Risk Management using Model Predictive Control

Forward planning and risk management are crucial for the success of any system or business dealing with the uncertainties of the real world. Previous approaches have largely assumed that the future will be similar to the past, or used simple forecasting techniques based on ad-hoc models. Improving solutions requires better projection of future events, and necessitates robust forward planning techniques that consider forecasting inaccuracies. This work advocates risk management through optimal control theory, and proposes several techniques to combine it with time-series forecasting. Focusing on applications in foreign exchange (FX) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), the contributions of this thesis are three-fold. First, a short-term risk management system for FX dealers is formulated as a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) problem in which the optimal risk-cost profiles are obtained through dynamic control of the dealers’ positions on the spot market. Second, grammatical evolution (GE) is used to automate non-linear time-series model selection, validation, and forecasting. Third, a novel measure for evaluating forecasting models, as a part of the predictive model in finite horizon optimal control applications, is proposed. Using both synthetic and historical data, the proposed techniques were validated and benchmarked. It was shown that the stochastic FX risk management system exhibits better risk management on a risk-cost Pareto frontier compared to rule-based hedging strategies, with up to 44.7% lower cost for the same level of risk. Similarly, for a real-world BESS application, it was demonstrated that the GE optimised forecasting models outperformed other prediction models by at least 9%, improving the overall peak shaving capacity of the system to 57.6%

Preliminary Study of the Morphology, Genesis and Classification of Some Soils Developed from Pierre Shale

Soil scientists have recognized that there are differences in crop adaptability and yields of crops and range grasses among the well-drained clay soils developed from Pierre shale in the Chestnut region of western South Dakota. It is difficult, however, to measure quantitative differences in soil characteristics among these soils which are unlike agronomically. As a result the Pierre soil series which includes well-drained clay soils developed from clay residuum over bedded shale is mapped over the entire area. The reason that these fine textured soils appear similar is that the dark olive-hued shale and shale residuum tends to mask out any striking color, structure and consistence differences in soils across the climatic continuum of their occurrence. The purpose of this study is to compare soil profiles taken from well-drained sites representing the climatic range of this continuum to see what soil differences, even though small, might be apparent to a field morphologist, and also to ascertain what differences can be detected in soil characteristics determined in the laboratory. Using these comparisons, Pierre soil series criteria will be examined to see if the present range of the series is too broad

The involvement of fatty acid binding protein in peroxisomal fatty acid oxidation

AbstractRat liver fatty acid-binding protein (FABP) can function as a fatty acid donor protein for both peroxisomal and mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation, since 14C-labeled palmitic acid bound to FABP is oxidized by both organelles. FABP is, however, not detected in peroxisomes and mitochondria of rat liver by ELISA. Acyl-CoA oxidase activity of isolated peroxisomes was not changed by addition of FABP or flavaspidic acid, an inhibitor of fatty acid binding to FABP, nor by disruption of the peroxisomal membranes. These data indicate that FABP may transfer fatty acids to peroxisomes, but is not involved in the transport of acyl-CoA through the peroxisomal membrane

Before It’s Too Late: A Digital Game Preservation White Paper

Over the last four decades, electronic games have profoundly changed the way people play, learn, and connect with each other. Despite the tremendous impact of electronic games, however, until recently, relatively few programs existed to preserve them for future generations of players and researchers. Recognizing the need to save the original content and intellectual property of electronic games from media rot, obsolescence, and loss, the Game Preservation Special Interest Group of the International Game Developers Association has issued a white paper summarizing why electronic games should be preserved, problems that must be solved to do so, some potential solutions, and why all these issues should matter to everyone interested in electronic games and play in general. In the white paper, the editing of which was partially supported by the Preserving Virtual Worlds project and by funds from the Library of Congress, its editor and six authors (Rachel Donahue created a survey for IGDA members not included in this article) issue a call for heightened awareness of the need to preserve electronic games—endangered by relatively rapid electronic decay and intellectual neglect alike—for play scholarship and for the culture of the twenty-first century

An empirical analysis of the status of good faith in contractual performance: the Australian experience

This thesis examines the concept of good faith in contractual performance as an important element in Australian contract law. The research begins with an empirical investigation of the extent of judicial support for an obligation of good faith in contract law since it was first put onto the judicial agenda in Australia by the case of Renard Construction (ME) v Minister for Works (1992) 26 NSWLR 234 through the obiter comments of Priestley J in 1992. The research continues with an empirical investigation of the meaning of good faith. There are many possible interpretations of the meaning of good faith, most of which are complex, contradictory, and unclear, which has led to undesirable uncertainty in the concept of good faith. The research then critically evaluates the possibility of legislating an obligation of good faith in contractual performance. 104 Australian cases from 1992 to 2009 that raised the issue of good faith were identified. The study period was divided into three phases; ‘Introduction Phase 1992- 1998’, ‘Development Phase 1999-2003’, and ‘Consolidation Phase 2004-2009’. These phases are examined for trends and development of the concept. A four Likerttype scale was used to access the attitude of the judges regarding the concept of good faith. In order to measure the validity and reliability of the data, the ‘average’ and ‘standard deviation’ is used in this study. The empirical observation concluded that there is still inconsistency of support from judges towards the issue of good faith. A rigorous thematic analysis of the meaning of good faith was conducted to propose a workable meaning of good faith. Despite the traditional reservations arising from uncertainty associated with the many meanings of good faith, an empirical analysis concluded that a workable meaning of good faith could be achieved by way of ‘multi-categories’. The previous Australian government accepted the recommendation to legislate good faith in the context of franchising to regulate the unethical behaviour of franchisors toward franchisees. In the context of franchising, good faith is legislated by way of ‘non-discretionary reference criteria’ as prescribed in S 22 of Australian Consumer Law. The development of good faith in the context of franchising offers a valuable opportunity for legislating good faith in contractual performance. Overall, this thesis argues that in the absence of a High Court decision regarding the application and meaning of good faith in contract law, there is scope for legislating a good faith obligation by defining good faith. This thesis suggests that good faith can be defined by way of ‘multi -categories’

Description and ecophysiology of a new species of Syndesmis Silliman, 1881 (Rhabdocoela: Umagillidae) from the sea urchin Evechinus chloroticus (Valenciennes, 1846) Mortensen, 1943 in New Zealand

A new rhabdocoel of the genus Syndesmis Silliman, 1881 (Umagillidae) is described from the intestine of the New Zealand sea urchin Evechinus chloroticus (Valenciennes, 1846) Mortensen, 1943a. This new species, Syndesmis kurakaikina n. sp., is morphologically distinct and can easily be recognised by its very long (+/- 1 mm) styles and its bright-red colour. In addition to providing a formal description, we present some observations on reproduction and life history of this new species. Fecundity is comparable to that of other umagillids and the rate of egg production and development increases with temperature. Hatching in this species is induced by intestinal fluids of its host. Relevant to global warming, we assessed the effect of temperature on survival, fecundity, and development. The tests indicate that Syndesmis kurakaikina n. sp. is tolerant of a wide range of temperatures (11-25 degrees C) and that its temperature optimum lies between 18.0 and 21.5 degrees C. Egg viability is, however, significantly compromised at the higher end of this temperature range, with expelled egg capsules often being deformed and showing increasingly lower rates of hatching. Given this, a rise in global temperature might increase the risk of Syndesmis kurakaikina n. sp. infecting new hosts and would possibly facilitate the spread of these endosymbionts.Peer reviewe

Scalable electrodeposition of liquid metal from an acetonitrile-based electrolyte for highly-integrated stretchable electronics

For the advancement of highly-integrated stretchable electronics, the development of scalable sub-micrometer conductor patterning is required. Eutectic gallium indium EGaIn is an attractive conductor for stretchable electronics, as its liquid metallic character grants it high electrical conductivity upon deformation. However, its high surface energy precludes patterning it with (sub)-micron resolution. Herein, we overcome this limitation by reporting for the first time the electrodeposition of EGaIn. We use a non-aqueous acetonitrile-based electrolyte that exhibits high electrochemical stability and chemical orthogonality. The electrodeposited material led to low-resistance lines that remained stable upon (repeated) stretching to a 100 percent strain. Because electrodeposition benefits from the resolution of mature nanofabrication methods used to pattern the base metal, the proposed bottom-up approach achieved a record-high density integration of EGaIn regular lines of 300 nm half-pitch on an elastomer substrate by plating on a gold seed layer pre-patterned by nanoimprinting. Moreover, vertical integration was enabled by filling high aspect ratio vias. This capability was conceptualized by the fabrication of an omnidirectionally stretchable 3D electronic circuit, and demonstrates a soft-electronic analogue of the stablished damascene process used to fabricate microchip interconnects. Overall, this work proposes a simple route to address the challenge of metallization in highly integrated (3D) stretchable electronics.Comment: The main manuscript contains 29 pages and 5 figures. The supporting information, attached to the document after the references, contains 8 pages and 8 figures. The manuscript is submitted to the journal Advanced Materials. Francisco Molina-Lopez an Jan Fransaer share the role of corresponding autho