Do loans harm? The Effect of IMF Programs on Inequality

IMF programs consist of granting loans, and of conditionality that countries have to follow in order to qualify for them. The paper uses a pooled time-series cross section analysis, covering 98 countries over the period 1970-2000 in order to find out which effect IMF programs have on the personal and wage income distribution of the grant receiving country. Similar to findings on growth (Dreher 2006), IMF programs have also a negative impact on income. This is due mainly to conditionality, whereas the amount of loans granted does not seem to harm.developing countries, inequality, pooled regression, IMF programs, loans and conditionality

Sectoral allocation and macroeconomic imbalances in EMU

We document how, over 1996–2008, large capital inflows in Southern Europe coincided with broad-based growth of the nontradable sector, extending beyond the construction and real estate sectors. We then present a tractable two-sector, two-region (‘North’ and ‘South’) model of a monetary union, in which we show how the sharp, permanent, fall in Southern real interest rates that occurred in the run-up to EMU can explain the Southern consumption boom, wage growth, growth of the nontradable sector, and deteriorating external position. Upward pressure on the EMU-wide interest rate induces an opposite process in North. Consequently, both real exchange rates and external positions of the two regions diverge. Including a third country with a flexible exchange rate vis-à-vis the euro amplifies the effects of monetary integration in South, while dampening them in North. We confirm the key model predictions using a panel-BVAR for the euro area and investigates various policy reforms to facilitate the ongoing rebalancing process in the eurozone

Limits on the ultra-bright Fast Radio Burst population from the CHIME Pathfinder

We present results from a new incoherent-beam Fast Radio Burst (FRB) search on the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME) Pathfinder. Its large instantaneous field of view (FoV) and relative thermal insensitivity allow us to probe the ultra-bright tail of the FRB distribution, and to test a recent claim that this distribution's slope, $\alpha\equiv-\frac{\partial \log N}{\partial \log S}$, is quite small. A 256-input incoherent beamformer was deployed on the CHIME Pathfinder for this purpose. If the FRB distribution were described by a single power-law with $\alpha=0.7$, we would expect an FRB detection every few days, making this the fastest survey on sky at present. We collected 1268 hours of data, amounting to one of the largest exposures of any FRB survey, with over 2.4\,$\times$\,10$^5$\,deg$^2$\,hrs. Having seen no bursts, we have constrained the rate of extremely bright events to $<\!13$\,sky$^{-1}$\,day$^{-1}$ above $\sim$\,220$\sqrt{(\tau/\rm ms)}$ Jy\,ms for $\tau$ between 1.3 and 100\,ms, at 400--800\,MHz. The non-detection also allows us to rule out $\alpha\lesssim0.9$ with 95$\%$ confidence, after marginalizing over uncertainties in the GBT rate at 700--900\,MHz, though we show that for a cosmological population and a large dynamic range in flux density, $\alpha$ is brightness-dependent. Since FRBs now extend to large enough distances that non-Euclidean effects are significant, there is still expected to be a dearth of faint events and relative excess of bright events. Nevertheless we have constrained the allowed number of ultra-intense FRBs. While this does not have significant implications for deeper, large-FoV surveys like full CHIME and APERTIF, it does have important consequences for other wide-field, small dish experiments

Hypermutation of Immunoglobulin Genes in Memory B Cells of DNA Repair–deficient Mice

To investigate the possible involvement of DNA repair in the process of somatic hypermutation of rearranged immunoglobulin variable (V) region genes, we have analyzed the occurrence, frequency, distribution, and pattern of mutations in rearranged Vλ1 light chain genes from naive and memory B cells in DNA repair–deficient mutant mouse strains. Hypermutation was found unaffected in mice carrying mutations in either of the following DNA repair genes: xeroderma pigmentosum complementation group (XP)A and XPD, Cockayne syndrome complementation group B (CSB), mutS homologue 2 (MSH2), radiation sensitivity 54 (RAD54), poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP), and 3-alkyladenine DNA-glycosylase (AAG). These results indicate that both subpathways of nucleotide excision repair, global genome repair, and transcription-coupled repair are not required for somatic hypermutation. This appears also to be true for mismatch repair, RAD54-dependent double-strand–break repair, and AAG-mediated base excision repair

European Respiratory Society Statement on Thoracic Ultrasound

Thoracic ultrasound is increasingly considered to be an essential tool for the pulmonologist. It is used in diverse clinical scenarios, including as an adjunct to clinical decision making for diagnosis, a real-time guide to procedures, and a predictor or measurement of treatment response. The aim of this European Respiratory Society task force was to produce a statement on thoracic ultrasound for pulmonologists using thoracic ultrasound within the field of respiratory medicine. The multidisciplinary panel performed a review of the literature, addressing major areas of thoracic ultrasound practice and application. The selected major areas include equipment and technique, assessment of the chest wall, parietal pleura, pleural effusion, pneumothorax, interstitial syndrome, lung consolidation, diaphragm assessment, intervention guidance, training, and the patient perspective. Despite the growing evidence supporting the use of thoracic ultrasound, the published literature still contains a paucity of data in some important fields. Key research questions for each of the major areas were identified, which serve to facilitate future multi-centre collaborations and research to further consolidate an evidence-based use of thoracic ultrasound, for the benefit of the many patients being exposed to clinicians using thoracic ultrasound

Investigation of the Climatic and Environmental Context of Hendra Virus Spillover Events 1994–2010

