Evidence about asymmetric price transmission in the main European fuel markets: from TAR-ECM to Markov-switching approach

This paper presents new evidence on the existence of asymmetries in the transmission of shocks in oil prices in the main European fuel markets and their relation to the so-called rockets and feathers effect. Our approach differs from the existing literature in two ways: (1) the data used: we use forward prices rather than spot prices because fuel leaders use forward contracts to buy crude oil. (2) The methodological approach is different. We adopt a more sophisticated econometric model, the Markov-switching model, and use it to contrast the robustness of the results obtained with the TAR-ECM methodology with an endogenous threshold (nonzero threshold). In general, the results show evidence of an asymmetric response of gasoline and diesel prices to changes in the price of crude oil, both in the short-run and with respect to the adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. These price asymmetries fall in line with the “rockets and feathers” hypothesis.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. ECO2015-67305-PBanco de España | Ref. PR71/15-20229Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. ECO2015-68367-RXunta de Galicia | Ref. GRC2014/02

Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange

This paper provides a theoretical discussion of the forward premium anomaly. We reformulate the well-known Lucas (1982) model by allowing for the existence ofmonetarypolicy regimes. The monetary supply is viewed as having two stochastic components: (a) a persistent component that reflects the preferences of the central bank regarding the long-run money supply or inflation target, and (b) a transitory component that represents short-lived interventions. To generate agents’ forecasts, we consider two scenarios: (a) consumers can distinguish the permanent and the transitory components of the money supply (complete information), and (b) consumers face a signal-extraction problem to disentangle permanent and transitory components of the money supply (incomplete information). We simulate the model from a careful estimate of the parameters involved in the model. Numerical simulations reveal that, under complete information, forward unbiasedness cannot be rejected at conventionally significant levels. However, when learning about monetary policy is incorporated, the forward bias can be reproduced without artificially assuming an unreasonable degree of risk aversion

Fossil Fuel Price Shocks and CO2 Emissions: The Case of Spain

This paper focuses on the impact of oil, natural gas and coal price shocks on the Spanish business cycle from 1969 to 2013. It uses Bayesian procedures to estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for a small open economy. The paper shows that natural gas and coal shocks are relevant sources of macroeconomic disruption in addition to oil price shocks. The three fossil fuel prices have an impact on the economic activity and explain the evolution of the energy mix. However, we find that oil price shocks have a significantly larger impact on economic volatility. Finally, we assess the impact of hydrocarbon price shocks on carbon emissions given that different price shocks result in a different fossil fuel mix and, thus, in different CO2 emissions

Complement component 3 as biomarker of disease activity and cardiometabolic risk factor in rheumatoid arthritis and spondyloarthritis.

Funder: Europeo de Desarrollo Regional de la Unión EuropeaFunder: Rheumatic Diseases NetworkOBJECTIVE: To analyze the relationship between complement component 3 (C3) and the prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors and disease activity in the rheumatic diseases having the highest rates of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality: rheumatoid arthritis (RA), psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study including 200 RA, 80 PsA, 150 axSpA patients and 100 healthy donors. The prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors [obesity, insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A (apoB/apoA) and atherogenic risks and hypertension] was analyzed. Serum complement C3 levels, inflammatory markers and disease activity were evaluated. Cluster analysis was performed to identify different phenotypes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to assess the accuracy of complement C3 as biomarker of insulin resistance and disease activity was carried out. RESULTS: Levels of complement C3, significantly elevated in RA, axSpA and PsA patients, were associated with the prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors. Hard clustering analysis identified two distinctive phenotypes of patients depending on the complement C3 levels and insulin sensitivity state. Patients from cluster 1, characterized by high levels of complement C3 displayed increased prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors and high disease activity. ROC curve analysis showed that non-obesity related complement C3 levels allowed to identify insulin resistant patients. CONCLUSIONS: Complement C3 is associated with the concomitant increased prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors in rheumatoid arthritis and spondyloarthritis. Thus, complement C3 should be considered a useful marker of insulin resistance and disease activity in these rheumatic disorders

Impact of hospitalization on nutritional status in persons aged 65 years and over (NUTRIFRAG Study): Protocol for a prospective observational study

