK), D. McAllister (Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK), E. Pearson (Population Health and Genomics, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK) and S. Wild (Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK). The SDRN Epidemiology Group resource was originally set up under Ethics ref. 11/AL/0225, PAC 33/11 now running under PBPP ref. 1617-0147. Funding This study was supported by funding from Diabetes UK (17/0005627).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Access route selection for percutaneous coronary intervention among Vietnamese patients: Implications for in-hospital costs and outcomes

Background:Little is known about rates of access site (transradial (TRI) or transfemoral (TFI)) preference for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and in-hospital costs of patients undergoing these procedures in lower-and middle-countries. Here, we report on access site use, in-hospital costs and outcomes of patients undergoing PCI in Vietnam.Methods:Information from 868 patients were included in the cohort of 1022 patients recruited into the first PCI registry in Vietnam. The total hospital costs and in-hospital outcomes of patients undergoing TRI and TFI were compared. Hospital costs were obtained from the hospital admission system, and major adverse cardiac events, major bleeding events and length of stay were identified through review of medical records.Findings:TRI was the dominant access site for interventionists (694/868 patients). The TFI group reported more lesions of the left main artery, more previous coronary artery bypass grafts and previous PCI in comparison with the TRI group (all p Interpretations:Among patients undergoing PCI, TRI was associated with lower costs and favourable clinical outcomes relative to TFI

Do Mismatches between Pre- and Post-Natal Environments Influence Adult Physiological Functioning?

Purpose: Mismatches between pre- and post-natal environments have implications for disease in adulthood. However, less is known about how this mismatch can affect physiological systems more generally, especially at younger ages. We hypothesised that mismatches between pre- and post-natal environments, as measured by the measures of birthweight and adult leg length, would be associated with poorer biomarker levels across five key physiological systems in young adults. Methods: Data were collected from 923, 36 year-old respondents from the West of Scotland Twenty-07 Study. The biomarkers were: systolic blood pressure (sBP); forced expiratory volume (FEV1); glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c); glomerular filtration rate (eGFR); and gamma- glutamyltransferase (GGT). These biomarkers were regressed against pre-natal conditions (birthweight), post-natal conditions (leg length) and the interaction between pre- and post-natal measures. Sex, childhood socioeconomic position and adult lifestyle characteristics were adjusted for as potential effect modifiers and confounders, respectively. Results: There were no associations between birthweight and leg length and sBP, FEV1, HbA1c, or GGT. Higher birthweight and longer leg length were associated with better kidney function (eGFR). However, there was no evidence for mismatches between birthweight and leg length to be associated with worse sBP, FEV1, HbA1c, eGFR or GGT levels (P>0.05). Conclusions: Our hypothesis that early signs of physiological damage would be present in young adults given mismatches in childhood environments, as measured by growth markers, was not proven. This lack of association could be because age 36 is too young to identify significant trends for future health, or the associations simply not being present. © 2014 Robertson, Benzeval

Does chocolate reduce blood pressure? A meta-analysis

BackgroundDark chocolate and flavanol-rich cocoa products have attracted interest as an alternative treatment option for hypertension, a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Previous meta-analyses concluded that cocoa-rich foods may reduce blood pressure. Recently, several additional trials have been conducted with conflicting results. Our study summarises current evidence on the effect of flavanol-rich cocoa products on blood pressure in hypertensive and normotensive individuals.MethodsWe searched Medline, Cochrane and international trial registries between 1955 and 2009 for randomised controlled trials investigating the effect of cocoa as food or drink compared with placebo on systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) for a minimum duration of 2 weeks. We conducted random effects meta-analysis of all studies fitting the inclusion criteria, as well as subgroup analysis by baseline blood pressure (hypertensive/normotensive). Meta-regression analysis explored the association between type of treatment, dosage, duration or baseline blood pressure and blood pressure outcome. Statistical significance was set at P ResultsFifteen trial arms of 13 assessed studies met the inclusion criteria. Pooled meta-analysis of all trials revealed a significant blood pressure-reducing effect of cocoa-chocolate compared with control (mean BP change +/- SE: SBP: -3.2 +/- 1.9 mmHg, P = 0.001; DBP: -2.0 +/- 1.3 mmHg, P = 0.003). However, subgroup meta-analysis was significant only for the hypertensive or prehypertensive subgroups (SBP: -5.0 +/- 3.0 mmHg; P = 0.0009; DBP: -2.7 +/- 2.2 mm Hg, P = 0.01), while BP was not significantly reduced in the normotensive subgroups (SBP: -1.6 +/- 2.3 mmHg, P = 0.17; DBP: -1.3 +/- 1.6 mmHg, P = 0.12). Nine trials used chocolate containing 50% to 70% cocoa compared with white chocolate or other cocoa-free controls, while six trials compared high- with low-flavanol cocoa products. Daily flavanol dosages ranged from 30 mg to 1000 mg in the active treatment groups, and interventions ran for 2 to 18 weeks. Meta-regression analysis found study design and type of control to be borderline significant but possibly indirect predictors for blood pressure outcome.ConclusionOur meta-analysis suggests that dark chocolate is superior to placebo in reducing systolic hypertension or diastolic prehypertension. Flavanol-rich chocolate did not significantly reduce mean blood pressure below 140 mmHg systolic or 80 mmHg diastolic.Karin Ried, Thomas Sullivan, Peter Fakler, Oliver R. Frank and Nigel P. Stock

Pregnancy-induced hypertension and infant growth at 28 and 42 days postpartum

BACKGROUND: No previous studies have examined the effect of pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH) on early infant growth. The objective was to study infant growth patterns of babies born to mothers with PIH at 28 and 42 days postpartum. METHODS: DESIGN: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of 16,936 pregnancies delivered between January 1, 1989 through December 31, 1990 in Suzhou, China. PIH was classified as gestational hypertension, preeclampsia and severe preeclampsia. Infant Growth Percentage (IGP) was calculated as the weight gain from birth to infant weight at 28 or 42 days postpartum divided by the birth weight. Univariate analysis and multivariate linear regression were performed to compare the infant weight as well as IGP at 28 and 42 days postpartum between various types of PIH and the normotensive group. RESULTS: Infant weights at 28 and 42 days postpartum were significantly lower in severe preeclampsia (e.g., 4679.9 g at 42 days) and preeclampsia (e.g., 4763.8 g at 42 days) groups than in the normotensive group (e.g., 4869.1 g at 42 days, p < 0.01). However, there were no differences in IGP between groups. After stratifying by intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) status, if babies were not intrauterine growth restricted, none of the PIH types showed a significantly lower weight at 28 and 42 days postpartum and their IGPs were similar to those of the reference group. When babies were growth restricted, all PIH groups showed significantly lower weights but higher IGP at 28 and 42 days postpartum as compared to the normotensive group. CONCLUSION: Infants born to mothers with PIH but without IUGR have normal early infant growth. IUGR secondary to PIH is associated with significant catch-up growth at 28 and 42 days postpartum