A scoring test on probabilistic seismic hazard estimates in Italy

"Probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard represent a basic element for seismic risk reduction strategies and they are a key element of seismic regulation. Thus, it is important to select the most effective estimates among the available ones. An empirical scoring strategy is described here and is applied to a number of time-independent hazard estimates available in Italy both at national and regional scale. The scoring test is based on the comparison of outcomes provided by available computational models at a number of accelero-metric sites where observations are available for 25 years. This comparison also allows identifying computational models that, providing outcomes that are in contrast with observations, should thus be discarded. The analysis shows that most of the hazard estimates proposed for Italy are not in contrast with observations and some computational models perform significantly better than others do. Furthermore, one can see that, at least locally, older estimates can perform better than the most recent ones. Finally, since the same computational model can perform differently depending on the region considered and on average return time of concern, no single model can be considered as the best-performing one. This implies that, moving along the hazard curve, the most suitable model should be selected by considering the specific problem of concern.

LASSCI2009.2: layered earthquake rupture forecast model for central Italy, submitted to the CSEP project

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) selected Italy as a testing region for probabilistic earthquake forecast models in October, 2008. The model we have submitted for the two medium-term forecast periods of 5 and 10 years (from 2009) is a time-dependent, geologically based, earthquake rupture forecast that is defined for central Italy only (11-15 ̊ E; 41-45 ̊ N). The model took into account three separate layers of seismogenic sources: background seismicity; seismotectonic provinces; and individual faults that can produce major earthquakes (seismogenic boxes). For CSEP testing purposes, the background seismicity layer covered a range of magnitudes from 5.0 to 5.3 and the seismicity rates were obtained by truncated Gutenberg-Richter relationships for cells centered on the CSEP grid. Then the seismotectonic provinces layer returned the expected rates of medium-to-large earthquakes following a traditional Cornell-type approach. Finally, for the seismogenic boxes layer, the rates were based on the geometry and kinematics of the faults that different earthquake recurrence models have been assigned to, ranging from pure Gutenberg- Richter behavior to characteristic events, with the intermediate behavior named as the hybrid model. The results for different magnitude ranges highlight the contribution of each of the three layers to the total computation. The expected rates for M > 6.0 on April 1, 2009 (thus computed before the L'Aquila, 2009, Mw = 6.3 earthquake) are of particular interest. They showed local maxima in the two seismogenic-box sources of Paganica and Sulmona, one of which was activated by the L'Aquila earthquake of April 6, 2009. Earthquake rates as of August 1, 2009, (now under test) also showed a maximum close to the Sulmona source for Mw ~ 6.5; significant seismicity rates (10-4 to 10-3 in 5 years) for destructive events (magnitude up to 7.0) were located in other individual sources identified as being capable of such earthquakes in the central part of this area of the Apennines

Faglie e terremoti all’Etna: analisi delle ricorrenze degli eventi sismici e confronto fra ipotesi stazionarie e time-dependent per la stima della pericolosità sismica

