Understanding how changes in climate will affect terrestrial ecosystems is particularly important in tropical forest regions, which store large amounts of carbon and exert important feedbacks onto regional and global climates. By combining multiple types of observations with a state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem model, we demonstrate that the sensitivity of tropical forests to changes in climate is dependent on the length of the dry season and soil type, but also, importantly, on the dynamics of individual-level competition within plant canopies. These interactions result in ecosystems that are more sensitive to changes in climate than has been predicted by traditional models but that transition from one ecosystem type to another in a continuous, non–tipping-point manner.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog

Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban

Baccini, Alessandro

Brienen, Roel J. W.

Erwin, Terry L.

Feldpausch, Ted R.

Levine, Naomi

Lewis, Simon L.

Longo, Marcos

Malhi, Yadvinder

Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo

Moorcroft, Paul R

Nuñez Vargas, Percy

Phillips, Oliver L.

Prieto, Adriana

Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina

Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo

Zhang, Ke

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

PubMed

Harvard University - DASH 

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change

Significance
          Understanding how changes in climate will affect terrestrial ecosystems is particularly important in tropical forest regions, which store large amounts of carbon and exert important feedbacks onto regional and global climates. By combining multiple types of observations with a state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem model, we demonstrate that the sensitivity of tropical forests to changes in climate is dependent on the length of the dry season and soil type, but also, importantly, on the dynamics of individual-level competition within plant canopies. These interactions result in ecosystems that are more sensitive to changes in climate than has been predicted by traditional models but that transition from one ecosystem type to another in a continuous, non–tipping-point manner.</jats:p

Naomi M. Levine

Ke Zhang

Marcos Longo

Alessandro Baccini

Oliver L. Phillips

Simon L. Lewis

Esteban Alvarez-Dávila

Ana Cristina Segalin de Andrade

Roel J. W. Brienen

Terry L. Erwin

Ted R. Feldpausch

Abel Lorenzo Monteagudo Mendoza

Percy Nuñez Vargas

Adriana Prieto

Javier Eduardo Silva-Espejo

Yadvinder Malhi

Paul R. Moorcroft

Crossref

Amazon forests, which store ∼50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale dieback of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions

Levine, Naomi Marcil

Alvarez, Esteban

Andrade, Ana Cristina Segalin de

Brienen, Roel J.W.

Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo

Vargas, Percy Núñez

Malhi, Yadvinder Singh

Moorcroft, Paul R.

Repositório do INPA

Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change

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Harvard University - DASH

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