Managing stakeholder knowledge for the evaluation of innovation systems in the face of climate change

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to frame the stakeholder-driven system mapping approach in the context of climate change, building on stakeholder knowledge of system boundaries, key elements and interactions within a system and to introduce a decision support tool for managing and visualising this knowledge into insightful system maps with policy implications. Design/methodology/approach – This methodological framework is based on the concepts of market maps. The process of eliciting and visualising expert knowledge is facilitated by means of a reference implementation in MATLAB, which allows for designing technological innovation systems models in either a structured or a visual format. Findings – System mapping can contribute to evaluating systems for climate change by capturing knowledge of expert groups with regard to the dynamic interrelations between climate policy strategies and other system components, which may promote or hinder the desired transition to low carbon societies. Research limitations/implications – This study explores how system mapping addresses gaps in analytical tools and complements the systems of innovation framework. Knowledge elicitation, however, must be facilitated and build upon a structured framework such as technological innovation systems. Practical implications – This approach can provide policymakers with significant insight into the strengths and weaknesses of current policy frameworks based on tacit knowledge embedded in stakeholders. Social implications – The developed methodological framework aims to include societal groups in the climate policy-making process by acknowledging stakeholders’ role in developing transition pathways. The system map codifies stakeholder input in a structured and transparent manner. Originality/value – This is the first study that clearly defines the system mapping approach in the frame of climate policy and introduces the first dedicated software option for researchers and decision makers to use for implementing this methodology

Targeting the Endocannabinoid System for Neuroprotection: A 19F-NMR Study of a Selective FAAH Inhibitor Binding with an Anandamide Carrier Protein, HSA

Fatty acid amide hydrolase (FAAH), the enzyme involved in the inactivation of the endocannabinoid anandamide (AEA), is being considered as a therapeutic target for analgesia and neuroprotection. We have developed a brain permeable FAAH inhibitor, AM5206, which has served as a valuable pharmacological tool to explore neuroprotective effects of this class of compounds. In the present work, we characterized the interactions of AM5206 with a representative AEA carrier protein, human serum albumin (HSA), using 19F nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Our data showed that as a drug carrier, albumin can significantly enhance the solubility of AM5206 in aqueous environment. Through a series of titration and competitive binding experiments, we also identified that AM5206 primarily binds to two distinct sites within HSA. Our results may provide insight into the mechanism of HSA-AM5206 interactions. The findings should also help in the development of suitable formulations of the lipophilic AM5206 and its congeners for their effective delivery to specific target sites in the brain

Integrated policy assessment and optimisation over multiple sustainable development goals in Eastern Africa

Heavy reliance on traditional biomass for household energy in eastern Africa has significant negative health and environmental impacts. The African context for energy access is rather different from historical experiences elsewhere as challenges in achieving energy access have coincided with major climate ambitions. Policies focusing on household energy needs in eastern Africa contribute to at least three sustainable development goals (SDGs): climate action, good health, and improved energy access. This study uses an integrated assessment model to simulate the impact of land policies and technology subsidies, as well as the interaction of both, on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exposure to air pollution and energy access in eastern Africa under a range of socioeconomic pathways. We find that land policies focusing on increasing the sustainable output of biomass resources can reduce GHG emissions in the region by about 10%, but also slightly delay progress in health and energy access goals. An optimised portfolio of energy technology subsidies consistent with a global Green Climate Funds budget of 30-35 billion dollar, can yield another 10% savings in GHG emissions, while decreasing mortality related to air pollution by 20%, and improving energy access by up to 15%. After 2030, both land and technology policies become less effective, and more dependent on the overall development path of the region. The analysis shows that support for biogas technology should be prioritised in both the short and long term, while financing liquefied petroleum gas and ethanol technologies also has synergetic climate, health and energy access benefits. Instead, financing PV technologies is mostly relevant for improving energy access, while charcoal and to a lesser extend fuelwood technologies are relevant for curbing GHG emissions if their finance is linked to land policies. We suggest that integrated policy analysis is needed in the African context for simultaneously reaching progress in multiple SDGs.The authors thank Francesco Dalla Longa for his comments, and Brennan Bowman and Sebastien Huclin for their help with regard to data and methodology. This research is supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreements No. 642260 (TRANSrisk project) and No. 820846 (Paris Reinforce), and by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness MINECO through BC3 Maria de Maeztu excellence accreditation MDM-2017-0714. Dirk-Jan van de Ven and Jon Sampedro acknowledge financial support from the Ministry of the Economy and Competitiveness of Spain (ECO2015-68023). Jon Sampedro also acknowledges financial support from the Basque Government (PRE_2018_2_0076). Sha Yu was supported by the Global Technology Strategy Project (GTSP). The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone

Coupling circularity performance and climate action : from disciplinary silos to transdisciplinary modelling science

Technological breakthroughs and policy measures targeting energy efficiency and clean energy alone will not suffice to deliver Paris Agreement-compliant greenhouse gas emissions trajectories in the next decades. Strong cases have recently been made for acknowledging the decarbonisation potential lying in transforming linear economic models into closed-loop industrial ecosystems and in shifting lifestyle patterns towards this direction. This perspective highlights the research capacity needed to inform on the role and potential of the circular economy for climate change mitigation and to enhance the scientific capabilities to quantitatively explore their synergies and trade-offs. This begins with establishing conceptual and methodological bridges amongst the relevant and currently fragmented research communities, thereby allowing an interdisciplinary integration and assessment of circularity, decarbonisation, and sustainable development. Following similar calls for science in support of climate action, a transdisciplinary scientific agenda is needed to co-create the goals and scientific processes underpinning the transition pathways towards a circular, net-zero economy with representatives from policy, industry, and civil society. Here, it is argued that such integration of disciplines, methods, and communities can then lead to new and/or structurally enhanced quantitative systems models that better represent critical industrial value chains, consumption patterns, and mitigation technologies. This will be a crucial advancement towards assessing the material implications of, and the contribution of enhanced circularity performance to, mitigation pathways that are compatible with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and the transition to a circular economy

Boitier et al_2023_JOULE_DATASET

<p>This dataset contains the underlying raw modelling data for the journal article by Boitier et al., 2023 published in Joule in November 2023.</p&gt

