Output, Investment and Capacity: An Empirical Investigation using Firm-Level Business-Survey Data in the United Kingdom

This thesis uses firm-level survey data to examine the decision-making of firms in order to gain greater insight into macrodynamics. Chapter 2 examines the questions posed, the sample frame (i.e. details on the number and participation rates of respondents) and the characteristics of the firm participants of the Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) suite of business surveys. This dataset of firm-level survey responses is then matched to two external company accounts datasets (the Bureau van Dijk FAME dataset and the Office of National Statistics (ONS) Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR), including various ONS business surveys). Matching to external data sources often requires decisions to be made on how the matching should be conducted. Matching the CBI data to the IDBR yields a set of multiple matches when propensity-score matching is unable to select a definite match. Rather than dropping these firms from the sample, this chapter develops a decision rule to select a unique match from this set of multiple matches. Match results are around 50% when matching the CBI dataset with the Bureau van Dijk FAME dataset and around 90% when matched with the IDBR. However, match rates with the various ONS business surveys are lower than the corresponding match rates with the Bureau van Dijk FAME dataset (and in some cases far lower). Match rates are also reported for variation by geography, size and time-period. The matched dataset is then used in an illustrative exercise to examine the directional accuracy of firm output and employment forecasts. The results indicate the output and employment forecasts of firms in the manufacturing and mining and distributive trades sectors have value. However, this is not the case in either the service or financial services sector. Chapter 3 introduces the new and novel meta-modelling quantification approach, which is used to produce quantitative industry-level measures of expected output growth, output disagreement and output uncertainty in the UK (using firm-level survey responses in the CBI dataset). This new quantification strategy provides more reliable estimates of expected output growth and output uncertainty compared to existing techniques such as the simple balance statistic (or the Anderson-Pesaran regression approach). These new quantified series are employed alongside actual output growth data in an analysis of the source of innovations and propagation mechanisms underlying output dynamics. These interactions are complex and out-of-line with those suggested by simple models embodying rational expectations. In addition, using a Beveridge-Nelson trends decomposition, this chapter shows there is a role for output uncertainty and output disagreement shocks in influencing business cycle dynamics - with these having relatively substantial effects of up to 4% in different sectors during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the sovereign debt crisis and the Brexit negotiations. Chapter 4 extends the classic Abel (1981) paper to introduce capacity utilisation into a dynamic model with adjustment costs describing investment and hiring decisions of the firm. It provides an analytical solution for the theoretical model and then uses survey data from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey to test the model empirically. The results show that firms adjust their capital stock around a long-run equilibrium determined by sales over time. However, the speed of this adjustment depends on whether the model accounts for a capacity error correction term. Specifically, models which do not include a capacity error correction term overestimate the error correcting behaviour of firms, and imply a quicker adjustment speed of capital to its long-run equilibrium value. In other words, excluding capacity dynamics from an accelerator model of investment underestimates the time it takes capital to return to its long-run equilibrium value - providing an explanation for sluggish investment following recessionary periods

Output, Investment and Capacity: An Empirical Investigation using Firm-Level Business-Survey Data in the United Kingdom

This thesis uses firm-level survey data to examine the decision-making of firms in order to gain greater insight into macrodynamics. Chapter 2 examines the questions posed, the sample frame (i.e. details on the number and participation rates of respondents) and the characteristics of the firm participants of the Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) suite of business surveys. This dataset of firm-level survey responses is then matched to two external company accounts datasets (the Bureau van Dijk FAME dataset and the Office of National Statistics (ONS) Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR), including various ONS business surveys). Matching to external data sources often requires decisions to be made on how the matching should be conducted. Matching the CBI data to the IDBR yields a set of multiple matches when propensity-score matching is unable to select a definite match. Rather than dropping these firms from the sample, this chapter develops a decision rule to select a unique match from this set of multiple matches. Match results are around 50% when matching the CBI dataset with the Bureau van Dijk FAME dataset and around 90% when matched with the IDBR. However, match rates with the various ONS business surveys are lower than the corresponding match rates with the Bureau van Dijk FAME dataset (and in some cases far lower). Match rates are also reported for variation by geography, size and time-period. The matched dataset is then used in an illustrative exercise to examine the directional accuracy of firm output and employment forecasts. The results indicate the output and employment forecasts of firms in the manufacturing and mining and distributive trades sectors have value. However, this is not the case in either the service or financial services sector. Chapter 3 introduces the new and novel meta-modelling quantification approach, which is used to produce quantitative industry-level measures of expected output growth, output disagreement and output uncertainty in the UK (using firm-level survey responses in the CBI dataset). This new quantification strategy provides more reliable estimates of expected output growth and output uncertainty compared to existing techniques such as the simple balance statistic (or the Anderson-Pesaran regression approach). These new quantified series are employed alongside actual output growth data in an analysis of the source of innovations and propagation mechanisms underlying output dynamics. These interactions are complex and out-of-line with those suggested by simple models embodying rational expectations. In addition, using a Beveridge-Nelson trends decomposition, this chapter shows there is a role for output uncertainty and output disagreement shocks in influencing business cycle dynamics - with these having relatively substantial effects of up to 4% in different sectors during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the sovereign debt crisis and the Brexit negotiations. Chapter 4 extends the classic Abel (1981) paper to introduce capacity utilisation into a dynamic model with adjustment costs describing investment and hiring decisions of the firm. It provides an analytical solution for the theoretical model and then uses survey data from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey to test the model empirically. The results show that firms adjust their capital stock around a long-run equilibrium determined by sales over time. However, the speed of this adjustment depends on whether the model accounts for a capacity error correction term. Specifically, models which do not include a capacity error correction term overestimate the error correcting behaviour of firms, and imply a quicker adjustment speed of capital to its long-run equilibrium value. In other words, excluding capacity dynamics from an accelerator model of investment underestimates the time it takes capital to return to its long-run equilibrium value - providing an explanation for sluggish investment following recessionary periods

