Using design flexibility and real options to reduce risk in Private Finance Initiatives : the case of Japan

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2008.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Includes bibliographical references (p. 127-131).Private Finance Initiative (PFI) is a delivery system for public works projects to design construct, manage and maintain public facilities by using private capital, management skills, and technical abilities. It was introduced in Japan about 10 years ago to encourage the stagnant Japanese economy and provide public services with higher quality and less cost to the country and the local authority. It has been applied to many public works projects, but not to large-scale infrastructure projects, such as toll road and airport projects. One of the main reasons for this is that specific methodologies of handling risks and uncertainties involved in long-term projects have not been introduced and demonstrated to either the public or the private sector. This thesis aims to help those involved in large-scale infrastructure development projects apply PFI to those projects by proposing a flexible methodology that will allow them to handle risks. Specifically, this thesis 1) proposes a quantitative methodology so that project managers can handle uncertainty in large-scale engineering projects, and 2) demonstrates how project managers can apply the proposed methodology practically to real-world projects, including how to model and evaluate projects, and demonstrates how the proposed methodology is useful for reducing risks and enhancing the value of projects. As a quantitative methodology, this thesis proposes real options analysis as a tool for considering uncertainty and incorporating flexibility into design, based on the premise that it is crucial not how accurately project managers forecast uncertainty but how they can handle it. This thesis also explains barriers to the implementation of the proposed concepts and methodology, and recommends how to alleviate them. The thesis uses two real-world case studies: the "Tokyo International Airport New Runway Extension Project" and the "Tokyo Bay Aqua-Line Project".(cont.) Both show the process of modeling and analyzing projects and they demonstrate the benefits of the proposed concepts and methodologies, which can guide and encourage project managers to apply proposed concepts and methodology. The first case study applies a user-friendly methodology, which can alleviate the barriers to the implementation of the proposed concepts. The second case study illustrates that, by using their management skills, ingenuity, and originality, in PFI, project companies can not only reduce risks and enhance the value of projects but also contribute to the consumers' benefits and socioeconomics from the perspective of public policy, which realizes the idea of PFI.by Dai Ohama.S.M

U.S. response to an Oil Import Disruption Role of the Federal Government in Light Duty Vehicle Transportation

This report analyzes technological and policy options for the U.S. federal government response within the light duty vehicle (LDV) sector in the event of a 5 year sustained U.S. oil import curtailment of 5 MMB/D and a global supply disruption of roughly 18 MMB/D. The cause of the oil disruption is damage to the oil production infrastructure in the Middle East; therefore, it is public knowledge that the disruption will be sustained

The Hubbard model within the equations of motion approach

The Hubbard model has a special role in Condensed Matter Theory as it is considered as the simplest Hamiltonian model one can write in order to describe anomalous physical properties of some class of real materials. Unfortunately, this model is not exactly solved except for some limits and therefore one should resort to analytical methods, like the Equations of Motion Approach, or to numerical techniques in order to attain a description of its relevant features in the whole range of physical parameters (interaction, filling and temperature). In this manuscript, the Composite Operator Method, which exploits the above mentioned analytical technique, is presented and systematically applied in order to get information about the behavior of all relevant properties of the model (local, thermodynamic, single- and two- particle ones) in comparison with many other analytical techniques, the above cited known limits and numerical simulations. Within this approach, the Hubbard model is shown to be also capable to describe some anomalous behaviors of the cuprate superconductors.Comment: 232 pages, more than 300 figures, more than 500 reference

Examination at a Material and Structural Level of the Fatigue Life of Beams Strengthened with Mineral or Epoxy Bonded FRPs: The State of the Art

This paper presents a state of the art review of different material combinations and applications of mineral-based and epoxy-based bonded Fiber Reinforced Polymers (FRP), used for the strengthening of concrete structures subjected to fatigue loading. In this review, models of the fatigue life at the material and structural level are presented. This study examines the mechanical behavior of the FRP-material, surface bonding behavior and concrete beams strengthened under fatigue loading with different types of FRP-systems. The parameters that are investigated are applied load value, time dependent effects, type of strengthened structures (shear, flexural or combined) and the configuration of sheets or plates. The building codes and researchers' recommendations are also discussed. As a result of this review, the reader will obtains an overview of suitable materials and methods for strengthening structures subjected to fatigue loading by referring to the estimated fatigue life of material and strengthening structures at various applied stress levels.Validerad; 2013; 20130823 (thojoh

Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy (4th edition)1.

In 2008, we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, this topic has received increasing attention, and many scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Thus, it is important to formulate on a regular basis updated guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Despite numerous reviews, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to evaluate autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. Here, we present a set of guidelines for investigators to select and interpret methods to examine autophagy and related processes, and for reviewers to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of reports that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a dogmatic set of rules, because the appropriateness of any assay largely depends on the question being asked and the system being used. Moreover, no individual assay is perfect for every situation, calling for the use of multiple techniques to properly monitor autophagy in each experimental setting. Finally, several core components of the autophagy machinery have been implicated in distinct autophagic processes (canonical and noncanonical autophagy), implying that genetic approaches to block autophagy should rely on targeting two or more autophagy-related genes that ideally participate in distinct steps of the pathway. Along similar lines, because multiple proteins involved in autophagy also regulate other cellular pathways including apoptosis, not all of them can be used as a specific marker for bona fide autophagic responses. Here, we critically discuss current methods of assessing autophagy and the information they can, or cannot, provide. Our ultimate goal is to encourage intellectual and technical innovation in the field