I modelli di pericolosità sismica tradizionali utilizzano ipotesi semplificate di distribuzione omogenea della sismicità nello spazio, e stazionaria nel tempo. Negli ultimi decenni, grazie anche ad una aumentata disponibilità di osservazioni geologiche e paleosismologiche, stanno prendendo rilievo modelli più strettamente collegati alla fagliazione sismogenetica, che tengano in considerazione anche le variazioni temporali legate al ciclo sismico. In Italia, queste applicazioni sono prevalentemente a carattere metodologico ed esplorativo, dato che solo un limitatissimo numero di strutture sismogenetiche dispone di dati osservativi indispensabili per questo tipo di analisi (ad es. Pace et al., 2006; Peruzza, 2006; Peruzza et al., 2008). Tra queste, le faglie etnee rappresentano un caso di studio particolare per entità, tipologia e frequenza della fagliazione superficiale e della sismicità associata (Azzaro, 1999). Per tale motivo, nell’ambito del progetto DPC V4-Flank finalizzato alla valutazione dell’hazard connesso alla dinamica di fianco all’Etna, abbiamo applicato ai principali sistemi di faglie attive dell’edificio vulcanico, le tecniche di stima dell’hazard basate sulle ipotesi di terremoto caratteristico e dipendenza temporale dall’ultimo evento. A partire dal modello sismotettonico (Azzaro, 2004) e dal catalogo sismico di riferimento (CMTE, Azzaro et al., 2000, 2002, 2006), sono state analizzate le sequenze di eventi sismici attribuibili alle diverse strutture sismogenetiche e ricostruite le loro storie sismiche. Una caratteristica comune nello stile di rilascio sismico di molte faglie è la presenza di terremoti maggiori e minori alternati nel tempo, in una sorta di cicli sismici intervallati da brevi periodo di ritorno (decine di anni) (Fig. 1 in alto). E’ evidente, per alcune strutture sismogenetiche contigue, anche la loro attivazione alternata nel tempo (Fig. 1 in basso). Per ogni singola faglia sono stati quindi verificati i possibili modelli di occorrenza applicando distribuzioni diverse in accordo con ipotesi stazionarie o time-dependent (Fig. 2). I risultati preliminari suggeriscono una certa periodicità degli eventi maggiori associati alle diverse strutture, rappresentata dal coefficiente di variazione sul dataset degli intertempi. Dal momento che le stime di hazard sismico variano in relazione al diverso tempo trascorso dall’ultimo terremoto su ciascuna struttura, applicando un processo con memoria attraverso una funzione di distribuzione del tipo BPT, è stato calcolato l’incremento o la diminuzione della probabilità di un successivo evento sismico, rispetto alle ipotesi poissoniane. Gli sviluppi previsti sono mirati a comprendere anche il ruolo delle strutture sismogenetiche analizzate nei processi geodinamici locali

Fault2SHA Central Apennines database and structuring active fault data for seismic hazard assessment

We present a database of field data for active faults in the central Apennines, Italy, including trace, fault and main fault locations with activity and location certainties, and slip-rate, slip-vector and surface geometry data. As advances occur in our capability to create more detailed fault-based hazard models, depending on the availability of primary data and observations, it is desirable that such data can be organized in a way that is easily understood and incorporated into present and future models. The database structure presented herein aims to assist this process. We recommend stating what observations have led to different location and activity certainty and presenting slip-rate data with point location coordinates of where the data were collected with the time periods over which they were calculated. Such data reporting allows more complete uncertainty analyses in hazard and risk modelling. The data and maps are available as kmz, kml, and geopackage files with the data presented in spreadsheet files and the map coordinates as txt files. The files are available at: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.922582

Educazione al terremoto. Esperienze e risultati del progetto EDURISK

Experiences and results of the EDURISK project: an educational project to seismic ris

Stressed caregivers. An observational study in a rehabilitation care home in western Sicily

Introduction: Caregiver is the person who takes care of the patient from the practical point of view, helping him in managing the disease and carrying out daily activities, but also supporting him on an emotional level. Caregiver burnout is a state of physical, emotional, and mental exhaustion that may be accompanied by a change in attitude from positive and caring to negative and unconcerned. The aim of the study was to understand what factors were associated with having panic attacks or crying crises in the caregivers of our study population. Materials and methods: The study design is observational. An anonymous questionnaire was administered to caregivers of the patients of a hospital for the intensive post-acute rehabilitation from April 2016 to December 2018. The statistical significance level chosen for the entire analysis was 0.05. The covariates to be included were selected using a stepwise backward selection process, with a univariate p-value <0.25 as the main criterion. Results are expressed as adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) with 95% Confidence Intervals (CI). Results: The sample consists of 302 caregivers (60.93% was females and 39.07% was males). The mean age of the sample is 53.42 years old (SD ± 12.19). The multivariable logistic regression model shows that the risk to have panic or crying crisis is significantly associated with the following indipendent variables: female gender (aOR 27.06); living with the patient (aOR 4.38); had claimed that the problems related to the illness of their family member is a source of stress (aOR 23.54), smoking cigarettes (aOR 14.68); had claimed that taking care of their client affected their personal financial statement/career (aOR 5.95), having free time (aOR 7.68). Conclusions: In our study we found a greater probability of having panic attacks or crying crises in female subjects, smokers, who think they have sacrificed their careers to take care of the person they follow from a welfare point of view. Certainly in the light of what has emerged it is necessary to dedicate and pay close attention to the psychological and social aspects of the caregiver