Hendra virus is a recently emerged bat-borne zoonotic agent with high lethality in horses and humans in Australia. This is a rare disease and the determinants of bat to horse transmission, including the factors that bring these hosts together at critical times, are poorly understood. In this cross-disciplinary study climatic and vegetation primary productivity variables are compared for the dispersed and heterogenic 1994–2010 outbreak sites. The significant occurrence of spillover events within the dry season (p =  0.013, 95% CI (0.57–0.98)) suggests seasonal forcing of transmission across species, or seasonal forcing of virus excretion by the reservoir host. We explore the evidence for both. Preliminary investigations of the spatial determinants of Hendra disease locations are also presented. We find that postal areas in the Australian state of Queensland in which pteropid fruit bat (flying fox) roosts occur are approximately forty times more likely (OR = 40.5, (95% CI (5.16, 317.52)) to be the location of Hendra spillover events. This appears to be independent of density of horses at these locations. We consider issues of scale of host resource use, land use change and limitations of existing data that challenge analysis and limit further conclusive outcomes. This investigation of a broad range of potential climatic and environmental influences provides a good base for future investigations. Further understanding of cross-species Hendra virus transmission requires better understanding of flying fox resource use in the urban-rural landscape

Challenges to science and society in the sustainable management and use of water: investigating the role of social learning

Water catchments are characterised by connectedness, complexity, uncertainty, conflict, multiple stakeholders and thus, multiple perspectives. Catchments are thus unknowable in objective terms although this understanding does not currently form the dominant paradigm for environmental management and policy development. In situations of this type it is no longer possible to rely only on scientific knowledge for management and policy prescriptions. 'Social learning', which is built on different paradigmatic and epistemological assumptions, offers managers and policy makers alternative and complementary possibilities. Social learning is central to non-coercion. It is gaining recognition as a potential governance or coordination mechanism in complex natural resource situations such as the fulfilment of the European Water Framework Directive, but its underlying assumptions and successful conduct need to be much better understood. SLIM (social learning for the integrated management and sustainable use of water at catchment scale), a European Union, Fifth Framework project assembled a multidisciplinary group of researchers to research social learning in catchments of different type, scale, and socio-economic situation. Social tools and methods were developed from this research which also employed a novel approach to project management. In this introductory paper the rationale for the project, the project design intentions and realisations, and the case for researching social learning in contexts such as water catchments are described. Some challenges presented by a social learning approach for science (as a form of practice) and society in the sustainable management and use of water are raised

Genetic Diversity among Ancient Nordic Populations

Using established criteria for work with fossil DNA we have analysed mitochondrial DNA from 92 individuals from 18 locations in Denmark ranging in time from the Mesolithic to the Medieval Age. Unequivocal assignment of mtDNA haplotypes was possible for 56 of the ancient individuals; however, the success rate varied substantially between sites; the highest rates were obtained with untouched, freshly excavated material, whereas heavy handling, archeological preservation and storage for many years influenced the ability to obtain authentic endogenic DNA. While the nucleotide diversity at two locations was similar to that among extant Danes, the diversity at four sites was considerably higher. This supports previous observations for ancient Britons. The overall occurrence of haplogroups did not deviate from extant Scandinavians, however, haplogroup I was significantly more frequent among the ancient Danes (average 13%) than among extant Danes and Scandinavians (∼2.5%) as well as among other ancient population samples reported. Haplogroup I could therefore have been an ancient Southern Scandinavian type “diluted” by later immigration events. Interestingly, the two Neolithic samples (4,200 YBP, Bell Beaker culture) that were typed were haplogroup U4 and U5a, respectively, and the single Bronze Age sample (3,300–3,500 YBP) was haplogroup U4. These two haplogroups have been associated with the Mesolithic populations of Central and Northern Europe. Therefore, at least for Southern Scandinavia, our findings do not support a possible replacement of a haplogroup U dominated hunter-gatherer population by a more haplogroup diverse Neolithic Culture

The Amsterdam Studies of Acute Psychiatry I (ASAP-I); A prospective cohort study of determinants and outcome of coercive versus voluntary treatment interventions in a metropolitan area

Background The overall number of involuntary admissions is increasing in many European countries. Patients with severe mental illnesses more often progress to stages in which acute, coercive treatment is warranted. The number of studies that have examined this development and possible consequences in terms of optimizing health care delivery in emergency psychiatry is small and have a number of methodological shortcomings. The current study seeks to examine factors associated with compulsory admissions in the Amsterdam region, taking into account a comprehensive model with four groups of predictors: patient vulnerability, social support, responsiveness of the health care system and treatment adherence. Methods/Design This paper describes the design of the Amsterdam Study of Acute Psychiatry-I (ASAP-I). The study is a prospective cohort study, with one and two-year follow-up, comparing patients with and without forced admission by means of a selected nested case-control design. An estimated total number of 4,600 patients, aged 18 years and over, consecutively coming into contact with the Psychiatric Emergency Service Amsterdam (PESA) are included in the study. From this cohort, a randomly selected group of 125 involuntary admitted subjects and 125 subjects receiving non-coercive treatment are selected for further evaluation and comparison. First, socio-demographic, psychopathological and network characteristics, and prior use of health services will be described for all patients who come into contact with PESA. Second, the in-depth study of compulsory versus voluntary patients will examine which patient characteristics are associated with acute compulsory admission, also taking into account social network and healthcare variables. The third focus of the study is on the associations between patient vulnerability, social support, healthcare characteristics and treatment adherence in a two-year follow-up for patients with or without involuntarily admittance at the index consultation. Discussion The current study seeks to establish a picture of the determinants of acute compulsory admissions in the Netherlands and tries to gain a better understanding of the association with the course of illness and patient's perception of services and treatment adherence. The final aim is to find specific patient and health care factors that can be influenced by adjusting treatment programs in order to reduce the number of involuntary admissions