Comparison of high‐speed transportation systems in special consideration of investment costs

In this paper a substantial comparison of different high‐speed transportation systems and an approach to stochastic cost estimations are provided. Starting from the developments in Europe, the high‐speed traffic technical characteristics of high‐speed railways and Maglev systems are compared. But for a comprehensive comparison more criterions must be included and led to a wider consideration and the development of a multi‐criteria comparison of high‐speed transportation systems. In the second part a stochastic approach to cost estimations of infrastructure projects is encouraged. Its advantages in comparison with the traditional proceeding are presented and exemplify the practical implementation. First Published Online: 27 Oct 201

Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea

Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their uncertainties is assessed. The identification and reduction of uncertainties of scenario simulations are issues for marine management. For instance, it is important to know whether nutrient load abatement will meet its objectives of restored water quality status in future climate or whether additional measures are required. However, uncertainties are large and their sources need to be understood to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of measures. The assessment of sources of uncertainties in projections of biogeochemical cycles based on authors' own expert judgment suggests that the biggest uncertainties are caused by (1) unknown current and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere, (2) the experimental setup (including the spin up strategy), (3) differences between the projections of global and regional climate models, in particular, with respect to the global mean sea level rise and regional water cycle, (4) differing model-specific responses of the simulated biogeochemical cycles to long-term changes in external nutrient loads and climate of the Baltic Sea region, and (5) unknown future greenhouse gas emissions. Regular assessments of the models' skill (or quality compared to observations) for the Baltic Sea region and the spread in scenario simulations (differences among projected changes) as well as improvement of dynamical downscaling methods are recommended.Peer reviewe

Observation of High-Energy Astrophysical Neutrinos in Three Years of IceCube Data

A search for high-energy neutrinos interacting within the IceCube detector between 2010 and 2012 provided the first evidence for a high-energy neutrino flux of extraterrestrial origin. Results from an analysis using the same methods with a third year (2012-2013) of data from the complete IceCube detector are consistent with the previously reported astrophysical flux in the 100 TeV - PeV range at the level of $10^{-8}\, \mathrm{GeV}\, \mathrm{cm}^{-2}\, \mathrm{s}^{-1}\, \mathrm{sr}^{-1}$ per flavor and reject a purely atmospheric explanation for the combined 3-year data at $5.7 \sigma$. The data are consistent with expectations for equal fluxes of all three neutrino flavors and with isotropic arrival directions, suggesting either numerous or spatially extended sources. The three-year dataset, with a livetime of 988 days, contains a total of 37 neutrino candidate events with deposited energies ranging from 30 to 2000 TeV. The 2000 TeV event is the highest-energy neutrino interaction ever observed.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures. Accepted by PRL. The event catalog, event displays, and other data tables are included after the final page of the article. Changed from the initial submission to reflect referee comments, expanding the section on atmospheric backgrounds, and fixes offsets of up to 0.9 seconds in reported event times. Address correspondence to: J. Feintzeig, C. Kopper, N. Whitehor

Differential limit on the extremely-high-energy cosmic neutrino flux in the presence of astrophysical background from nine years of IceCube data

We report a quasi-differential upper limit on the extremely-high-energy (EHE) neutrino flux above $5\times 10^{6}$ GeV based on an analysis of nine years of IceCube data. The astrophysical neutrino flux measured by IceCube extends to PeV energies, and it is a background flux when searching for an independent signal flux at higher energies, such as the cosmogenic neutrino signal. We have developed a new method to place robust limits on the EHE neutrino flux in the presence of an astrophysical background, whose spectrum has yet to be understood with high precision at PeV energies. A distinct event with a deposited energy above $10^{6}$ GeV was found in the new two-year sample, in addition to the one event previously found in the seven-year EHE neutrino search. These two events represent a neutrino flux that is incompatible with predictions for a cosmogenic neutrino flux and are considered to be an astrophysical background in the current study. The obtained limit is the most stringent to date in the energy range between $5 \times 10^{6}$ and $5 \times 10^{10}$ GeV. This result constrains neutrino models predicting a three-flavor neutrino flux of $E_\nu^2\phi_{\nu_e+\nu_\mu+\nu_\tau}\simeq2\times 10^{-8}\ {\rm GeV}/{\rm cm}^2\ \sec\ {\rm sr}$at$10^9\ {\rm GeV}$. A significant part of the parameter-space for EHE neutrino production scenarios assuming a proton-dominated composition of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays is excluded.Comment: The version accepted for publication in Physical Review

Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: a CORDEX‐based study

Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands and pastures exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981–2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs: 1.5°C to 4°C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the SSP3 at GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (versus 1981–2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 at GWL4, approximately 2 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of forests and croplands (respectively, 6% and 11%) and 1.5 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI this extent will rise to 17 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of forests (49%), 6 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of pastures (78%) and 12 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of croplands (67%), being mid-latitudes the most affected. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change

Investigation of two Fermi-LAT gamma-ray blazars coincident with high-energy neutrinos detected by IceCube

After the identification of the gamma-ray blazar TXS 0506+056 as the first compelling IceCube neutrino source candidate, we perform a systematic analysis of all high-energy neutrino events satisfying the IceCube realtime trigger criteria. We find one additional known gamma-ray source, the blazar GB6 J1040+0617, in spatial coincidence with a neutrino in this sample. The chance probability of this coincidence is 30% after trial correction. For the first time, we present a systematic study of the gamma-ray flux, spectral and optical variability, and multi-wavelength behavior of GB6 J1040+0617 and compare it to TXS 0506+056. We find that TXS 0506+056 shows strong flux variability in the Fermi-LAT gamma-ray band, being in an active state around the arrival of IceCube-170922A, but in a low state during the archival IceCube neutrino flare in 2014/15. In both cases the spectral shape is statistically compatible ($\leq 2\sigma$) with the average spectrum showing no indication of a significant relative increase of a high-energy component. While the association of GB6 J1040+0617 with the neutrino is consistent with background expectations, the source appears to be a plausible neutrino source candidate based on its energetics and multi-wavelength features, namely a bright optical flare and modestly increased gamma-ray activity. Finding one or two neutrinos originating from gamma-ray blazars in the given sample of high-energy neutrinos is consistent with previously derived limits of neutrino emission from gamma-ray blazars, indicating the sources of the majority of cosmic high-energy neutrinos remain unknown.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, 2 Table

Multi-messenger searches via IceCube’s high-energy neutrinos and gravitational-wave detections of LIGO/Virgo

We summarize initial results for high-energy neutrino counterpart searches coinciding with gravitational-wave events in LIGO/Virgo\u27s GWTC-2 catalog using IceCube\u27s neutrino triggers. We did not find any statistically significant high-energy neutrino counterpart and derived upper limits on the time-integrated neutrino emission on Earth as well as the isotropic equivalent energy emitted in high-energy neutrinos for each event