When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 2: Computational implementation and first results

Abstract. This paper describes the model implementation and presents results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Mt. Etna volcanic region in Sicily, Italy, considering local volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Working in a volcanic region presents new challenges not typically faced in standard PSHA, which are broadly due to the nature of the local volcano-tectonic earthquakes, the cone shape of the volcano and the attenuation properties of seismic waves in the volcanic region. These have been accounted for through the development of a seismic source model that integrates data from different disciplines (historical and instrumental earthquake datasets, tectonic data, etc.; presented in Part 1, by Azzaro et al., 2017) and through the development and software implementation of original tools for the computation, such as a new ground-motion prediction equation and magnitude–scaling relationship specifically derived for this volcanic area, and the capability to account for the surficial topography in the hazard calculation, which influences source-to-site distances. Hazard calculations have been carried out after updating the most recent releases of two widely used PSHA software packages (CRISIS, as in Ordaz et al., 2013; the OpenQuake engine, as in Pagani et al., 2014). Results are computed for short- to mid-term exposure times (10 % probability of exceedance in 5 and 30 years, Poisson and time dependent) and spectral amplitudes of engineering interest. A preliminary exploration of the impact of site-specific response is also presented for the densely inhabited Etna's eastern flank, and the change in expected ground motion is finally commented on. These results do not account for M  >  6 regional seismogenic sources which control the hazard at long return periods. However, by focusing on the impact of M  <  6 local volcano-tectonic earthquakes, which dominate the hazard at the short- to mid-term exposure times considered in this study, we present a different viewpoint that, in our opinion, is relevant for retrofitting the existing buildings and for driving impending interventions of risk reduction

Which fault threatens me most? Bridging the gap between geologic data-providers and seismic risk practitioners

The aim of the Fault2SHA European Seismological Commission Working Group Central Apennines laboratory is to enhance the use of geological data in fault-based seismic hazard and risk assessment and to promote synergies between data providers (earthquake geologists), end users and decision-makers. Here we use the Fault2SHA Central Apennines Database where geologic data are provided in the form of characterized fault traces, grouped into faults and master faults, with individual slip rate estimates. The proposed methodology first derives slip rate profiles for each master fault. Master faults are then divided into distinct sections of length comparable to the seismogenic depth to allow consideration of variable slip rates along master faults and the exploration of multi-fault ruptures in the computations. The methodology further allows exploration of epistemic uncertainties documented in the database (e.g. master fault definition, slip rates) as well as additional parameters required to characterize the seismogenic potential of fault sources (e.g. 3D fault geometries). To illustrate the power of the methodology, in this paper we consider only one branch of the uncertainties affecting each step of the computation procedure. The resulting hazard and typological risk maps allow both data providers and end-users (1) to visualize the faults that threaten specific localities the most, (2) to appreciate the density of observations used for the computation of slip rate profiles, and (3) interrogate the degree of confidence on the fault parameters documented in the database (activity and location certainty). Finally, closing the loop, the methodology highlights priorities for future geological investigations in terms of where improvements in the density of data within the database would lead to the greatest decreases in epistemic uncertainties in the hazard and risk calculations. Key to this new generation of fault-based seismic hazard and risk methodology are the user-friendly open source codes provided with this publication, documenting, step-by-step, the link between the geological database and the relative contribution of each section to seismic hazard and risk at specific localities