A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20% to 30% of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2{\deg}C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2{\deg}C target after a particular development threshold is reached. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2{\deg}C.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

The climate sensitivity of Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] in the southeastern European Alps

Tree ring chronologies were developed from trees growing at two sites in Slovenia which differed in their ecological and climatological characteristics. Ring width, maximum latewood density, annual height increment and latewood cellulose carbon isotope composition were developed at both sites and time-series verified against instrumental climate data over the period (AD 1960–AD 2002). Ring width sensitivity to summer temperature is site-dependent, with contrasting responses at alpine and lowland sites. Maximum density responds to September temperatures, suggesting lignification after cell division has ended for the season. Stable carbon isotopes have great potential, responding to summer temperature at oth alpine and lowland stands. Height increment appears relatively insensitive to climate, and is likely to be dominated by local stand dynamics

Dry and Humid Periods Reconstructed from Tree Rings in the Former Territory of Sogdiana (Central Asia) and Their Socio-economic Consequences over the Last Millennium

One of the richest societies along the Silk Road developed in Sogdiana, located in present-day Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. This urban civilisation reached its greatest prosperity during the golden age of the Silk Road (sixth to ninth century ce). Rapid political and economic changes, accelerated by climatic variations, were observed during last millennium in this region. The newly developed tree-ring-based reconstruction of precipitation for the pastmillennium revealed a series of dry and wet stages. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), two dry periods occurred (900–1000 and 1200–1250), interrupted by a phase of wetter conditions. Distinct dry periods occurred around 1510–1650, 1750–1850, and 1920–1970, respectively. The juniper tree-ring record of moisture changes revealed that major dry and pluvial episodes were consistent with those indicated by hydroclimatic proxy data from adjacent areas. These climate fluctuations have had longand short term consequences for human history in the territory of former Sogdiana

Reconciling carbon-cycle concepts, terminology, and methods

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2006. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecosystems 9 (2006): 1041-1050, doi:10.1007/s10021-005-0105-7.Recent patterns and projections of climatic change have focused increased scientific and public attention on patterns of carbon (C) cycling and its controls, particularly the factors that determine whether an ecosystem is a net source or sink of atmospheric CO2. Net ecosystem production (NEP), a central concept in C-cycling research, has been used to represent two different concepts by C-cycling scientists. We propose that NEP be restricted to just one of its two original definitions—the imbalance between gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), and that a new term—net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB)—be applied to the net rate of C accumulation in (or loss from; negative sign) ecosystems. NECB differs from NEP when C fluxes other than C fixation and respiration occur or when inorganic C enters or leaves in dissolved form. These fluxes include leaching loss or lateral transfer of C from the ecosystem; emission of volatile organic C, methane, and carbon monoxide; and soot and CO2 from fire. C fluxes in addition to NEP are particularly important determinants of NECB over long time scales. However, even over short time scales, they are important in ecosystems such as streams, estuaries, wetlands, and cities. Recent technological advances have led to a diversity of approaches to measuring C fluxes at different temporal and spatial scales. These approaches frequently capture different components of NEP or NECB and can therefore be compared across scales only by carefully specifying the fluxes included in the measurements. By explicitly identifying the fluxes that comprise NECB and other components of the C cycle, such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and net biome production (NBP), we provide a less ambiguous framework for understanding and communicating recent changes in the global C cycle. Key words: Net ecosystem production, net ecosystem carbon balance, gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, autotrophic respiration, heterotrophic respiration, net ecosystem exchange, net biome production, net primary production

Distinct Peripheral Blood RNA Responses to Salmonella in Pigs Differing in Salmonella Shedding Levels: Intersection of IFNG, TLR and miRNA Pathways

Transcriptomic analysis of the response to bacterial pathogens has been reported for several species, yet few studies have investigated the transcriptional differences in whole blood in subjects that differ in their disease response phenotypes. Salmonella species infect many vertebrate species, and pigs colonized with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (ST) are usually asymptomatic, making detection of these Salmonella-carrier pigs difficult. The variable fecal shedding of Salmonella is an important cause of foodborne illness and zoonotic disease. To investigate gene pathways and biomarkers associated with the variance in Salmonella shedding following experimental inoculation, we initiated the first analysis of the whole blood transcriptional response induced by Salmonella. A population of pigs (n = 40) was inoculated with ST and peripheral blood and fecal Salmonella counts were collected between 2 and 20 days post-inoculation (dpi). Two groups of pigs with either low shedding (LS) or persistent shedding (PS) phenotypes were identified. Global transcriptional changes in response to ST inoculation were identified by Affymetrix Genechip® analysis of peripheral blood RNA at day 0 and 2 dpi. ST inoculation triggered substantial gene expression changes in the pigs and there was differential expression of many genes between LS and PS pigs. Analysis of the differential profiles of gene expression within and between PS and LS phenotypic classes identified distinct regulatory pathways mediated by IFN-γ, TNF, NF-κB, or one of several miRNAs. We confirmed the activation of two regulatory factors, SPI1 and CEBPB, and demonstrated that expression of miR-155 was decreased specifically in the PS animals. These data provide insight into specific pathways associated with extremes in Salmonella fecal shedding that can be targeted for further exploration on why some animals develop a carrier state. This knowledge can also be used to develop rational manipulations of genetics, pharmaceuticals, nutrition or husbandry methods to decrease Salmonella colonization, shedding and spread