Climate Change and Causation:Joining Law and Climate Science on the basis of Formal Logic

A strict application of legal tests to find the cause of an event has always been a challenge for a coherent causal analysis. This is again the case for making causal statements in the climate change context, although we are witnessing unprecedented impacts of a changing climate at a global scale. While probabilistic event attribution provides information linking greenhouse gas emission levels to observable characteristics of extreme weather and climate related events, the conventional understanding of causation in law provides a very limited response to this scientific knowledge. We offer a new matrix for developing causal explanations based on formal logic, for a coherent analysis that is compatible with climate science and law. This matrix causally explains the relation between emissions, the increase in global mean surface temperature, the general increase in frequency and severity of climate related events and, most significantly, between emissions and individual climate related events

Aktionsplan Klima und Außenpolitik: Wie Deutschland zu einer führenden Klimanation werden kann

Deutschland steht in der Pflicht, eine führende Klimanation zu werden. Daran gibt es keinen Zweifel, das hat das Bundesverfassungsgericht mit seiner Entscheidung vom 29. April 2021 deutlich gemacht. Das Gericht hat nicht nur die Beachtung der Generationengerechtigkeit im begutachteten Klimagesetz angemahnt, sondern auch betont, dass sich Deutschland als führende Industrienation mit dem Unterzeichnen des Pariser Abkommens verpflichtet hat, in Bezug auf Klimaschutz mehr zu leisten als Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer

Time pressure predicts decisional regret in men with localized prostate cancer: data from a longitudinal multicenter study

Purpose: A substantial proportion of men with localized prostate cancer (lPCa) later regret their treatment decision. We aimed to identify factors contributing to decisional regret. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal study, in which men with lPCa were surveyed at four measurement points: T0 (baseline) = prior to treatment; T1 = 6; T2 = 12; T3 = 18 months after baseline. chi(2)-tests and independent t-tests were used to compare men undergoing different treatments [Active Surveillance (AS) vs. local treatment]. Logistic regression models were fitted to investigate the associations between predictors (time pressure, information provided by the urologist, impairment of erectile functioning, satisfaction with sexual life) and the criterion decisional regret. Results: At baseline, the sample included N = 176 men (AS: n = 100; local treatment: n = 76). At T2 and T3, men after local therapies reported higher regret than men under AS. Decisional regret at T3 was predicted by time pressure at baseline (OR 2.28; CI 1.04-4.99; p < 0.05), erectile dysfunction at T2 and T3 (OR 3.40; CI 1.56-7.42; p < 0.01), and satisfaction with sexual life at T1-T3 (OR 0.44; CI 0.20-0.96; p < 0.05). Conclusions: Time pressure, erectile dysfunction, and satisfaction with sexual life predict decisional regret in men with lPCa. Mitigating time pressure and realistic expectations concerning treatment side effects may help to prevent decisional regret in PCa survivors

Illness representations, coping and anxiety among men with localized prostate cancer over an 18‐months period: A parallel vs. level‐contrast mediation approach

Objective: Men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer (lPCa) are confronted with the decision for a treatment strategy, potentially experiencing treatment side effects and psychological distress. The Common Sense Model proposes that coping with such challenges is related to illness representations: Beliefs regarding consequences, coherence, timeline, and controllability of the illness. We analyzed the interplay of illness representations, coping and anxiety over an 18-month period among men with lPCa undergoing different treatment options (Active Surveillance, curative treatment). Methods: In this longitudinal study, 183 men (age M = 66.83) answered a questionnaire before starting treatment, and 6, 12, and 18 months later. We analyzed time trajectories with growth curve modeling and conducted mediation analyses to evaluate the influence of coping on the association of illness representations and anxiety. Using a novel methodological approach, we compared a classic parallel mediation model with a level-contrast approach for the correlated mediators problem- and emotion-focused coping. Results: Independent of treatment (b = 1.31, p = 0.200) men reported an elevated level of anxiety after diagnosis which declined considerably within the following 6 months (b = -1.87, p = 0.009). The perceived seriousness of consequences was significantly associated with greater anxiety, at baseline (β = 0.471) and over time (all β ≥ 0.204). This association was mediated by coping: Using more emotion-than problem-focused coping was associated with higher anxiety. Conclusions: Receiving a lPCa diagnosis is associated with a phase of increased anxiety. In order to reduce anxiety, information provision should be accompanied by developing concrete action plans to enable problem-focused coping strategies

Microstructural Analysis of Human White Matter Architecture Using Polarized Light Imaging: Views from Neuroanatomy

To date, there are several methods for mapping connectivity, ranging from the macroscopic to molecular scales. However, it is difficult to integrate this multiply-scaled data into one concept. Polarized light imaging (PLI) is a method to quantify fiber orientation in gross histological brain sections based on the birefringent properties of the myelin sheaths. The method is capable of imaging fiber orientation of larger-scale architectural patterns with higher detail than diffusion MRI of the human brain. PLI analyses light transmission through a gross histological section of a human brain under rotation of a polarization filter combination. Estimates of the angle of fiber direction and the angle of fiber inclination are automatically calculated at every point of the imaged section. Multiple sections can be assembled into a 3D volume. We describe the principles of PLI and present several studies of fiber anatomy as a synopsis of PLI: six brainstems were serially sectioned, imaged with PLI, and 3D reconstructed. Pyramidal tract and lemniscus medialis were segmented in the PLI datasets. PLI data from the internal capsule was related to results from confocal laser scanning microscopy, which is a method of smaller scale fiber anatomy. PLI fiber architecture of the extreme capsule was compared to macroscopical dissection, which represents a method of larger-scale anatomy. The microstructure of the anterior human cingulum bundle was analyzed in serial sections of six human brains. PLI can generate highly resolved 3D datasets of fiber orientation of the human brain and has high comparability to diffusion MR. To get additional information regarding axon structure and density, PLI can also be combined with classical histological stains. It brings the directional aspects of diffusion MRI into the range of histology and may represent a promising tool to close the gap between larger-scale diffusion orientation and microstructural histological analysis of connectivity

Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world’s dry regions over the last 60 years?

Daily precipitation extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the past decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these trends have not been shown to consistently affect dry regions over land. A recent study, published by Donat et al. (2016), now identified significant increases in annual-maximum daily extreme precipitation (Rx1d) and annual precipitation totals (PRCPTOT) in dry regions. Here, we revisit the applied methods and explore the sensitivity of changes in precipitation extremes and annual totals to alternative choices of defining a dry region (i.e. in terms of aridity as opposed to precipitation characteristics alone). We find that (a) statistical artifacts introduced by data pre-processing based on a time-invariant reference period lead to an overestimation of the reported trends by up to 40 %, and that (b) the reported trends of globally aggregated extremes and annual totals are highly sensitive to the definition of a "dry region of the globe". For example, using the same observational dataset, accounting for the statistical artifacts, and based on different aridity-based dryness definitions, we find a reduction in the positive trend of Rx1d from the originally reported +1.6 % decade−1 to +0.2 to +0.9 % decade−1 (period changes for 1981–2010 averages relative to 1951–1980 are reduced to −1.32 to +0.97 % as opposed to +4.85 % in the original study). If we include additional but less homogenized data to cover larger regions, the global trend increases slightly (Rx1d: +0.4 to +1.1 % decade−1), and in this case we can indeed confirm (partly) significant increases in Rx1d. However, these globally aggregated estimates remain uncertain as considerable gaps in long-term observations in the Earth's arid and semi-arid regions remain. In summary, adequate data pre-processing and accounting for uncertainties regarding the definition of dryness are crucial to the quantification of spatially aggregated trends in precipitation extremes in the world's dry regions. In view of the high relevance of the question to many potentially affected stakeholders, we call for a well-reflected choice of specific data processing methods and the inclusion of alternative dryness definitions to guarantee that communicated results related to climate change be robust.Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world’s dry regions over the last 60 years?publishedVersio

Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave

The science of extreme event attribution has rapidly expanded in recent years, with numerous studies dedicated to determining whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change has increased the likelihood of specific extreme weather events occurring. However, the majority of such studies have focussed on extreme events which have occurred in the recent past (usually within the past 10 years) while minimal research efforts have considered the multitude of high-impact extreme climatic events which occurred throughout the instrumental record. This study proposes a framework to quantify how the likelihood of witnessing meteorological characteristics reminiscent of the 1947 Central European heatwave have evolved over time. We specifically examine circulation analogues as a tool to understand the relative role of dynamical and thermodynamic contributions to changes in the probability of experiencing similar heatwave events. Using a reanalysis-based dataset, our results show changes in the frequency of 1947-like extreme heat throughout the twentieth century to be highly sensitive to methodological choices, particularly in the context of disaggregating dynamic and thermodynamic changes in the risk of extreme heat. Evidence also suggests clear decadal variability in the occurrence of circulation patterns conducive to the 1947 heatwaves. Finally, we discuss how to appropriately consider the time-evolution of attribution statements, as well as the broader limitations of employing circulation analogues as a method to interrogate the dynamical contribution to the probability ratio of an extreme event