Breakthrough Seizures - Further analysis of the Standard versus New Antiepileptic Drugs (SANAD) study

Objectives To develop prognostic models for risk of a breakthrough seizure, risk of seizure recurrence after a breakthrough seizure, and likelihood of achieving 12-month remission following a breakthrough seizure. A breakthrough seizure is one that occurs following at least 12 months remission whilst on treatment. Methods We analysed data from the SANAD study. This long-term randomised trial compared treatments for participants with newly diagnosed epilepsy. Multivariable Cox models investigated how clinical factors affect the probability of each outcome. Best fitting multivariable models were produced with variable reduction by Akaike’s Information Criterion. Risks associated with combinations of risk factors were calculated from each multivariable model. Results Significant factors in the multivariable model for risk of a breakthrough seizure following 12-month remission were number of tonic-clonic seizures by achievement of 12-month remission, time taken to achieve 12-month remission, and neurological insult. Significant factors in the model for risk of seizure recurrence following a breakthrough seizure were total number of drugs attempted to achieve 12-month remission, time to achieve 12-month remission prior to breakthrough seizure, and breakthrough seizure treatment decision. Significant factors in the model for likelihood of achieving 12-month remission after a breakthrough seizure were gender, age at breakthrough seizure, time to achieve 12-month remission prior to breakthrough, and breakthrough seizure treatment decision. Conclusions This is the first analysis to consider risk of a breakthrough seizure and subsequent outcomes. The described models can be used to identify people most likely to have a breakthrough seizure, a seizure recurrence following a breakthrough seizure, and to achieve 12-month remission following a breakthrough seizure. The results suggest that focussing on achieving 12-month remission swiftly represents the best therapeutic aim to reduce the risk of a breakthrough seizure and subsequent negative outcomes. This will aid individual patient risk stratification and the design of future epilepsy trials

Histological evidence for a supraspinous ligament in sauropod dinosaurs

Supraspinous ossified rods have been reported in the sacra of some derived sauropod dinosaurs. Although different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the origin ofthis structure, histological evidence has never been provided to support or reject any of them. In order to establish its origin, we analyse and characterize the microstructure of thesupraspinous rod of two sauropod dinosaurs from the Upper Cretaceous of Argentina. The supraspinous ossified rod is almost entirely formed by dense Haversian bone. Remains ofprimary bone consist entirely of an avascular tissue composed of two types of fibre-like structures, which are coarse and longitudinally (parallel to the main axis of the element) oriented. These structures are differentiated on the basis of their optical properties under polarized light. Very thin fibrous strands are also observed in some regions. These small fibres are all oriented parallel to one another but perpendicular to the element main axis. Histological features of the primary bone tissue indicate that the sacral supraspinous rod corresponds to an ossified supraspinous ligament. The formation of this structure appears to have been a non-pathological metaplastic ossification, possibly induced by the continuous tensile forces applied to the element.Fil: Cerda, Ignacio Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigación en Paleobiología y Geología; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro; ArgentinaFil: Casal, Gabriel. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia; ArgentinaFil: Martínez, Rubén Darío. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia ; ArgentinaFil: Ibiricu, Lucio Manuel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagónico; Argentin

Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events

We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each hidden state, we use hierarchical mixtures of distributions in the exponential family. In our approach the observation distribution of the states is a finite mixture distribution of a small set of (simpler) distributions shared across all states. Using tied-mixture observation distributions offers several advantages. The mixtures act as a regularization for typically very sparse problems, and they reduce the computational effort for the learning algorithm since there are fewer distributions to be found. Using shared mixtures enables sharing of statistical strength between the Markov states and thus transfer learning. We determine for individual assets the trade-off between the risk of failure and extended operating hours by combining a MMMM with a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) to dynamically optimize the policy for when and how to maintain the asset.Comment: Will be published in the proceedings of ICCS 2020; @Booklet{EasyChair:3183, author = {Paul Hofmann and Zaid Tashman}, title = {Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events}, howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 3183}, year = {EasyChair, 2020}

Effect of diindolylmethane supplementation on low-grade cervical cytological abnormalities: double-blind, randomised, controlled trial

This work was supported by a Cancer Research UK project grant (C8162/A4609 project costs) and a programme grant (C8162/A10406)

A hysteretic multiscale formulation for nonlinear dynamic analysis of composite materials

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.A new multiscale finite element formulation is presented for nonlinear dynamic analysis of heterogeneous structures. The proposed multiscale approach utilizes the hysteretic finite element method to model the microstructure. Using the proposed computational scheme, the micro-basis functions, that are used to map the microdisplacement components to the coarse mesh, are only evaluated once and remain constant throughout the analysis procedure. This is accomplished by treating inelasticity at the micro-elemental level through properly defined hysteretic evolution equations. Two types of imposed boundary conditions are considered for the derivation of the multiscale basis functions, namely the linear and periodic boundary conditions. The validity of the proposed formulation as well as its computational efficiency are verified through illustrative numerical experiments

Family planning, antenatal and delivery care: cross-sectional survey evidence on levels of coverage and inequalities by public and private sector in 57 low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the role of the private sector in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We used Demographic and Health Surveys for 57 countries (2000-2013) to evaluate the private sector's share in providing three reproductive and maternal/newborn health services (family planning, antenatal and delivery care), in total and by socio-economic position. METHODS: We used data from 865 547 women aged 15-49, representing a total of 3 billion people. We defined 'met and unmet need for services' and 'use of appropriate service types' clearly and developed explicit classifications of source and sector of provision. RESULTS: Across the four regions (sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East/Europe, Asia and Latin America), unmet need ranged from 28% to 61% for family planning, 8% to 22% for ANC and 21% to 51% for delivery care. The private-sector share among users of family planning services was 37-39% across regions (overall mean: 37%; median across countries: 41%). The private-sector market share among users of ANC was 13-61% across regions (overall mean: 44%; median across countries: 15%). The private-sector share among appropriate deliveries was 9-56% across regions (overall mean: 40%; median across countries: 14%). For all three healthcare services, women in the richest wealth quintile used private services more than the poorest. Wealth gaps in met need for services were smallest for family planning and largest for delivery care. CONCLUSIONS: The private sector serves substantial numbers of women in LMICs, particularly the richest. To achieve universal health coverage, including adequate quality care, it is imperative to understand this sector, starting with improved data collection on healthcare provision

Prenatal hypoxia induces increased cardiac contractility on a background of decreased capillary density.

Background: Chronic hypoxia in utero (CHU) is one of the most common insults to fetal development and may be associated with poor cardiac recovery from ischaemia-reperfusion injury,yet the effects on normal cardiac mechanical performance are poorly understood. Methods: Pregnant female wistar rats were exposed to hypoxia (12% oxygen, balance nitrogen)for days 10–20 of pregnancy. Pups were born into normal room air and weaned normally. At 10 weeks of age, hearts were excised under anaesthesia and underwent retrograde 'Langendorff' perfusion. Mechanical performance was measured at constant filling pressure (100 cm H2O) with intraventricular balloon. Left ventricular free wall was dissected away and capillary density estimated following alkaline phosphatase staining. Expression of SERCA2a and Nitric Oxide Synthases (NOS) proteins were estimated by immunoblotting. Results: CHU significantly increased body mass (P < 0.001) compared with age-matched control rats but was without effect on relative cardiac mass. For incremental increases in left ventricular balloon volume, diastolic pressure was preserved. However, systolic pressure was significantly greater following CHU for balloon volume = 50 μl (P < 0.01) and up to 200 μl (P < 0.05). For higher balloon volumes systolic pressure was not significantly different from control. Developed pressures were correspondingly increased relative to controls for balloon volumes up to 250 μl (P < 0.05).Left ventricular free wall capillary density was significantly decreased in both epicardium (18%; P <0.05) and endocardium (11%; P < 0.05) despite preserved coronary flow. Western blot analysis revealed no change to the expression of SERCA2a or nNOS but immuno-detectable eNOS protein was significantly decreased (P < 0.001) in cardiac tissue following chronic hypoxia in utero. Conclusion: These data offer potential mechanisms for poor recovery following ischaemia, including decreased coronary flow reserve and impaired angiogenesis with subsequent detrimental effects of post-natal cardiac performance

The distribution of pond snail communities across a landscape: separating out the influence of spatial position from local habitat quality for ponds in south-east Northumberland, UK

Ponds support a rich biodiversity because the heterogeneity of individual ponds creates, at the landscape scale, a diversity of habitats for wildlife. The distribution of pond animals and plants will be influenced by both the local conditions within a pond and the spatial distribution of ponds across the landscape. Separating out the local from the spatial is difficult because the two are often linked. Pond snails are likely to be affected by both local conditions, e.g. water hardness, and spatial patterns, e.g. distance between ponds, but studies of snail communities struggle distinguishing between the two. In this study, communities of snails were recorded from 52 ponds in a biogeographically coherent landscape in north-east England. The distribution of snail communities was compared to local environments characterised by the macrophyte communities within each pond and to the spatial pattern of ponds throughout the landscape. Mantel tests were used to partial out the local versus the landscape respective influences. Snail communities became more similar in ponds that were closer together and in ponds with similar macrophyte communities as both the local and the landscape scale were important for this group of animals. Data were collected from several types of ponds, including those created on nature reserves specifically for wildlife, old field ponds (at least 150 years old) primarily created for watering livestock and subsidence ponds outside protected areas or amongst coastal dunes. No one pond type supported all the species. Larger, deeper ponds on nature reserves had the highest numbers of species within individual ponds but shallow, temporary sites on farm land supported a distinct temporary water fauna. The conservation of pond snails in this region requires a diversity of pond types rather than one idealised type and ponds scattered throughout the area at a variety of sites, not just concentrated on nature reserves