Reducing the probability of false positive research findings by pre-publication validation – Experience with a large multiple sclerosis database

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Published false positive research findings are a major problem in the process of scientific discovery. There is a high rate of lack of replication of results in clinical research in general, multiple sclerosis research being no exception. Our aim was to develop and implement a policy that reduces the probability of publishing false positive research findings.</p> <p>We have assessed the utility to work with a pre-publication validation policy after several years of research in the context of a large multiple sclerosis database.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The large database of the Sylvia Lawry Centre for Multiple Sclerosis Research was split in two parts: one for hypothesis generation and a validation part for confirmation of selected results. We present case studies from 5 finalized projects that have used the validation policy and results from a simulation study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In one project, the "relapse and disability" project as described in section II (example 3), findings could not be confirmed in the validation part of the database. The simulation study showed that the percentage of false positive findings can exceed 20% depending on variable selection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We conclude that the validation policy has prevented the publication of at least one research finding that could not be validated in an independent data set (and probably would have been a "true" false-positive finding) over the past three years, and has led to improved data analysis, statistical programming, and selection of hypotheses. The advantages outweigh the lost statistical power inherent in the process.</p

Fistulotomy and drainage of deep postanal space abscess in the treatment of posterior horseshoe fistula

BACKGROUND: Posterior horseshoe fistula with deep postanal space abscess is a complex disease. Most patients have a history of anorectal abscess drainage or surgery for fistula-in-ano. METHODS: Twenty-five patients who underwent surgery for posterior horseshoe fistula with deep postanal space abscess were analyzed retrospectively with respect to age, gender, previous surgery for fistula-in-ano, number of external openings, diagnostic studies, concordance between preoperative studies and operative findings for the extent of disease, operating time, healing time, complications, and recurrence. RESULTS: There were 22 (88%) men and 3 (12%) women with a median age of 37 (range, 25–58) years. The median duration of disease was 13 (range, 3–96) months. There was one external opening in 12 (48%) patients, 2 in 8 (32%), 3 in 4 (16%), and 4 in 1 (4%). Preoperative diagnosis of horseshoe fistula was made by contrast fistulography in 4 (16%) patients, by ultrasound in 3 (12%), by magnetic resonance imaging in 6 (24%), and by physical examination only in the remainder (48%). The mean ± SD operating time was 47 ± 10 min. The mean ± SD healing time was 12 ± 3 weeks. Three of the 25 patients (12%) had diabetes mellitus type II. Nineteen (76%) patients had undergone previous surgery for fistula-in-ano, while five (20%) had only perianal abscess drainage. Neither morbidity nor mortality developed. All patients were followed up for a median of 35 (range, 6–78) months and no recurrence was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Fistulotomy of the tracts along the arms of horseshoe fistula and drainage of the deep postanal space abscess with posterior midline incision that severs both the lower edge of the internal sphincter and the subcutaneous external sphincter and divides the superficial external sphincter into halves gives excellent results with no recurrence. When it is necessary, severing the halves of the superficial external sphincter unilaterally or even bilaterally in the same session does not result in anal incontinence. Close follow-up of patients until the wounds completely healed is essential in the prevention of premature wound closure and recurrence

Low prevalence of significant carotid artery disease in Iranian patients undergoing elective coronary artery bypass

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery bypass grafting ranks as one of the most frequent operations worldwide. The presence of carotid artery stenosis may increase the stroke rate in the perioperative period. Routine preoperative noninvasive assessment of the carotid arteries are recommended in many institutions to reduce the stroke rate. METHODS: 271 consecutive patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting at Shaheed Madani hospital of Tabriz, Iran (age, 58.5 Y; 73.1% male) underwent preoperative ultrasonography for assessment of carotid artery wall thickness. RESULTS: Plaque in right common, left common, right internal and left internal carotid arteries was detected in 4.8%, 7.4%, 43.2% and 42.1% of patients respectively. 5 patients (1.8%) had significant (<50%) and 3 (1.1%) patients had critical (<70%) stenosis in internal carotid arteries. Plaque formation in common carotid was not significantly different between two genders but the stenosis of left internal carotid was more frequently seen among men. Patients with plaques in right or left internal carotid arteries were significantly older. CONCLUSION: Consecutive Iranian patients undergoing elective coronary artery bypass surgery show a very low prevalence of significant carotid artery disease

Propensity scores in the presence of effect modification: A case study using the comparison of mortality on hemodialysis versus peritoneal dialysis

Purpose. To control for confounding bias from non-random treatment assignment in observational data, both traditional multivariable models and more recently propensity score approaches have been applied. Our aim was to compare a propensity score-stratified model with a traditional multivariable-adjusted model, specifically in estimating survival of hemodialysis (HD) versus peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Methods. Using the Dutch End-Stage Renal Disease Registry, we constructed a propensity score, predicting PD assignment from age, gender, primary renal disease, center of dialysis, and year of first renal replacement therapy. We developed two Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate survival on PD relative to HD, a propensity score-stratified model stratifying on the propensity score and a multivariable-adjusted model, and tested several interaction terms in both models. Results. The propensity score performed well: it showed a reasonable fit, had a good c-statistic, calibrated well and balanced the covariates. The main-effects multivariable-adjusted model and the propensity score-stratified univariable Cox model resulted in similar relative mortality risk estimates of PD compared with HD (0.99 and 0.97, respectively) with fewer significant covariates in the propensity model. After introducing the missing interaction variables for effect modification in both models, the mortality risk estimates for both main effects and interactions remained comparable, but the propensity score model had nearly as many covariates because of the additional interaction variables. Conclusion. Although the propensity score performed well, it did not alter the treatment effect in the outcome model and lost its advantage of parsimony in the presence of effect modification

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application

What we talk about when we talk about "global mindset": managerial cognition in multinational corporations

Recent developments in the global economy and in multinational corporations have placed significant emphasis on the cognitive orientations of managers, giving rise to a number of concepts such as “global mindset” that are presumed to be associated with the effective management of multinational corporations (MNCs). This paper reviews the literature on global mindset and clarifies some of the conceptual confusion surrounding the construct. We identify common themes across writers, suggesting that the majority of studies fall into one of three research perspectives: cultural, strategic, and multidimensional. We also identify two constructs from the social sciences that underlie the perspectives found in the literature: cosmopolitanism and cognitive complexity and use these two constructs to develop an integrative theoretical framework of global mindset. We then provide a critical assessment of the field of global mindset and suggest directions for future theoretical and empirical research

Freshwater transport in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system: a passive ocean

Conservation of water demands that meridional ocean and atmosphere freshwater transports (FWT) are of equal magnitude but opposite in direction. This suggests that the atmospheric FWT and its associated latent heat (LH) transport could be thought of as a \textquotedblleft coupled ocean/atmosphere mode\textquotedblright. But what is the true nature of this coupling? Is the ocean passive or active? Here we analyze a series of simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model employing highly idealized geometries but with markedly different coupled climates and patterns of ocean circulation. Exploiting streamfunctions in specific humidity coordinates for the atmosphere and salt coordinates for the ocean to represent FWT in their respective medium, we find that atmospheric FWT/LH transport is essentially independent of the ocean state. Ocean circulation and salinity distribution adjust to achieve a return freshwater pathway demanded of them by the atmosphere. So, although ocean and atmosphere FWTs are indeed coupled by mass conservation, the ocean is a passive component acting as a reservoir of freshwater

Comparative mortality of hemodialysis patients at for-profit and not-for-profit dialysis facilities in the United States, 1998 to 2003: A retrospective analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Concern lingers that dialysis therapy at for-profit (versus not-for-profit) hemodialysis facilities in the United States may be associated with higher mortality, even though 4 of every 5 contemporary dialysis patients receive therapy in such a setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Our primary objective was to compare the mortality hazards of patients initiating hemodialysis at for-profit and not-for-profit centers in the United States between 1998 and 2003. For-profit status of dialysis facilities was determined after subjects received 6 months of dialysis therapy, and mean follow-up was 1.7 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the study population (<it>N </it>= 205,076), 79.9% were dialyzed in for-profit facilities after 6 months of dialysis therapy. Dialysis at for-profit facilities was associated with higher urea reduction ratios, hemoglobin levels (including levels above 12 and 13 g/dL [120 and 130 g/L]), epoetin doses, and use of intravenous iron, and less use of blood transfusions and lower proportions of patients on the transplant waiting-list (<it>P </it>< 0.05). Patients dialyzed at for-profit and at not-for-profit facilities had similar mortality risks (adjusted hazards ratio 1.02, 95% CI 0.99–1.06, <it>P </it>= 0.143).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>While hemodialysis treatment at for-profit and not-for-profit dialysis facilities is associated with different patterns of clinical benchmark achievement, mortality rates are similar.</p

Integrated, multidisciplinary care for hand eczema: design of a randomized controlled trial and cost-effectiveness study

Background: The individual and societal burden of hand eczema is high. Literature indicates that moderate to severe hand eczema is a disease with a poor prognosis. Many patients are hampered in their daily activities, including work. High costs are related to high medical consumption, productivity loss and sick leave. Usual care is suboptimal, due to a lack of optimal instruction and coordination of care, and communication with the general practitioner/occupational physician and people involved at the workplace. Therefore, an integrated, multidisciplinary intervention involving a dermatologist, a care manager, a specialized nurse and a clinical occupational physician was developed. This paper describes the design of a study to investigate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of integrated care for hand eczema by a multidisciplinary team, coordinated by a care manager, consisting of instruction on avoiding relevant contact factors, both in the occupational and in the private environment, optimal skin care and treatment, compared to usual, dermatologist-led care. Methods: The study is a multicentre, randomized, controlled trial with an economic evaluation alongside. The study population consists of patients with chronic, moderate to severe hand eczema, who visit an outpatient clinic of one of the participating 5 (three university and two general) hospitals. Integrated, multidisciplinary care, coordinated by a care manager, including allergo-dermatological evaluation by a dermatologist, occupational intervention by a clinical occupational physician, and counselling by a specialized nurse on optimizing topical treatment and skin care will be compared with usual care by a dermatologist. The primary outcome measure is the cumulative difference in reduction of the clinical severity score HECSI between the groups. Secondary outcome measures are the patient's global assessment, specific quality of life with regard to the hands, generic quality of life, sick leave and patient satisfaction. An economic evaluation will be conducted alongside the RCT. Direct and indirect costs will be measured. Outcome measures will be assessed at baseline and after 4, 12, 26 and 52 weeks. All statistical analyses will be performed on the intention-to-treat principle. In addition, per protocol analyses will be carried out. Discussion: To improve societal participation of patients with moderate to severe hand eczema, an integrated care intervention was developed involving both person-related and environmental factors. Such integrated care is expected to improve the patients' clinical signs, quality of life and to reduce sick leave and medical costs. Results will become available in 2011

Comparing regional organizations in global multilateral institutions:ASEAN, the EU and the UN

Structural change brought about by the end of the Cold War and accelerated globalisation have transformed the global environment. A global governance complex is emerging, characterised by an ever-greater functional and regulatory role for multilateral organisations such as the United Nations (UN) and its associated agencies. The evolving global governance framework has created opportunities for regional organisations to participate as actors within the UN (and other multilateral institutions). This article compares the European Union (EU) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as actors within the UN network. It begins by extrapolating framework conditions for the emergence of EU and ASEAN actorness from the literature. The core argument of this article is that EU and ASEAN actorness is evolving in two succinct stages: Changes in the global environment create opportunities for the participation of regional organisations in global governance institutions, exposing representation and cohesion problems at the regional level. In response, ASEAN and the EU have initiated processes of institutional adaptation