[ES] Background Malnutrition is a recurring problem that has become more relevant in recent years. The aim of this study is to assess the risk of malnutrition and nutritional status on admission and its evolution until discharge in patients aged 65 and over admitted to medical and surgical hospitalization units in hospitals of the Spanish National Health System. Methods Prospective observational study to be carried out in the medical-surgical hospitalization units of 9 public hospitals between 01/09/2022 and 31/12/2024. Using consecutive sampling, a total of 4077 patients will be included (453 in each hospital). Variables included are related to the care process, functionality, cognition and comorbidity, risk profile, nutritional status and dysphagia; as well as frailty, dietary quality and contextual variables. The incidence of risk of malnutrition, undernutrition and dysphagia during the care process and at discharge will be calculated. The association with risk factors will be studied with logistic regression models and multivariate Cox regression models. In addition, an analysis of participants’ satisfaction with food services will be carried out. The study was approved by the Ethics and Research Committee on 30/09/2020, approved for funding on 02/12/2021 and with registration number RBR-5jnbyhk in the Brazilian clinical trials database (ReBEC) for observational studies. Discussion Some studies address nutritional status or dysphagia in older people in various care settings. However, there is a lack of large sample studies including both processes of the impact of hospitalization. The results of the project will provide information on the incidence and prevalence of both pathologies in the study subjects, their associated factors and their relationship with the average length of stay, mortality and early readmission. In addition, early detection of a problem such as malnutrition related to the disease and/or dysphagia during a hospital stay will favor the action of professionals to resolve both pathologies and improve the health status of patients.This study has been funded by Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) through the Project "PI21/00738" and co-funded by the European Union. The funders did not and will not have a role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Impact of hospitalization on nutritional status in persons aged 65 years and over (NUTRIFRAG Study): Protocol for a prospective observational study

Background: Malnutrition is a recurring problem that has become more relevant in recent years. The aim of this study is to assess the risk of malnutrition and nutritional status on admission and its evolution until discharge in patients aged 65 and over admitted to medical and surgical hospitalization units in hospitals of the Spanish National Health System. Methods: Prospective observational study to be carried out in the medical-surgical hospitalization units of 9 public hospitals between 01/09/2022 and 31/12/2024. Using consecutive sampling, a total of 4077 patients will be included (453 in each hospital). Variables included are related to the care process, functionality, cognition and comorbidity, risk profile, nutritional status and dysphagia; as well as frailty, dietary quality and contextual variables. The incidence of risk of malnutrition, undernutrition and dysphagia during the care process and at discharge will be calculated. The association with risk factors will be studied with logistic regression models and multivariate Cox regression models. In addition, an analysis of participants' satisfaction with food services will be carried out. The study was approved by the Ethics and Research Committee on 30/09/2020, approved for funding on 02/12/2021 and with registration number RBR-5jnbyhk in the Brazilian clinical trials database (ReBEC) for observational studies. Discussion: Some studies address nutritional status or dysphagia in older people in various care settings. However, there is a lack of large sample studies including both processes of the impact of hospitalization. The results of the project will provide information on the incidence and prevalence of both pathologies in the study subjects, their associated factors and their relationship with the average length of stay, mortality and early readmission. In addition, early detection of a problem such as malnutrition related to the disease and/or dysphagia during a hospital stay will favor the action of professionals to resolve both pathologies and improve the health status of patients.This study has been funded by Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) through the project "PI21/00738" and co-funded by the European Union. The funders did not and will not have a role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.S

Lo glocal y el turismo. Nuevos paradigmas de interpretación.

El estudio del turismo se realiza desde múltiples escalas y enfoques, este libro aborda muchos temas que es necesario discutir desde diversas perspectivas; es el caso de la reflexión sobre la propia disciplina y sus conceptos, así como los asuntos específicos referidos al impacto territorial, los tipos de turismo, las cuestiones ambientales, el tema de la pobreza, la competitividad, las políticas públicas, el papel de las universidades, las áreas naturales protegidas, la sustentabilidad, la cultura, el desarrollo, la seguridad, todos temas centrales documentados y expuestos con originalidad y dominio del asunto. Lo multiescalar es básico para la comprensión del sistema turístico, sistema formado de procesos globales, regionales y locales. El eje de discusión del libro es lo glocal, esa interacción entre lo nacional y local con lo global

Aprendiendo a enseñar y a fomentar el ajuste psicosocial a través de una experiencia de aprendizaje-servicio de enseñanza del español a alumnos ucranianos y otros migrantes

Memoria ID2022-173 Ayudas de la Universidad de Salamanca para la innovación docente, curso 2022-2023

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality