Forecasting GOES 15 >2 MeV Electron Fluxes From Solar Wind Data and Geomagnetic Indices

The flux of > 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit is used by space weather forecasters as a key indicator of enhanced risk of damage to spacecraft in low, medium or geosynchronous Earth orbits. We present a methodology that uses the amount of time a single input dataset (solar wind data or geomagnetic indices) exceeds a given threshold to produce deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the > 2 MeV flux at GEO exceeding 1000 or 10000 cm ‐2 s ‐1 sr ‐1 within up to 10 days. By comparing our forecasts with measured fluxes from GOES 15 between 2014 and 2016, we determine the optimum forecast thresholds for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts by maximising the ROC and Brier Skill Scores respectively. The training dataset gives peak ROC scores of 0.71 to 0.87 and peak Brier Skill Scores of ‐0.03 to 0.32. Forecasts from AL give the highest skill scores for forecasts of up to 6‐days. AL, solar wind pressure or SYM‐H give the highest skill scores over 7‐10 days. Hit rates range over 56‐89% with false alarm rates of 11‐53%. Applied to 2012, 2013 and 2017, our best forecasts have hit rates of 56‐83% and false alarm rates of 10‐20%. Further tuning of the forecasts may improve these. Our hit rates are comparable to those from operational fluence forecasts, that incorporate fluence measurements, but our false alarm rates are higher. This proof‐of‐concept shows that the geosynchronous electron flux can be forecast with a degree of success without incorporating a persistence element into the forecasts

How well do we forecast the aurora?

Michaela K Mooney and co-authors evaluate a space weather forecast model in the same way that weather forecasts are assessed, work that won the 2019 Rishbeth Prize for best poster

The Association of Cusp-Aligned Arcs With Plasma in the Magnetotail Implies a Closed Magnetosphere

We investigate a 15-day period in October 2011. Auroral observations by the Special Sensor Ultraviolet Spectrographic Imager instrument onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F16, F17, and F18 spacecraft indicate that the polar regions were covered by weak cusp-aligned arc (CAA) emissions whenever the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle was small, |θ| < 45°, which amounted to 30% of the time. Simultaneous observations of ions and electrons in the tail by the Cluster C4 and Geotail spacecraft showed that during these intervals dense (≈1 cm−3) plasma was observed, even as far from the equatorial plane of the tail as |ZGSE| ≈ 13 RE. The ions had a pitch angle distribution peaking parallel and antiparallel to the magnetic field and the electrons had pitch angles that peaked perpendicular to the field. We interpret the counter-streaming ions and double loss-cone electrons as evidence that the plasma was trapped on closed field lines, and acted as a source for the CAA emission across the polar regions. This suggests that the magnetosphere was almost entirely closed during these periods. We further argue that the closure occurred as a consequence of dual-lobe reconnection. Our finding forces a significant re-evaluation of the magnetic topology of the magnetosphere during periods of northwards IMF

Sustained Release of Multiple Growth Factors from Injectable Polymeric System as a Novel Therapeutic Approach Towards Angiogenesis

The aim was to investigate that a bio-degradable alginate and poly lactide-co-glycolide (PLG) system capable of delivering growth factors sequentially would be superior to single growth factor delivery in promoting neovascularization and improving perfusion

The association of cusp‐Aligned arcs with plasma in the magnetotail implies a closed magnetosphere

We investigate a 15-day period in October 2011. Auroral observations by the Special Sensor Ultraviolet Spectrographic Imager instrument onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F16, F17, and F18 spacecraft indicate that the polar regions were covered by weak cusp-aligned arc (CAA) emissions whenever the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle was small, |θ| < 45°, which amounted to 30% of the time. Simultaneous observations of ions and electrons in the tail by the Cluster C4 and Geotail spacecraft showed that during these intervals dense (≈1 cm−3) plasma was observed, even as far from the equatorial plane of the tail as |ZGSE| ≈ 13 RE. The ions had a pitch angle distribution peaking parallel and antiparallel to the magnetic field and the electrons had pitch angles that peaked perpendicular to the field. We interpret the counter-streaming ions and double loss-cone electrons as evidence that the plasma was trapped on closed field lines, and acted as a source for the CAA emission across the polar regions. This suggests that the magnetosphere was almost entirely closed during these periods. We further argue that the closure occurred as a consequence of dual-lobe reconnection. Our finding forces a significant re-evaluation of the magnetic topology of the magnetosphere during periods of northwards IMF

Assessing the Nature of the Distribution of Localised States in Bulk GaAsBi.

A comprehensive assessment of the nature of the distribution of sub band-gap energy states in bulk GaAsBi is presented using power and temperature dependent photoluminescence spectroscopy. The observation of a characteristic red-blue-red shift in the peak luminescence energy indicates the presence of short-range alloy disorder in the material. A decrease in the carrier localisation energy demonstrates the strong excitation power dependence of localised state behaviour and is attributed to the filling of energy states furthest from the valence band edge. Analysis of the photoluminescence lineshape at low temperature presents strong evidence for a Gaussian distribution of localised states that extends from the valence band edge. Furthermore, a rate model is employed to understand the non-uniform thermal quenching of the photoluminescence and indicates the presence of two Gaussian-like distributions making up the density of localised states. These components are attributed to the presence of microscopic fluctuations in Bi content, due to short-range alloy disorder across the GaAsBi layer, and the formation of Bi related point defects, resulting from low temperature growth

Exhaustive prediction of disease susceptibility to coding base changes in the human genome

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) are the most abundant form of genomic variation and can cause phenotypic differences between individuals, including diseases. Bases are subject to various levels of selection pressure, reflected in their inter-species conservation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We propose a method that is not dependant on transcription information to score each coding base in the human genome reflecting the disease probability associated with its mutation. Twelve factors likely to be associated with disease alleles were chosen as the input for a support vector machine prediction algorithm. The analysis yielded 83% sensitivity and 84% specificity in segregating disease like alleles as found in the Human Gene Mutation Database from non-disease like alleles as found in the Database of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms. This algorithm was subsequently applied to each base within all known human genes, exhaustively confirming that interspecies conservation is the strongest factor for disease association. For each gene, the length normalized average disease potential score was calculated. Out of the 30 genes with the highest scores, 21 are directly associated with a disease. In contrast, out of the 30 genes with the lowest scores, only one is associated with a disease as found in published literature. The results strongly suggest that the highest scoring genes are enriched for those that might contribute to disease, if mutated.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This method provides valuable information to researchers to identify sensitive positions in genes that have a high disease probability, enabling them to optimize experimental designs and interpret data emerging from genetic and epidemiological studies.</p

Limits on WWZ and WW\gamma couplings from p\bar{p}\to e\nu jj X events at \sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV

We present limits on anomalous WWZ and WW-gamma couplings from a search for WW and WZ production in p-bar p collisions at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV. We use p-bar p -> e-nu jjX events recorded with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider during the 1992-1995 run. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 96.0+-5.1 pb^(-1). Assuming identical WWZ and WW-gamma coupling parameters, the 95% CL limits on the CP-conserving couplings are -0.33<lambda<0.36 (Delta-kappa=0) and -0.43<Delta-kappa<0.59 (lambda=0), for a form factor scale Lambda = 2.0 TeV. Limits based on other assumptions are also presented.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, 2 table

Membership nominations in international scientific assessments

International scientific assessments are transnational knowledge-based expert networks with a mandate to advise policymakers. A well-known example is the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), which synthesized research on ecosystem services between 2001 and 2005, utilizing the knowledge of 1,360 expert members. Little, however, is known about the membership composition and the driving forces behind membership nominations in the MA and similar organizations. Here we introduce a survey data set on recruitment in the MA and analyse nomination patterns among experts as a complex network. The results indicate that membership recruitment was governed by prior contacts in other transnational elite organizations and a range of other factors related to personal affinity. Network analysis demonstrates how some core individuals were particularly influential in shaping the overall membership composition of the group. These findings add to recently noted concerns about the lack of diversity of views represented in international scientific assessments