Mechanistic approaches to understanding and predicting mammalian space use: Recent advances, future directions

The coming of age of global positioning system telemetry, in conjunction with recent theoretical innovations for formulating quantitative descriptions of how different ecological forces and behavioral mechanisms shape patterns of animal space use, has led to renewed interest and insight into animal home-range patterns. This renaissance is likely to continue as a result of ongoing synergies between these empirical and theoretical advances. In this article I review key developments that have occurred over the past decade that are furthering our understanding of the ecology of animal home ranges. I then outline what I perceive as important future directions for furthering our ability to understand and predict mammalian home-range patterns. Interesting directions for future research include improved insights into the environmental and social context of animal movement decisions and resulting patterns of space use; quantifying the role of memory in animal movement decisions; and examining the relevance of these advances in our understanding of animal movement behavior and space use to questions concerning the demography and abundance of animal populations.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog

Memory drives the formation of animal home ranges: evidence from a reintroduction

Most animals live in home ranges, and memory is thought to be an important process in their formation. However, a general memory-based model for characterising and predicting home range emergence has been lacking. Here, we use a mechanistic movement model to: (1) quantify the role of memory in the movements of a large mammal reintroduced into a novel environment, and (2) predict observed patterns of home range emergence in this experimental setting. We show that an interplay between memory and resource preferences is the primary process influencing the movements of reintroduced roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). Our memory-based model fitted with empirical data successfully predicts the formation of home ranges, as well as emergent properties of movement and spatial revisitation observed in the reintroduced animals. These results provide a mechanistic framework for combining memory-based movements, resource preferences, and the formation of home ranges in nature

Imaging spectrometry-derived estimates of regional ecosystem composition for the Sierra Nevada, California

The composition of the plant canopy is a key attribute of terrestrial ecosystems, influencing the fluxes of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Terrestrial ecosystem and biosphere models, which are used to predict how ecosystems are expected to respond to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land-use change, require accurate representations of plant canopy composition at large spatial scales. The ability to accurately specify plant canopy composition is important because it determines the physiological and ecological properties of plants (such as leaf photosynthetic capacity, patterns of plant carbon allocation and tissue turnover, and the resulting dynamics of plant demography) that govern the biophysical and biogeochemical functioning of ecosystems. Traditionally, plant canopy composition has been represented in a coarse-grained manner within terrestrial biosphere models, with ecosystems being comprised of a single plant functional type (PFT). However, models are increasingly seeking to represent fine-scale spatial variation in plant functional diversity. In this study, we show how imaging spectrometry measurements can provide spatially-comprehensive estimates of within-biome heterogeneity in PFT composition across a functionally diverse and topographically heterogeneous ~710 km2 area in the Southern Sierra Mountains of California. AVIRIS (Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer) data at 18 m resolution from the recent HyspIRI Preparatory Mission (Hyperspectral InfraRed Imager) were used to estimate the sub-pixel fractions of seven PFTs represented in the ED2 terrestrial biosphere model: Shrub, Oak, Western Hardwood, Western Pine, Cedar/Fir, and High-elevation Pine, plus a Grass/NPV (Non-Photosynthetic Vegetation) fraction using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA). ED2 is an individual-based terrestrial biosphere model capable of representing fine-scale sub-pixel ecosystem heterogeneity. Our results show that this methodology captures important elevation-related shifts in canopy composition that occur within the study area that are not resolved by existing multi-spectral land-cover products. These estimates modestly improved when the putative PFT endmembers considered in the mixture analysis were constrained using available geospatial data about the presence and absence of the PFTs in particular areas: the average RMSEs (root-mean-square errors) with the geospatially-constrained versus conventional method were 11.3% and 11.9% respectively, with larger reductions in the bias (i.e. mean error) in the abundances of Oak, Cedar/Fir, and Western Hardwood PFTs (ranging from 2.0% to 7.8%). At the hectare scale around four flux towers in the Southern Sierra Mountains, the overall composition improved from an RMSE of 18.2% (5.0-24.2% for individual PFTs) to RMSE 9.5% (3.3-13.2% for individual PFTs). Downgrading AVIRIS to 30 m resolution resulted in a reduction in accuracy of the constrained method to an RMSE of 12.7% (0-23.7%) with < 1% change in bias for all tree and shrub PFTs. Our results demonstrate that imaging spectrometry measurements from planned satellite missions such as HyspIRI, EnMAP (Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program), and HISUI (Hyper-spectral Imager SUIte) can provide important and much-needed information about fine-scale heterogeneity in the composition of plant canopies for constraining and improving terrestrial ecosystem and biosphere model simulations of regional- and global-scale vegetation dynamics and function

