Modelling Unobserved Heterogeneity in Health and Health Care: an Extended Latent Class Approach

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Does hospital competition harm equity? Evidence from the English National Health Service

Increasing evidence shows that hospital competition under fixed prices can improve quality and reduce cost. Concerns remain, however, that competition may undermine socio-economic equity in the utilisation of care. We test this hypothesis in the context of the pro-competition reforms of the English National Health Service progressively introduced from 2004 to 2006. We use a panel of 32,482 English small areas followed from 2003 to 2008 and a difference in differences approach. The effect of competition on equity is identified by the interaction between market structure, small area income deprivation and year. We find a negative association between market dispersion and elective admissions in deprived areas. The effect of pro-competition reform was to reduce this negative association slightly, suggesting that competition did not undermine equity.

Measuring change in health care equity using small area administrative data – evidence from the English NHS 2001-8

This study developed a method for measuring change in socio-economic equity in health care utilisation using small area level administrative data. Our method provides more detailed information on utilisation than survey data but only examines socio-economic differences between neighbourhoods rather than individuals. The context was the English NHS from 2001 to 2008, a period of accelerated expenditure growth and pro-competition reform. Hospital records for all adults receiving non-emergency hospital care in the English NHS from 2001 to 2008 were aggregated to 32,482 English small areas with mean population about 1,500 and combined with other small area administrative data. Regression models of utilisation were used to examine year-on-year change in the small area association between deprivation and utilisation, allowing for population size, age-sex composition and disease prevalence including (from 2003-8) cancer, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, diabetes, epilepsy, hypertension, hypothyroidism, stroke, transient ischaemic attack and (from 2006-8) atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity and heart failure. There was no substantial change in small area associations between deprivation and utilisation for outpatient visits, hip replacement, senile cataract, gastroscopy or coronary revascularisation, though overall non-emergency inpatient admissions rose slightly faster in more deprived areas than elsewhere. Associations between deprivation and disease prevalence changed little during the period, indicating that observed need did not grow faster in more deprived areas than elsewhere. We conclude that there was no substantial deterioration in socio-economic equity in health care utilisation in the English NHS from 2001 to 2008, and if anything, there may have been a slight improvement.

Uncontrolled diabetes and healthcare utilisation: a bivariate Latent Markov model

Although uncontrolled diabetes (UD) or poor glycaemic control is a widespread condition with potentially life‐threatening consequences, there is sparse evidence of its effects on health care utilisation. We jointly model the propensities to consume health care and UD by employing an innovative bivariate latent Markov model that allows for dynamic unobserved heterogeneity, movements between latent states and the endogeneity of UD. We estimate the effects of UD on primary and secondary health care consumption using a panel dataset of rich administrative records from Spain and measure UD using a biomarker. We find that, conditional on time‐varying unobservables, UD does not have a statistically significant direct effect on health care use (...

Uncontrolled diabetes and health care utilisation: a bivariate Latent Markov model approach [WP]

While uncontrolled diabetes (UD) or poor glycaemic control is a widespread condition with potentially life-threatening consequences, there is sparse evidence of its effects on health care utilisation. We model the propensities to consume health care and UD by employing an innovative bivariate Latent Markov model which allows for dynamic unobserved heterogeneity, movements between latent states and the endogeneity of UD. We estimate the effects of UD on primary and secondary Health care consumption using a panel dataset of rich administrative records from Spain and measure UD using a biomarker. We find that UD does not have a statistically significant effect on health care use. Furthermore, individuals appear to move across latent classes and increase their propensities to poor glycaemic control and health care use over time. Our results suggest that by ignoring time-varying unobserved heterogeneity and the endogeneity of UD, the effects of UD on health care utilisation might be overestimated and this could lead to biased findings. Our approach reveals heterogeneity in behaviour beyond standard groupings of frequent versus infreqüent users of health care services. We argue that this dynamic latent Markov approach could be used more widely to model the determinants of health care use

Does hospital competition harm equity? Evidence from the English National Health Service

Increasing evidence shows that hospital competition under fixed prices can improve quality and reduce cost. Concerns remain, however, that competition may undermine socio-economic equity in the utilisation of care. We test this hypothesis in the context of the pro-competition reforms of the English National Health Service progressively introduced from 2004 to 2006. We use a panel of 32,482 English small areas followed from 2003 to 2008 and a difference in differences approach. The effect of competition on equity is identified by the interaction between market structure, small area income deprivation and year. We find a negative association between market dispersion and elective admissions in deprived areas. The effect of pro-competition reform was to reduce this negative association slightly, suggesting that competition did not undermine equity

Measuring Change in Health Care Equity Using Small Area Administrative Data : Evidence from the English NHS 2001-8

This study developed a method for measuring change in socio-economic equity in health care utilisation using small area level administrative data. Our method provides more detailed information on utilisation than survey data but only examines socio-economic differences between neighbourhoods rather than individuals. The context was the English NHS from 2001 to 2008, a period of accelerated expenditure growth and pro-competition reform. Hospital records for all adults receiving non-emergency hospital care in the English NHS from 2001 to 2008 were aggregated to 32,482 English small areas with mean population about 1,500 and combined with other small area administrative data. Regression models of utilisation were used to examine year-on-year change in the small area association between deprivation and utilisation, allowing for population size, age-sex composition and disease prevalence including (from 2003-8) cancer, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, diabetes, epilepsy, hypertension, hypothyroidism, stroke, transient ischaemic attack and (from 2006-8) atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity and heart failure. There was no substantial change in small area associations between deprivation and utilisation for outpatient visits, hip replacement, senile cataract, gastroscopy or coronary revascularisation, though overall non-emergency inpatient admissions rose slightly faster in more deprived areas than elsewhere. Associations between deprivation and disease prevalence changed little during the period, indicating that observed need did not grow faster in more deprived areas than elsewhere. We conclude that there was no substantial deterioration in socio-economic equity in health care utilisation in the English NHS from 2001 to 2008, and if anything, there may have been a slight improvement

Does hospital competition harm equity? Evidence from the English National Health Service

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Hospital readmission rates: signal of failure or success?

Hospital readmission rates are increasingly used as signals of hospital performance and a basis for hospital reimbursement. However, their interpretation may be complicated by differential patient survival rates. If patient characteristics are not perfectly observable and hospitals differ in their mortality rates, then hospitals with low mortality rates are likely to have a larger share of un-observably sicker patients at risk of a readmission. Their performance on readmissions will then be underestimated. We examine hospitals' performance relaxing the assumption of independence between mortality and readmissions implicitly adopted in many empirical applications. We use data from the Hospital Episode Statistics on emergency admissions for fractured hip in 290,000 patients aged 65 and over from 2003 to 2008 in England. We find evidence of sample selection bias that affects inference from traditional models. We use a bivariate sample selection model to allow for the selection process and the dichotomous nature of the outcome variables