35. How often medical literature may be a source of incorrect clinical decision?

Change in clinical practice results mainly from positive randomized trials (superiority of tested method confirmed by significant result of statistical test). However, the rate of false positive trials might be high among all positive trials – even 30%–50%. This percentage depends mainly on the rate of trials with a real difference in efficacy between tested methods; in lesser extend it depends on a level of type II error (a number of patients in a trial). The probable high rate of false positive trials among all positive trials indicates that a risk of undertaking of incorrect clinical decision based on literature may be also high. In addition, this risk is increased due to publication bias. Therefore, confirmatory trials are often necessary. The other issue, which might be a source of incorrect clinical decision, is lack of data enabling an assessment of generalizability of trial results: 1. a number of eligible but not enrolled patients and the reasons for treatment outside trial; 2. a comparison of a characteristic of patients on trial with a characteristic of eligible, but not enrolled patients; 3. a comparison of results of treatment of patients on trial with results of treatment of eligible, but not enrolled patients 4. data of referral pattern and information on the source population, from which patients were selected

A study of nuclei of astrophysical interest in the continuum shell model

We present here the first application of realistic shell model (SM) including coupling between many-particle (quasi-)bound states and the continuum of one-particle scattering states to the spectroscopy of 8B and to the calculation of astrophysical factors in the reaction 7Be(p,gamma)8B.Comment: 9 pages incl. 3 figures, LaTeX with iopart class and epsf. Invited talk at the Int. Workshop on Physics with Radioactive Nuclear Beams, Jan. 12-17, 1998, Puri, India. Shortened version will be published in proceedings to apear as a separate J. Phys. G volum

Ground-State Electromagnetic Moments of Calcium Isotopes

High-resolution bunched-beam collinear laser spectroscopy was used to measure the optical hyperfine spectra of the $^{43-51}$Ca isotopes. The ground state magnetic moments of $^{49,51}$Ca and quadrupole moments of $^{47,49,51}$Ca were measured for the first time, and the $^{51}$Ca ground state spin $I=3/2$ was determined in a model-independent way. Our results provide a critical test of modern nuclear theories based on shell-model calculations using phenomenological as well as microscopic interactions. The results for the neutron-rich isotopes are in excellent agreement with predictions using interactions derived from chiral effective field theory including three-nucleon forces, while lighter isotopes illustrate the presence of particle-hole excitations of the $^{40}$Ca core in their ground state.Comment: Accepted as a Rapid Communication in Physical Review

Resistance and resilience of social–ecological systems to recurrent typhoon disturbance on a subtropical island: Taiwan

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have major effects on ecological and social systems. However, studies integrating the effects of TCs on both social and ecological systems are rare, especially in the northwest Pacific, where the frequency of TCs (locally named typhoons) is the highest in the world. We synthesized studies of effects of recurrent typhoons on social and ecological systems in Taiwan over the last several decades. Many responses to TCs are comparable between social and ecological systems. High forest ecosystem resistance, evident from tree mortality below 2% even following multiple strong typhoons, is comparable with resistance of social systems, including the only 4% destruction of river embankments following a typhoon that brought nearly 3000 mm rainfall in three days. High resilience as reflected by quick returns of leaf area index, mostly in one year, and streamwater chemistry, one to several weeks to pre‐typhoon levels of ecosystems, are comparable to quick repair of the power grid within one to several days and returns of vegetable price within several weeks to pre‐typhoon levels of the social systems. Landslides associated with intense typhoons have buried mountain villages and transported large quantities of woody debris to the coast, affecting the coastal plains and reefs, illustrating a ridge‐to‐reef link between ecological and societal systems. Metrics of both social and ecological function showed large fluctuations in response to typhoons but quickly returned to pre‐disturbance levels, except when multiple intense typhoons occurred within a single season. Our synthesis illustrates that the social–ecological systems in Taiwan are highly dynamic and responsive to frequent typhoon disturbance, with extraordinarily high resistance and resilience. For ecosystems, the efficient responsiveness results from the selective force of TCs on ecosystem structure and processes. For social systems, it is the result of the effects of TCs on planning and decision making by individuals (e.g., farmers), management sectors, and ultimately the government. In regions with frequent TCs, the social–ecological systems are inevitably highly dynamic and rapid responses are fundamental to system resistance and resilience which in turn is key to maintaining structure and function of the social–ecological systems

How magic is the magic 68Ni nucleus?

We calculate the B(E2) strength in 68Ni and other nickel isotopes using several theoretical approaches. We find that in 68Ni the gamma transition to the first 2+ state exhausts only a fraction of the total B(E2) strength, which is mainly collected in excited states around 5 MeV. This effect is sensitive to the energy splitting between the fp shell and the g_{9/2}orbital. We argue that the small experimental B(E2) value is not strong evidence for the double-magic character of 68Ni.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Shell Model Study of the Double Beta Decays of 76^{76}Ge, 82^{82}Se and 136^{136}Xe

The lifetimes for the double beta decays of $^{76}$Ge, $^{82}$Se and $^{136}$Xe are calculated using very large shell model spaces. The two neutrino matrix elements obtained are in good agreement with the present experimental data. For $<1$ eV we predict the following upper bounds to the half-lives for the neutrinoless mode: $T^{(0\nu)}_{1/2}(Ge) > 1.85\,10^{25} yr.$, $T^{(0\nu)}_{1/2}(Se) > 2.36\,10^{24} yr.$ and $T^{(0\nu)}_{1/2}(Xe) > 1.21\,10^{25} yr$. These results are the first from a new generation of Shell Model calculations reaching O(10$^{8}$) dimensions

A gauge theoretic approach to elasticity with microrotations

We formulate elasticity theory with microrotations using the framework of gauge theories, which has been developed and successfully applied in various areas of gravitation and cosmology. Following this approach, we demonstrate the existence of particle-like solutions. Mathematically this is due to the fact that our equations of motion are of Sine-Gordon type and thus have soliton type solutions. Similar to Skyrmions and Kinks in classical field theory, we can show explicitly that these solutions have a topological origin.Comment: 15 pages, 1 figure; revised and extended version, one extra page; revised and extended versio