Canada and Associate Membership in the Pacific Alliance: An Important Part of a Global Trade Strategy

There has been considerable coverage lately of Canada’s ongoing efforts to secure preferential access to overseas markets in Asia, while trying to save NAFTA and promote its “progressive” trade agenda. The “progressive” trade agenda hit a few recent road bumps, first in Vietnam in November when a planned announcement of an “agreement in principle” on the “TPP 11 Agreement” was postponed at the last minute, and in December in Beijing when Chinese authorities balked at including additional “progressive” chapters in a free trade agreement, the negotiation of which many expected would be announced during Mr. Trudeau’s visit. Although a breakthrough on the TPP11, now known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, was announced on January 23, NAFTA negotiations continue to be difficult. One area that has been overlooked in all the coverage of recent events, and which holds potential for advancing Canadian trade interests in both Latin America and the Asia Pacific, is the Pacific Alliance and Canada’s pursuit of associate member status. The PA trade pact, comprising Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, is currently in the process of discussing with several countries, including Canada, the possibility of becoming “associate members.” Associate member status is novel, thus it is not clear what precisely it will entail or when it will come into effect. However, the possibility of Canada moving from its current "observer" status to becoming a more active part of the PA (or possibly an expanded version of the Alliance), offers significant benefit for Canada. For all the focus on the TPP and the NAFTA renegotiations, not to mention Canada’s recently concluded economic partnership agreement with the EU and potential free-trade negotiations with China, very little attention has been paid in Canada to the developments with the PA. And yet, this is one trade bloc that holds some of the greatest promise for Canada. All four founding countries are historic allies of Canada with likeminded systems of values of trade openness. Canada already enjoys strong bilateral relations with each of the PA members, but a multilateral agreement could offer Canada far more in terms of market integration. The PA also happens to offer Canadian exporters a very attractive market, with a population of 219 million, a very young average age (29.8 years) and a GDP per capita, at US$17,500, higher than that of China’s US$14,600. The PA nations are all also ranked among the most hospitable places to do business in South America. Meanwhile, as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) involving 16 Asia Pacific nations moves closer to reality, there are suggestions that it could someday merge with the PA, possibly opening the door for Canada to yet more opportunity comprising half the world’s population and 40 per cent of its GDP. First Canada has to make the most of its opportunity to become an associate member of the PA. With the NAFTA negotiation crisis occupying so much bandwidth in Ottawa, there is a risk that the PA opportunity might not get the attention it deserves. Canadians should hope that it does. Because if NAFTA ends up failing, the PA could provide some of the new trade opportunities Canada will desperately need

Analysing credit risk in large local governments: an empirical study in Spain

In governments throughout the world, bank lending excesses, solvency issues and worsening credit ratings have all contributed to raising risk premiums and impeding access to credit, thus provoking a major financial problem in the public sector. Accordingly, tax authorities and regulators need to analyse the causes of public sector bank debt, doing so through the joint study of idiosyncratic and systematic variables, an area that has been neglected in previous research. This paper examines idiosyncratic and systematic factors that may influence local government credit risk through an empirical study of the performance of 148 large Spanish municipalities during 2006–2011. We identify individual factors relevant to the probability of local government default (such as dependent population, per capita income and debt composition) and also determinants associated with macroeconomic developments, such as gross domestic product and the risk premium

Analyzing political and systemic determinants of financial risk in local governments

Studies have shown that political variables can infl uence the volume of government debt and have recommended investigating the joint effects of diverse factors on the risk of local government default. Considering the relation between economic management and political constraints, this paper examines the joint infl uence of political and systemic factors on the risk of loan default by Spanish local governments. To do so, we analyze 148 city councils for the period 2006-2011, using a logit model with panel data and an artifi cial neural network. The empirical results indicate that the fi nancial risk of local governments is affected both by political factors specifi c to each case and, simultaneously, by systemic variables for the country. Specifi cally, political variables such as the mayor not having economics-related university studies, the under-representation of female councilors in the municipal corporation, municipal government by a party with a progressive ideology, and ideological alignment between the municipal and the regional government are all associated with greater fi nancial risk. Moreover, rising national unemployment, an increased sovereign risk premium, the impact of the electoral cycle, and that of declining economic growth are all factors that may increase the risk of default. The fi ndings presented are of great potential interest for governments, managers, national and international fi scal authorities, fi nancial regulators, and citizens at large, because an understanding of the signifi cance of these variables can help authorities make appropriate decisions to prevent and/or overcome problems related to municipal insolvency

The weather behind words – new methodologies for integrated hydrometeorological reconstruction through documentary sources

Historical climatology has remarkable potentialities to produce climatic reconstructions with high temporal resolution. However, some methodological limitations hinder the spatial development of this discipline. This study presents a new approach to historical climatology that overcomes some of the limitations of classical approaches, such as the rogation method or content analysis: the Cost Opportunity for Small Towns (COST). It analyses historic documents and takes advantage of all sorts of meteorological information available in written documents, and not only the severest events, to therefore overcome the most prominent bottlenecks of former approaches. COST relies on the fact that using paper is very costly, so its use to describe meteorological conditions is hypothesised as being proportional to the impact they had on society. To prove the validity of this approach to reconstruct climate conditions, this article exemplarily uses the Municipal Chapter Acts of a small town in southern Spain (Caravaca de la Cruz), which span the 1600–1900 period, and allows reconstructions to be obtained on a monthly basis. Using the same documentary source, the three approaches were used to derive respective climate reconstructions, which were then compared to assess climate signal consistency and to identify possible caveats in the methods. The three approaches led to a generally coherent series of secular variability in the hydrological conditions, which agrees well with previous study results. The COST approach is arguably more objective and less affected by changes in societal behaviour, which allows it to perform comparative studies in regions with different languages and traditions.This research was supported by the Umulink project funded by the Seneca Foundation (ref. 20640/JLI/18) and the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (“Juan de la Cierva-Incorporación”, grant nos. IJCI-2016-29016, IJCI-2015-26914)

Investor behavior and the demand for conventional and socially responsible mutual funds

This study analyzes the demand for conventional and socially responsible (SR) mutual funds using cash flow data from a large sample of U.S. equity funds. For both types of funds, previous results have a positive impact on inflows. However, redemptions' behavior differs. Outflows correlate negatively with past results in conventional portfolios, whereas this relationship is positive for SR funds: investors are more likely to redeem shares in the best-performing funds while holding funds that performed poorly. This behavior is compatible with a disposition effect in SR funds. These results hold even after controlling for other variables driving mutual fund demand. Hence, inflows and outflows of conventional funds were found to be positively related to past idiosyncratic risk, expenses and turnover, but negatively related to size and age. For SR funds, these relationships are stronger for size and idiosyncratic risk, and take the opposite sign for age, expenses and turnover.Funding for open access charge: CRUE-Universitat Jaume

Statistical model for mobile user positioning based on social information.

In spite of the vast set of measurements provided by current mobile networks, cellular operators have problems to pinpoint problematic locations because the origin of such measurements (i.e., user location) is usually not registered. At the same time, social networks generate a huge amount of data that can be used to infer population density. In this work, a data-driven model is proposed to deduce the statistical distribution of connections, exploiting the knowledge of network layout and population density in the sceario. Due to the absence of GPS measurements, the proposed method combines data from radio connection traces stored in the network management system and geolocated posts from social networks. This information is enriched with user context information inferred from their traffic attributes. The method is tested with a large trace dataset from a live Long Term Evolution (LTE) network and a database of geotagged messages from two social networks (Twitter and Flickr).Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Mesa redonda sobre herramientas en Bioinformática

Comunicaciones a congreso

A space-time model for analyzing contagious people based on geolocation data using inverse graphs

Los dispositivos móviles nos proporcionan una importante fuente de datos que capturan los movimientos espaciales de los individuos y nos permiten derivar patrones generales de movilidad para una población a lo largo del tiempo. En este artículo, presentamos una base matemática que nos permite armonizar datos de geolocalización móvil utilizando geometría diferencial y teoría de grafos para identificar patrones de comportamiento espacial. En particular, nos centramos en modelos programados utilizando Sistemas de Álgebra Informática y basados en un modelo espacio-temporal que permite describir los patrones de contagio a través de patrones de movimiento espacial. Además, mostramos cómo se puede utilizar el enfoque para desarrollar algoritmos para encontrar el "paciente cero" o, respectivamente, para identificar la selección de candidatos que tienen más probabilidades de ser contagiosos

Synthesis, properties, and some rhodium, iridium, and platinum complexes of a series of bulky m-terphenylphosphine ligands

A series of sterically demanding aryl phosphine ligands (L) bearing terphenyl substituents, PR2Ar′ (R = hydrocarbyl, Ar′ = 2,6-diarylphenyl radical) has been prepared and characterized. The stability of these ligands towards oxidation in the air has been tested, and theoretical and experimental studies aimed to provide information on their electronic and steric properties have been performed. Treatment of the metal dimers [MCl(COD)]2(M = Rh, Ir; COD = 1,5-cyclooctadiene) with ligands PMe2ArXyl2(L1) and PMe2ArDipp2(L5), in a 1:1 metal:ligand ratio, afforded the expected square-planar 16-electron complexes [MCl(COD)(PMe2ArXyl2)] and [MCl(COD)(PMe2ArDipp2)], respectively. These compounds were readily converted into the corresponding dicarbonyl derivatives, [MCl(CO)2(PMe2ArXyl2)] and [MCl(CO)2(PMe2ArDipp2)], respectively. While the expected κ1-P coordination mode of the PR2Ar′ ligands is found for these rhodium and iridium species, the mononuclear Pt(II) derivative obtained by reaction of PtCl2with PMe2ArDipp2has composition [PtCl2(PMe2ArDipp2)], and exhibits a bidentate κ1-P, η1-arene coordination mode involving one of the ipso carbon atoms of a flanking terphenyl aryl ring. The corresponding carbonyl compound [PtCl2(CO)(PMe2ArDipp2)], was generated under a CO atmosphere and exhibits κ1-P coordination mode.Ministerio de Ciencia CTQ2013-42501-P, CTQ2014-51912-REDC, CTQ-2014-52769-C3-3-RJunta de Andalucía FQM-119 P09-FQM-4832, FQM-2126European Union 26722

Small bowel obstruction due to laparoscopic barbed sutures: An unknown complication?

Background: In recent years there has been an increasing uptake in the use of barbed sutures, particularly in minimally invasive and laparoscopic procedures where they may reduce operating time and improve surgical efficiency. However, little is known about the adverse events associated with these new materials and concerns have arisen regarding their safety in certain procedures. Methods: We performed a search of electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Database). We reveal up to 15 cases of small bowel obstruction (SBO) complicating laparoscopic pelvic surgery that have been reported to date adding two cases of SBO in our own practice following the use of barbed sutures in laparoscopic operations, both requiring surgical re-intervention in the early post-operative period. Results: Fifteen similar cases of small bowel obstruction were identified, all of which occurred in patients undergoing surgery below the transverse colon. Surgical re-intervention was required in all cases although 60% of these were performed laparoscopically. Conclusions: These cases highlight that although barbed sutures provide an attractive means to allow easier and faster laparoscopic suturing, they should be used carefully in inframesocolic surgery and the suture end cut and buried to avoid inadvertent attachment to the small bowel or its mesentery. Barbed suture entanglement should be considered as an uncommon yet potentially serious differential cause for SBO presenting in the early period after laparoscopic surgery where a barbed suture has been used