An Ecosystem-Scale Model for the Spread of a Host-Specific Forest Pathogen in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The introduction of nonnative pathogens is altering the scale, magnitude, and persistence of forest disturbance regimes in the western United States. In the high-altitude whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) is an introduced fungal pathogen that is now the principal cause of tree mortality in many locations. Although blister rust eradication has failed in the past, there is nonetheless substantial interest in monitoring the disease and its rate of progression in order to predict the future impact of forest disturbances within this critical ecosystem. This study integrates data from five different field-monitoring campaigns from 1968 to 2008 to create a blister rust infection model for sites located throughout the GYE. Our model parameterizes the past rates of blister rust spread in order to project its future impact on high-altitude whitebark pine forests. Because the process of blister rust infection and mortality of individuals occurs over the time frame of many years, the model in this paper operates on a yearly time step and defines a series of whitebark pine infection classes: susceptible, slightly infected, moderately infected, and dead. In our analysis, we evaluate four different infection models that compare local vs. global density dependence on the dynamics of blister rust infection. We compare models in which blister rust infection is: (1) independent of the density of infected trees, (2) locally density-dependent, (3) locally density-dependent with a static global infection rate among all sites, and (4) both locally and globally density-dependent. Model evaluation through the predictive loss criterion for Bayesian analysis supports the model that is both locally and globally density-dependent. Using this best-fit model, we predicted the average residence times for the four stages of blister rust infection in our model, and we found that, on average, whitebark pine trees within the GYE remain susceptible for 6.7 years, take 10.9 years to transition from slightly infected to moderately infected, and take 9.4 years to transition from moderately infected to dead. Using our best-fit model, we project the future levels of blister rust infestation in the GYE at critical sites over the next 20 years

Differences in xylem and leaf hydraulic traits explain differences in drought tolerance among mature Amazon rainforest trees

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the composition and structure of Amazon forests. Building upon results from two large-scale ecosystem drought experiments in the eastern Brazilian Amazon that observed increases in mortality rates among some tree species but not others, in this study we investigate the physiological traits underpinning these differential demographic responses. Xylem pressure at 50% conductivity (xylem-P50 ), leaf turgor loss point (TLP), cellular osmotic potential (πo ), and cellular bulk modulus of elasticity (ε), all traits mechanistically linked to drought tolerance, were measured on upper canopy branches and leaves of mature trees from selected species growing at the two drought experiment sites. Each species was placed a priori into one of four plant functional type (PFT) categories: drought-tolerant versus drought-intolerant based on observed mortality rates, and subdivided into early- versus late-successional based on wood density. We tested the hypotheses that the measured traits would be significantly different between the four PFTs and that they would be spatially conserved across the two experimental sites. Xylem-P50 , TLP, and πo , but not ε, occurred at significantly higher water potentials for the drought-intolerant PFT compared to the drought-tolerant PFT; however, there were no significant differences between the early- and late-successional PFTs. These results suggest that these three traits are important for determining drought tolerance, and are largely independent of wood density-a trait commonly associated with successional status. Differences in these physiological traits that occurred between the drought-tolerant and drought-intolerant PFTs were conserved between the two research sites, even though they had different soil types and dry-season lengths. This more detailed understanding of how xylem and leaf hydraulic traits vary between co-occuring drought-tolerant and drought-intolerant tropical tree species promises to facilitate a much-needed improvement in the representation of plant hydraulics within terrestrial ecosystem and biosphere models, which will enhance our ability to make robust predictions of how future changes in climate will affect tropical forests

Mapping tropical forest functional variation at satellite remote sensing resolutions depends on key traits

Although tropical forests differ substantially in form and function, they are often represented as a single biome in global change models, hindering understanding of how different tropical forests will respond to environmental change. The response of the tropical forest biome to environmental change is strongly influenced by forest type. Forest types differ based on functional traits and forest structure, which are readily derived from high resolution airborne remotely sensed data. Whether the spatial resolution of emerging satellite-derived hyperspectral data is sufficient to identify different tropical forest types is unclear. Here, we resample airborne remotely sensed forest data at spatial resolutions relevant to satellite remote sensing (30 m) across two sites in Malaysian Borneo. Using principal component and cluster analysis, we derive and map seven forest types. We find ecologically relevant variations in forest type that correspond to substantial differences in carbon stock, growth, and mortality rate. We find leaf mass per area and canopy phosphorus are critical traits for distinguishing forest type. Our findings highlight the importance of these parameters for accurately mapping tropical forest types using space borne observations

Reflections from the Workshop on AI-Assisted Decision Making for Conservation

In this white paper, we synthesize key points made during presentations and discussions from the AI-Assisted Decision Making for Conservation workshop, hosted by the Center for Research on Computation and Society at Harvard University on October 20-21, 2022. We identify key open research questions in resource allocation, planning, and interventions for biodiversity conservation, highlighting conservation challenges that not only require AI solutions, but also require novel methodological advances. In addition to providing a summary of the workshop talks and discussions, we hope this document serves as a call-to-action to orient the expansion of algorithmic decision-making approaches to prioritize real-world conservation challenges, through collaborative efforts of ecologists, conservation decision-makers, and AI researchers.Comment: Co-authored by participants from the October 2022 workshop: https://crcs.seas.harvard.edu/conservation-worksho

New science, synthesis, scholarship, and strategic vision for society

Harvard Forest LTER (HFR) is a two decade-strong, integrated research and educational program investigating responses of forest dynamics to natural and human disturbances and environmental changes over broad spatial and temporal scales. HFR engages \u3e30 researchers, \u3e200 graduate and undergraduate students, and dozens of institutions in research into fundamental and applied ecological questions of national and international relevance. Through LTER I–IV, HFR has added historical perspectives, expanded its scope to the New England region, integrated social, biological, and physical sciences, and developed education and outreach programs for K-12, undergraduate, and graduate students, along with managers, decision-makers, and media professionals

The Central Amazon Biomass Sink Under Current and Future Atmospheric CO2: Predictions From Big-Leaf and Demographic Vegetation Models

There is large uncertainty whether Amazon forests will remain a carbon sink as atmospheric CO2 increases. Hence, we simulated an old-growth tropical forest using six versions of four terrestrial models differing in scale of vegetation structure and representation of biogeochemical (BGC) cycling, all driven with CO2 forcing from the preindustrial period to 2100. The models were benchmarked against tree inventory and eddy covariance data from a Brazilian site for present-day predictions. All models predicted positive vegetation growth that outpaced mortality, leading to continual increases in present-day biomass accumulation. Notably, the two vegetation demographic models (VDMs) (ED2 and ELM-FATES) always predicted positive stem diameter growth in all size classes. The field data, however, indicated that a quarter of canopy trees didn't grow over the 15-year period, and while high interannual variation existed, biomass change was near neutral. With a doubling of CO2, three of the four models predicted an appreciable biomass sink (0.77 to 1.24 Mg ha−1 year−1). ELMv1-ECA, the only model used here that includes phosphorus constraints, predicted the lowest biomass sink relative to initial biomass stocks (+21%), lower than the other BGC model, CLM5 (+48%). Models projections differed primarily through variations in nutrient constraints, then carbon allocation, initial biomass, and density-dependent mortality. The VDM's performance was similar or better than the BGC models run in carbon-only mode, suggesting that nutrient competition in VDMs will improve predictions. We demonstrate that VDMs are comparable to nondemographic (i.e., “big-leaf”) models but also include finer scale demography and competition that can be evaluated against field observations. ©2020. The Authors

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change

Understanding how changes in climate will affect terrestrial ecosystems is particularly important in tropical forest regions, which store large amounts of carbon and exert important feedbacks onto regional and global climates. By combining multiple types of observations with a state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem model, we demonstrate that the sensitivity of tropical forests to changes in climate is dependent on the length of the dry season and soil type, but also, importantly, on the dynamics of individual-level competition within plant canopies. These interactions result in ecosystems that are more sensitive to changes in climate than has been predicted by traditional models but that transition from one ecosystem type to another in a continuous, non–tipping-point manner.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog