Temporal patterns of active fire density and its relationship with a satellite fuel greenness index by vegetation type and region in Mexico during 2003-2014

Background: Understanding the temporal patterns of fire occurrence and their relationships with fuel dryness is key to sound fire management, especially under increasing global warming. At present, no system for prediction of fire occurrence risk based on fuel dryness conditions is available in Mexico. As part of an ongoing national-scale project, we developed an operational fire risk mapping tool based on satellite and weather information. Results: We demonstrated how differing monthly temporal trends in a fuel greenness index, dead ratio (DR), and fire density (FDI) can be clearly differentiated by vegetation type and region for the whole country, using MODIS satellite observations for the period 2003 to 2014. We tested linear and non-linear models, including temporal autocorrelation terms, for prediction of FDI from DR for a total of 28 combinations of vegetation types and regions. In addition, we developed seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for forecasting DR values based on the last observed values. Most ARIMA models showed values of the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2 adj) above 0.7 to 0.8, suggesting potential to forecast fuel dryness and fire occurrence risk conditions. The best fitted models explained more than 70% of the observed FDI variation in the relation between monthly DR and fire density. Conclusion: These results suggest that there is potential for the DR index to be incorporated in future fire risk operational tools. However, some vegetation types and regions show lower correlations between DR and observed fire density, suggesting that other variables, such as distance and timing of agricultural burn, deserve attention in future studiesAntecedentes: Una adecuada planificación del manejo del fuego requiere de la comprensión de los patrones temporales de humedad del combustible y su influencia en el riesgo de incendio, particularmente bajo un escenario de calentamiento global. En la actualidad en México no existe ningún sistema operacional para la predicción del riesgo de incendio en base al grado de estrés hídrico de los combustibles. Un proyecto de investigación nacional actualmente en funcionamiento, tiene como objetivo el desarrollo de un sistema operacional de riesgo y peligro de incendio en base a información meteorológica y de satélite para México. Este estudio pertenece al citado proyecto Resultados: Se observaron en el país distintas tendencias temporales en un índice de estrés hídrico de los combustibles basado en imágenes MODIS, el índice “dead ratio” (DR), y en las tendencias temporales de un ìndice de densidad de incendios (FDI), en distintos tipos de vegetación y regiones del país. Se evaluaron varios modelos lineales y potenciales, incluyendo términos para la consideración de la autocorrelación temporal, para la predicción de la densidad de incendios a partir del índice DR para un total de 28 tipos de vegetación y regiones. Se desarrollaron además modelos estacionales autoregresivos de media móvil (ARIMA en inglés) para el pronóstico del índice DR a partir de los últimos valores observados. La mayoría de los modelos ARIMA desarrollados mostraron valores del coeficiente de determinación ajustado (R2 adj) por encima de 0.7 to 0.8, sugiriendo potencial para ser empleados para un pronóstico del estrés hídrico de los combustibles y las condiciones de riesgo de ocurrencia de incendio. Con respecto a los modelos que relacionan los valores mensuales de DR con FDI, la mayoría de ellos explicaron más del 70% de la variabilidad observada en FDI. Conclusiones: Los resultados sugirieron potencial del índice DR para ser incluido en futuras herramientas operacionales para determinar el riesgo de incendio. En algunos tipos de vegetación y regiones se obtuvieron correlaciones más reducidas entre el índice DR y los valores observados de densidad de incendios, sugiriendo que el papel de otras variables tales como la distancia y el patrón temporal de quemas agrícolas debería ser explorado en futuros estudiosFunding for this work was provided by CONAFOR-CONACYT Project 252620 “Development of a Fire Danger System for Mexico.” This work was also cofinanced by the Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria and European Social Fund (Dr. E. Jiménez grant)S

Planeación, gobernanza y sustentabilidad Retos y desafíos desde el enfoque territorial

Frente a la compleja realidad actual, resulta ineludible el desarrollo de la investigación científica de los fenómenos y procesos urbanos, territoriales y ambientales, que contribuya a su comprensión y la construcción de alternativas de solución a los retos y desafíos vigentes. En este contexto, el abordaje de las ciudades y regiones metropolitanas, el ordenamiento del territorio y la ocupación del espacio, así como la relación sociedad-naturaleza y la complejidad ambiental, precisa la generación de metodologías y procesos de investigación multi e inter disciplinarios que contribuyan a la comprensión de los procesos socioterritoriales, el mejoramiento de las condiciones de vida y la conservación ambiental.Programa de Fortalecimiento de la Calidad Educativa PFCE-2016 proyecto K0313101

Una perspectiva multidisciplinaria

Derivado de la necesidad de fomentar la investigación multidisciplinaria, la Facultad de Economía de la Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México llevó a cabo los días 8 y 9 de septiembre de 2016, el VIII Coloquio de Investigación intitulado “Desarrollo económico, regional y sustentable”. En este magno evento se presentaron 36 ponencias agrupadas en cinco mesas de trabajo: sectores productivos, crecimiento económico y mercado de trabajo; tecnología, innovación y organizaciones; desigualdad regional, pobreza y migración; economía financiera e internacional; y medio ambiente y sociedad. Del material expuesto en el VIII Coloquio, se eligieron 16 investigaciones, mismas que integran este libro. Los estudios presentados en cada uno de los subsiguientes capítulos fueron seleccionados de acuerdo a un proceso de rigurosidad científica, siendo sometidos a dictamen por pares ciegos a partir de la integración de un Comité Académico de expertos. Lo anterior con la finalidad de proporcionar al lector un material de investigación de calidad y solidez científica respecto a temas de trascendencia vinculados con los sectores productivos, la innovación, las organizaciones, la responsabilidad social, la desigualdad, la educación y el medioambiente.Consecuencia de la apertura de los mercados y los preceptos competitivos dictados por la globalización, se manifiesta la necesidad de vincular los diversos saberes provenientes de las ciencias naturales y sociales, con el fin de complementar el conocimiento y generar nuevas formas de visualizar el entorno. A raíz de ello, la investigación multidisciplinaria asume un papel cada vez más importante en los círculos académicos, empresariales y gubernamentales. En este marco, entra en desuso la visualización del individuo como un sujeto atomístico desvinculado del medio ambiente que le rodea. El objetivo de este libro es otorgar una visión multidisciplinaria al estudio de temas económicos incorporando visiones teóricas y empíricas procedentes de las ciencias sociales y naturales. La obra está compuesta por 16 capítulos agrupados en cuatro secciones. La primera parte, conglomera cinco capítulos en torno a los tópicos sectores productivos y crecimiento económico.Facultad de Economía. Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Méxic

Maternal dietary patterns and acute leukemia in infants: results from a case control study in Mexico

BackgroundChildhood cancer is the leading cause of disease-related mortality among children aged 5–14 years in Mexico, with acute leukemia being the most common cancer among infants. Examining the overall dietary patterns allows for a comprehensive assessment of food and nutrient consumption, providing a more predictive measure of disease risk than individual foods or nutrients. This study aims to evaluate the association between maternal dietary patterns during pregnancy and the risk of acute leukemia in Mexican infants.MethodsA hospital-based case–control study was conducted, comparing 109 confirmed acute leukemia cases with 152 age-matched controls. All participants (≤24 months) were identified at hospitals in Mexico City between 2010 and 2019. Data on a posteriori dietary patterns and other relevant variables were collected through structured interviews and dietary questionnaires. Multivariate logistic regression was employed to estimate the association between maternal dietary patterns during pregnancy and the risk of acute leukemia in infants.ResultsThe “Balanced & Vegetable-Rich” pattern, characterized by a balanced consumption of various food groups and higher vegetable intake, exhibited a negative association with acute leukemia when compared to the “High Dairy & Cereals” Pattern (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.29, 0.90). We observed that mothers who gave birth to girls and adhered to a healthy dietary pattern during pregnancy exhibited significantly lower odds of their children developing AL compared to those who gave birth to boys [OR = 0.32 (95% CI 0.11, 0.97)]. Our results underscore the significance of maternal nutrition as a modifiable factor in disease prevention and the importance of prenatal health education

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species$^{1,2}$. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies$^{3,4}$. Here, leveraging global tree databases$^{5,6,7}$, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions

The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling

The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit.

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions.

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions