17 research outputs found

    Re-assessing Rwanda’s Exchange Rate and External Sector Competitiveness

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    This paper re-assesses Rwanda’s real exchange rate and external sector competitiveness using three complementaryapproaches proposed by the IMF’s consultative group on exchange rate issues (CGER). We use quarterly data, coveringthe period 2000Q1-2020Q4 and 5-year period medium term projections. In terms of estimation strategy, we employ atriangulation of methods, including ordinary least squares (OLS) to estimate current account determination model andthe estimation of trade semi-elasticities and for the reduced form equilibrium exchange rate (ERER) model, particularlythe behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model, we use dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) along with itscomplementary estimators such as fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and Canonical cointegration regression(CCR) as robustness checks. For the external sustainability (ES) model, we rely on trade elasticities obtained from thefirst model together with a few assumptions relating to economy’s potential growth rate and inflation rate. The resultsindicate that the current account and the RER are influenced by economic fundamentals. The estimated exchange ratemisalignment levels from the three approaches point to the same direction. The current research obtains an averageexchange rate gap for the three models of 13.4 percent, implying that Rwandan currency is overvalued in real effectiveterms by 13.4 percent, pointing to adverse effects on the external competitiveness. The important policy implicationsarising out of these empirical findings include maintaining exchange rate flexibility to cushion adverse external shocks,but also effective monitoring of exchange rate developments remains vital to avoid higher levels of volatility which couldlead to poor performance of the country’s tradable sector

    Facial asymmetry tracks genetic diversity among Gorilla subspecies

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    Mountain gorillas are particularly inbred compared to other gorillas and even the most inbred human populations. As mountain gorilla skeletal material accumulated during the 1970s, researchers noted their pronounced facial asymmetry and hypothesized that it reflects a population-wide chewing side preference. However, asymmetry has also been linked to environmental and genetic stress in experimental models. Here, we examine facial asymmetry in 114 crania from three Gorilla subspecies using 3D geometric morphometrics. We measure fluctuating asymmetry (FA), defined as random deviations from perfect symmetry, and population-specific patterns of directional asymmetry (DA). Mountain gorillas, with a current population size of about 1000 individuals, have the highest degree of facial FA (explaining 17% of total facial shape variation), followed by Grauer gorillas (9%) and western lowland gorillas (6%), despite the latter experiencing the greatest ecological and dietary variability. DA, while significant in all three taxa, explains relatively less shape variation than FA does. Facial asymmetry correlates neither with tooth wear asymmetry nor increases with age in a mountain gorilla subsample, undermining the hypothesis that facial asymmetry is driven by chewing side preference. An examination of temporal trends shows that stress-induced developmental instability has increased over the last 100 years in these endangered apes

    Determinants of prompt and adequate care among presumed malaria cases in a community in eastern Rwanda : A cross sectional study

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    Background: In order to understand factors influencing fever/malaria management practices among community-based individuals, the study evaluated psychosocial, socio-demographic and environmental determinants of prompt and adequate healthcare-seeking behaviours. Methods: A quantitative household (HH) survey was conducted from December 2014 to February 2015 in Ruhuha sector, Bugesera district in the Eastern province of Rwanda. HHs that reported having had at least one member who experienced a fever and/or malaria episode in the previous 3 months prior to the study were included in the analysis. Healthcare-seeking behaviours associated with the last episode of illness were analysed. Socio-demographic, health facility access, long-lasting insecticidal-treated nets (LLINs), data on malaria knowledge, data and theory of planned behaviour (TPB) related variables (attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control) with regard to fever/malaria healthcare seeking, were collected. The primary outcome was prompt and adequate care defined as: (1) seeking advice or treatment at a health facility (health centre or hospital) or from a community health worker (CHW); (2) advice or treatment seeking within same/next day of symptoms onset; (3) received a laboratory diagnosis; (4) received advice or treatment; and, (5) reported completing the prescribed dose of medication. Determinants of prompt and adequate care among presumed malaria cases were evaluated using a logistic regression analysis. Results: Overall, 302 (21 %) of the 1410 interviewed HHs reported at least one member as having experienced a fever or malaria within the 3 months prior to the survey. The number of HHs (where at least one member reported fever/malaria) that reported seeking advice or treatment at a health facility (health centre or hospital) or from a CHW was 249 (82.4 %). Of those who sought advice or treatment, 87.3 % had done so on same/next day of symptoms developing, 82.8 % received a laboratory diagnosis, and more than 90 % who received treatment reported completing the prescribed dosage. Prompt and adequate care was reported from 162 of the 302 HHs (53.6 %) that experienced fever or malaria for one or more HH members. Bivariate analyses showed that head of household (HoH)-related characteristics including reported knowledge of three or more malaria symptoms, having health insurance, being able to pay for medical services, use of LLINs the night before the survey, having a positive attitude, perceiving social support, as well as a high-perceived behavioural control with regard to healthcare seeking, were all significantly associated with prompt and adequate care. In the final logistic regression model, a high-perceived behavioural control (odds ratio (OR) 5.068, p = 0.042), having a health insurance (OR 2.410, p = 0.044) and having knowledge of malaria symptoms (OR 1.654, p = 0.049) significantly predicted prompt and adequate care. Conclusions: To promote prompt and adequate care seeking for malaria in the area, particular emphasis should be placed on community-focused strategies that promote early malaria symptom recognition, increased health insurance coverage and enhanced perceived behavioural control with regard to healthcare-seeking.</p

    Diagnostic performance of smear microscopy and incremental yield of Xpert in detection of pulmonary tuberculosis in Rwanda

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    Background: Tuberculosis control program of Rwanda is currently phasing in light emitting diode-fluorescent microscopy (LED-FM) as an alternative to Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) smear microscopy. This, alongside the newly introduced Xpert (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA) is expected to improve diagnosis of tuberculosis and detection of rifampicin resistance in patients at health facilities. We assessed the accuracy of smear microscopy and the incremental sensitivity of Xpert at tuberculosis laboratories in Rwanda. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study involving four laboratories performing ZN and four laboratories performing LED-FM microscopy. The laboratories include four intermediate (ILs) and four peripheral (PLs) laboratories. After smear microscopy, the left-over of samples, of a single early-morning sputum from 648 participants, were tested using Xpert and mycobacterial culture as a reference standard. Sensitivity of each test was compared and the incremental sensitivity of Xpert after a negative smear was assessed. Results: A total of 96 presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis participants were culture positive for M. tuberculosis. The overall sensitivity in PL of ZN was 55.1 % (40.2-69.3 %), LED-FM was 37 % (19.4-57.6 %) and Xpert was 77.6 % (66.6-86.4 %) whereas in ILs the same value for ZN was 58.3 % (27.7-84.8 %), LED-FM was 62.5 % (24.5-91.5 %) and Xpert was 90 (68.3-98.8 %). The sensitivity for all tests was significantly higher among HIV-negative individuals (all test p <0.05). The overall incremental sensitivity of Xpert over smear microscopy was 32.3 %; p < 0.0001. The incremental sensitivity of Xpert was statistically significant for both smear methods at PL (32.9 %; p = 0.001) but not at the ILs (30 %; p = 0.125) for both smear methods. Conclusions: Our study findings of the early implementation of the LED-FM did not reveal significant increment in sensitivity compared to the method being phased out (ZN). This study showed a significant incremental sensitivity for Xpert from both smear methods at peripheral centers where majority of TB patients are diagnosed. Overall our findings support the recommendation for Xpert as an initial diagnostic test in adults and children presumed to have TB. © 2016 The Author(s)

    Using an intervention mapping approach for planning, implementing and assessing a community-led project towards malaria elimination in the Eastern Province of Rwanda

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    Background: Active community participation in malaria control is key to achieving malaria pre-elimination in Rwanda. This paper describes development, implementation and evaluation of a community-based malaria elimination project in Ruhuha sector, Bugesera district, Eastern province of Rwanda. Methods: Guided by an intervention mapping approach, a needs assessment was conducted using household and entomological surveys and focus group interviews. Data related to behavioural, epidemiological, entomological and economical aspects were collected. Desired behavioural and environmental outcomes were identified concurrently with behavioural and environmental determinants. Theoretical methods and their practical applications were enumerated to guide programme development and implementation. An operational plan including the scope and sequence as well as programme materials was developed. Two project components were subsequently implemented following community trainings: (1) community malaria action teams (CMATs) were initiated in mid-2014 as platforms to deliver malaria preventive messages at village level, and (2) a mosquito larval source control programme using biological substances was deployed for a duration of 6 months, implemented from January to July 2015. Process and outcome evaluation has been conducted for both programme components to inform future scale up. Results: The project highlighted malaria patterns in the area and underpinned behavioural and environmental factors contributing to malaria transmission. Active involvement of the community in collaboration with CMATs contributed to health literacy, particularly increasing ability to make knowledgeable decisions in regards to malaria prevention and control. A follow up survey conducted six months following the establishment of CMATs reported a reduction of presumed malaria cases at the end of 2014. The changes were related to an increase in the acceptance and use of available preventive measures, such as indoor residual spraying and increase in community-based health insurance membership, also considered as a predictor of prompt and adequate care. The innovative larval source control intervention contributed to reduction in mosquito density and nuisance bites, increased knowledge and skills for malaria control as well as programme ownership. Conclusion: This community-based programme demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of active community participation in malaria control activities, which largely contributed to community empowerment and reduction of presumed malaria in the area. Further studies should explore how gains may be sustained to achieve the goal of malaria pre-elimination

    Community-Based Control of Malaria Vectors Using Bacillus thuringiensis var. Israelensis (Bti) in Rwanda

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    Larval source management (LSM) programs for control of malaria vectors are often vertically organized, while there is much potential for involving local communities in program implementation. To address this, we evaluated the entomological impact of community-based application of Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Bti) in a rice irrigation scheme in Ruhuha, Rwanda. A non-randomized trial with control compared a Bti implementation program that was supervised by the project team (ES) with a program that was led and carried out by local rice farming communities (CB). One other area served as a control to assess mosquito populations without Bti application. Entomological surveys were carried out every two weeks and assessed the presence and abundance of the larval, pupal, and adult stages of Anopheles mosquitoes. In ES, the per round reduction in Anopheles larval habitats was estimated at 49%. This reduction was less in CB (28%) and control (22%) although the per round reduction in CB was still significantly higher than in control. Pupal production was almost completely prevented from round 5 (out of 10) onwards in both CB (average habitat occupancy 0.43%) and ES intervention arms (average habitat occupancy 0.27%), whereas pupal occupancy rates were on average 12.8% from round 5 onwards in the control. Emergence of adult mosquitoes from rice fields was thus prevented although this was not directly noticeable in adult An. gambiae populations in houses nearby the rice fields. Together with our earlier work on the willingness to financially contribute to the LSM program and the high perceived safety and acceptance of the Bti product, the current study demonstrates that, in an environment with limited resources, communities could become more engaged in LSM program implementation and contribute directly to malaria vector control in their environment

    Facial asymmetry tracks genetic diversity among Gorilla subspecies

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    Mountain gorillas are particularly inbred compared to other gorillas and even the most inbred human populations. As mountain gorilla skeletal material accumulated during the 1970s, researchers noted their pronounced facial asymmetry and hypothesized that it reflects a population-wide chewing side preference. However, asymmetry has also been linked to environmental and genetic stress in experimental models. Here, we examine facial asymmetry in 114 crania from three Gorilla subspecies using 3D geometric morphometrics. We measure fluctuating asymmetry (FA), defined as random deviations from perfect symmetry, and population-specific patterns of directional asymmetry (DA). Mountain gorillas, with a current population size of about 1000 individuals, have the highest degree of facial FA (explaining 17% of total facial shape variation), followed by Grauer gorillas (9%) and western lowland gorillas (6%), despite the latter experiencing the greatest ecological and dietary variability. DA, while significant in all three taxa, explains relatively less shape variation than FA does. Facial asymmetry correlates neither with tooth wear asymmetry nor increases with age in a mountain gorilla subsample, undermining the hypothesis that facial asymmetry is driven by chewing side preference. An examination of temporal trends shows that stress-induced developmental instability has increased over the last 100 years in these endangered apes
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