An integrative paradigm in support of climate policy making

In pursuit of the drastic transformations necessary for effectively responding to climate change, the Paris Agreement stresses the need to design and implement sustainable, robust, and socially acceptable policy pathways in a globally coordinated and cooperative manner. For decades, the scientific community has been carrying out quantitative modelling exercises in support of climate policy design, primarily by means of climate-economy modelling tools. The aim of this dissertation is to describe in detail the context of these tools’ hitherto scientific contribution to policymaking, highlight the available means to formulate a new paradigm that overcomes existing and emerging challenges, select methodologies and develop a dedicated climate policy support toolbox in line with the proposed paradigm, and ultimately implement the toolbox in real-world case studies. In particular, individual modelling exercises alone are argued to widen the gap between formal representation and real-life context in which decisions are taken, and major criticisms to which formalised modelling frameworks are subject are investigated. The proposed paradigm introduces a concrete definition of risk and uncertainty in climate policy, and then underlines the importance of employing diverse modelling ensembles, placing the human factor at the core of modelling processes and enhancing the robustness of model-driven policy prescriptions with decision support systems. To lay the groundwork of this integrative scientific paradigm, an attempt is made to provide a detailed overview and consistent classification of scientists’ traditional tools in support of climate policy, i.e. climate-economy models. After exploring major weaknesses of the formalised modelling frameworks, three decision support methodologies are reviewed and selected to frame the proposed paradigm, based on their capacity to overcome said weaknesses and eventually enhance climate policy making processes. These include fuzzy cognitive maps, multiple-criteria decision aid, and portfolio analysis. Based on these findings, a dedicated toolbox is developed and discussed. The system mapping method is integrated with the systems of innovation framework and framed in the climate policy domain for the first time, and the MATISE software application is introduced for managing stakeholder knowledge for the evaluation of innovation systems in the face of climate change. The fuzzy cognitive mapping approach is formalised and modified to include the notion of time, and the developed ESQAPE software application introduces the new framework in energy and climate policy. Finally, a new Behavioural TOPSIS-oriented multi-criteria group decision making approach for evaluating climate policy risks is described and a dedicated tool, MACE-DSS, is developed and discussed in detail.The proposed scientific paradigm is then stress-tested in five real-world applications and settings of the dimensions comprising it: the developed methodological frameworks, climate-economy modelling ensembles, and stakeholder knowledge. The four case studies include the assessment of the impacts of risks associated with a solar-based energy transition in Greece, the identification of optimal technological portfolios for European power generation, the evaluation of the potential for decarbonising the Polish power sector, and the assessment of prospects for a green building sector in China. Finally, all aspects and methodologies comprising the proposed paradigm are integrated in an effort to determine the optimal policy mix for enhancing energy efficiency in Greece in the short term.Στο πλαίσιο των μετασχηματισμών που απαιτούνται για την αντιμετώπιση της κλιματικής αλλαγής, η Συμφωνία του Παρισιού τονίζει την ανάγκη σχεδιασμού και υλοποίησης παγκοσμίως συντονισμένων, βιώσιμων, εύρωστων και κοινωνικά αποδεκτών μονοπατιών πολιτικής. Επί δεκαετίες, η επιστημονική κοινότητα υποστήριζε την χάραξη κλιματικής πολιτικής κυρίως μέσω εργαλείων μοντελοποίησης κλίματος-οικονομίας. Σκοπός της διατριβής είναι η μελέτη της έως τώρα επιστημονικής συνεισφοράς τους στη χάραξη πολιτικής, η ανάδειξη των διαθέσιμων μέσων για τη διαμόρφωση ενός νέου υποδείγματος που ανταποκρίνεται στις υφιστάμενες και νέες προκλήσεις, η επιλογή μεθοδολογιών και ανάπτυξη μίας εργαλειοθήκης υποστήριξης αποφάσεων στην κατεύθυνση του προτεινόμενου υποδείγματος, και η εφαρμογή της σε πραγματικές μελέτες περίπτωσης.Συγκεκριμένα, υποστηρίζεται ότι οι διεργασίες μοντελοποίησης καθαυτές διευρύνουν το χάσμα μεταξύ επιστήμης και πολιτικής, και διερευνώνται οι κυρίαρχες επικρίσεις των τυποποιημένων πλαισίων μοντελοποίησης. Το προτεινόμενο υπόδειγμα ορίζει τις έννοιες του κινδύνου και της αβεβαιότητας στην κλιματική πολιτική, και τονίζει τη σημασία των ποικίλων μοντελικών συνόλων, του ανθρώπινου παράγοντα, και της ευρωστίας των τελικών συστάσεων πολιτικής. Για την κατασκευή αυτού του ολοκληρωμένου επιστημονικού υποδείγματος, αρχικά επιχειρείται η οργάνωση των μοντέλων κλίματος-οικονομίας. Στη συνέχεια, πραγματοποιείται βιβλιογραφική ανασκόπηση και επιλογή τριών μεθοδολογιών υποστήριξης αποφάσεων για την πλαισίωση του προτεινόμενου υποδείγματος, με κριτήριο τη δυνατότητά τους να αντιμετωπίσουν τις κύριες αδυναμίες των μοντέλων κλίματος-οικονομίας και να αναβαθμίσουν τις διεργασίες χάραξης κλιματικής πολιτικής. Αυτές περιλαμβάνουν τους ασαφείς γνωστικούς χάρτες, την πολυκριτήρια ανάλυση και την ανάλυση χαρτοφυλακίου.Έτσι, αναπτύσσεται και παρουσιάζεται μία εξειδικευμένη εργαλειοθήκη. Η χαρτογράφηση συστημάτων συνδυάζεται με το πλαίσιο των συστημάτων καινοτομίας και εισάγεται στον χώρο της κλιματικής πολιτικής, ενώ αναπτύσσεται το λογισμικό MATISE για τη διαχείριση της γνώσης εμπειρογνωμόνων. Η ασαφής γνωστική χαρτογράφηση τροποποιείται ώστε να ενσωματώνει την έννοια του χρόνου, και το εργαλείο ESQAPE εισάγει το νέο μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο στην ενεργειακή και κλιματική πολιτική. Τέλος, περιγράφεται μία νέα προσέγγιση πολυκριτήριας πολυμετοχικής ανάλυσης βασισμένης στην Behavioural TOPSIS και παρουσιάζεται λεπτομερώς ένα εξειδικευμένο εργαλείο, το MACE-DSS.Το προτεινόμενο επιστημονικό υπόδειγμα έπειτα δοκιμάζεται σε πέντε πραγματικές εφαρμογές και με διαφορετικές συνθέσεις των διαστάσεων που το απαρτίζουν: των αναπτυγμένων μεθοδολογικών πλαισίων και εργαλείων, των συνδυασμών μοντέλων κλίματος-οικονομίας, και της γνώσης των εμπειρογνωμόνων. Οι τέσσερις μελέτες περίπτωσης περιλαμβάνουν την αποτίμηση των επιδράσεων των κινδύνων μίας ενεργειακής μετάβασης στην Ελλάδα με βάση την ηλιακή ενέργεια, τον προσδιορισμό βέλτιστων τεχνολογιών στην ευρωπαϊκή ηλεκτροπαραγωγή, την αξιολόγηση των δυνατοτήτων απανθρακοποίησης του πολωνικού ενεργειακού τομέα, και τη μελέτη των προοπτικών για έναν πράσινο κτιριακό τομέα στην Κίνα. Τέλος, επιχειρείται μία συνολική εφαρμογή όλων των μεθοδολογιών και πτυχών του προτεινόμενου υποδείγματος, σε μία προσπάθεια προσδιορισμού του βέλτιστου μίγματος πολιτικής για την βελτιστοποίηση της ενεργειακής αποδοτικότητας στην Ελλάδα

Contested energy futures, conflicted rewards? Examining low-carbon transition risks and governance dynamics in China's built environment

China's urbanisation has caused city populations to grow rapidly, boosting continuous development and scaling up the construction industry more intensely. The building sector is thus a key area to consider for climate change mitigation efforts. This study initially seeks to explore the development of a green transition pathway for the Chinese building sector, informed by national and local low-carbon policies and strategies, with specific references to Beijing and Shanghai. Acknowledging that the barriers and impacts of these policies have not been explored in depth and in consideration of the multiplicity of stakeholder views, we then set out to collect stakeholders’ perspectives of implementation and consequential risks associated with the envisaged transition and with the policies aiming to promote this transition. These concerns are evaluated in a multiple-criteria group decision making approach. By focusing on the resulting most critical implementation barriers, we then outline five plausible socioeconomic scenarios, against which we simulate the impacts of the considered policy strategies on the low-carbon transition of the Chinese built environment as well the extent of their key possible negative consequences, by means of fuzzy cognitive maps.ISSN:2214-629

Effects of benchmarking on the quality of type 2 diabetes care: results of the OPTIMISE (Optimal Type 2 Diabetes Management Including Benchmarking and Standard Treatment) study in Greece

Objectives: To investigate the effect of benchmarking on the quality of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) care in Greece. Methods: The OPTIMISE (Optimal Type 2 Diabetes Management Including Benchmarking and Standard Treatment) study [ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00681850] was an international multicenter, prospective cohort study. It included physicians randomized 3:1 to either receive benchmarking for glycated hemoglobin (HbA 1c ), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) treatment targets (benchmarking group) or not (control group). The proportions of patients achieving the targets of the above-mentioned parameters were compared between groups after 12 months of treatment. Also, the proportions of patients achieving those targets at 12 months were compared with baseline in the benchmarking group. Results: In the Greek region, the OPTIMISE study included 797 adults with T2DM (570 in the benchmarking group). At month 12 the proportion of patients within the predefined targets for SBP and LDL-C was greater in the benchmarking compared with the control group (50.6 versus 35.8%, and 45.3 versus 36.1%, respectively). However, these differences were not statistically significant. No difference between groups was noted in the percentage of patients achieving the predefined target for HbA 1c . At month 12 the increase in the percentage of patients achieving all three targets was greater in the benchmarking (5.9–15.0%) than in the control group (2.7–8.1%). In the benchmarking group more patients were on target regarding SBP (50.6% versus 29.8%), LDL-C (45.3% versus 31.3%) and HbA 1c (63.8% versus 51.2%) at 12 months compared with baseline ( p < 0.001 for all comparisons). Conclusion: Benchmarking may comprise a promising tool for improving the quality of T2DM care. Nevertheless, target achievement rates of each, and of all three, quality indicators were suboptimal, indicating there are still unmet needs in the management of T2DM