Phase Identification of Smart Meters Using a Fourier Series Compression and a Statistical Clustering Algorithm

Accurate labeling of phase connectivity in electrical distribution systems is important for maintenance and operations but is often erroneous or missing. In this paper, we present a process to identify which smart meters must be in the same phase using a hierarchical clustering method on voltage time series data. Instead of working with the time series data directly, we apply the Fourier transform to represent the data in their frequency domain, remove $98\%$ of the Fourier coefficients, and use the remaining coefficients to cluster the meters are in the same phase. Result of this process is validated by confirming that cluster (phase) membership of meters does not change over two monthly periods. In addition, we also confirm that meters that belong to the same feeder within the distribution network are correctly classified into the same cluster, that is, assigned to the same phase.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figures, 4 table

A randomised control trial of low glycaemic index carbohydrate diet versus no dietary intervention in the prevention of recurrence of macrosomia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Maternal weight and maternal weight gain during pregnancy exert a significant influence on infant birth weight and the incidence of macrosomia. Fetal macrosomia is associated with an increase in both adverse obstetric and neonatal outcome, and also confers a future risk of childhood obesity. Studies have shown that a low glycaemic diet is associated with lower birth weights, however these studies have been small and not randomised <abbrgrp><abbr bid="B1">1</abbr><abbr bid="B2">2</abbr></abbrgrp>. Fetal macrosomia recurs in a second pregnancy in one third of women, and maternal weight influences this recurrence risk <abbrgrp><abbr bid="B3">3</abbr></abbrgrp>.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>We propose a randomised control trial of low glycaemic index carbohydrate diet vs. no dietary intervention in the prevention of recurrence of fetal macrosomia.</p> <p>Secundigravid women whose first baby was macrosomic, defined as a birth weight greater than 4000 g will be recruited at their first antenatal visit.</p> <p>Patients will be randomised into two arms, a control arm which will receive no dietary intervention and a diet arm which will be commenced on a low glycaemic index diet.</p> <p>The primary outcome measure will be the mean birth weight centiles and ponderal indices in each group.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Altering the source of maternal dietary carbohydrate may prove to be valuable in the management of pregnancies where there has been a history of fetal macrosomia. Fetal macrosomia recurs in a second pregnancy in one third of women. This randomised control trial will investigate whether or not a low glycaemic index diet can affect this recurrence risk.</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials Registration Number</p> <p>ISRCTN54392969</p

Polyploidy breaks speciation barriers in Australian burrowing frogs Neobatrachus

Polyploidy has played an important role in evolution across the tree of life but it is still unclear how polyploid lineages may persist after their initial formation. While both common and well-studied in plants, polyploidy is rare in animals and generally less understood. The Australian burrowing frog genus Neobatrachus is comprised of six diploid and three polyploid species and offers a powerful animal polyploid model system. We generated exome-capture sequence data from 87 individuals representing all nine species of Neobatrachus to investigate species-level relationships, the origin and inheritance mode of polyploid species, and the population genomic effects of polyploidy on genus-wide demography. We describe rapid speciation of diploid Neobatrachus species and show that the three independently originated polyploid species have tetrasomic or mixed inheritance. We document higher genetic diversity in tetraploids, resulting from widespread gene flow between the tetraploids, asymmetric inter-ploidy gene flow directed from sympatric diploids to tetraploids, and isolation of diploid species from each other. We also constructed models of ecologically suitable areas for each species to investigate the impact of climate on differing ploidy levels. These models suggest substantial change in suitable areas compared to past climate, which correspond to population genomic estimates of demographic histories. We propose that Neobatrachus diploids may be suffering the early genomic impacts of climate-induced habitat loss, while tetraploids appear to be avoiding this fate, possibly due to widespread gene flow. Finally, we demonstrate that Neobatrachus is an attractive model to study the effects of ploidy on the evolution of adaptation in animals

The support model for people with legally modified abilities according to United Nations

Este artículo se basa en una investigación social sobre el sistema de protección jurídica de las personas con algún tipo de discapacidad o en situación de dependencia que se encuentran sometidas a las figuras de tutela o curatela, en aplicación de lo previsto y establecido en el Código Civil Español, en sus artículos 199 y 200, así como en la Ley de Enjuiciamiento Civil. La investigación se plantea como un estudio comparado entre diferentes países de la Unión Europea para ver su adecuación a lo establecido en el artículo 12 de la Convención de Naciones Unidas sobre derechos de las Personas con Discapacidad (en adelante, CDPD) en los procedimientos de incapacitación. Los resultados se analizan sobre la base de modelos técnico-sociales de intervención, los análisis jurídicos y la experiencia adquirida por las Fundación Tutelares de Castilla y León. Se proponen y diseñan algunas alternativas y servicios que pueden mejorar la calidad de vida de las personas adultas incapacitadas judicialmente y el tipo de apoyos que se les puede prestar, de acuerdo a lo establecido en la Convención de Naciones Unidas.This article is based on social research into the system of legal protection for persons with disabilities or in a situation of dependence who are subject to the figures of guardianship or conservatorship pursuant to the provisions in the Spanish Civil Code, sections 199 and 200, as well as the Code of Civil Procedure. The research is presented as a comparative study between different countries of the European Union regarding the adaptation to the provisions of Article 12 of the UN Convention on Rights of Persons with Disabilities (hereinafter CRPD) Incapacitation procedures. The results are analyzed on the basis of technical-social intervention models, legal analysis and the experience of Guardianship Foundations of Castilla y León. Some alternatives and services are proposed and designed that can improve the quality of life of legally incapacitated persons and the type of support that can be provided to them in accordance with the provisions of the United Nations Convention

The Australia Telescope 20GHz (AT20G) Survey: analysis of the extragalactic source sample

The Australia Telescope 20 GHz (AT20G) survey is a blind survey of the whole Southern sky at 20 GHz with follow-up observations at 4.8, 8.6, and 20 GHz carried out with the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). In this paper we present an analysis of radio spectral properties in total intensity and polarisation, sizes, optical identifications, and redshifts of the sample of the 5808 extragalactic sources in the survey catalogue of confirmed sources over the whole Southern sky excluding the strip at Galactic latitude |b|<1.5deg. The sample has a flux density limit of 40 mJy. Completeness has been measured as a function of scan region and flux density. Averaging over the whole survey area the follow-up survey is 78% complete above 50mJy and 93% complete above 100mJy. 3332 sources with declination <-15deg have good quality almost simultaneous observations at 4.8, 8.6, and 20GHz. The spectral analysis shows that the sample is dominated by flat-spectrum sources. The fraction of flat-spectrum sources decreases from 81% for 20GHz flux densities S>500mJy, to 60% for S<100mJy. There is also a clear spectral steepening at higher frequencies with the median spectral index decreasing from -0.16 between 4.8 and 8.6GHz to -0.28 between 8.6 and 20GHz. Simultaneous observations in polarisation are available for all the sources at all the frequencies. 768 sources have a good quality detection of polarised flux density at 20GHz; 467 of them were also detected in polarisation at 4.8 and/or at 8.6GHz so that it has been possible to compare the spectral behaviour in total intensity and polarisation. We have found that the polarised fraction increases slightly with frequency and decreases with flux density. Cross matches and comparisons have been made with other catalogues at lower radio frequencies, and in the optical, X-ray and gamma-ray bands. Redshift estimates are available for 825 sources.Comment: 15 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Anticancer Properties of a Novel Class of Tetrafluorinated Thalidomide Analogues

The authors thank Scott McMenemy for carrying out preliminary, early studies looking at effects of Gu compounds upon chicken embryology, as well as Charles D. Crowe, Jeffrey E. Roth, and Adam C. Rolt for critical comments on the article. fli1:EGFP zebrafish were obtained from the Zebrafish International Research Center (27). mpo:GFP zebrafish [also termed Tg(MPO:GFP)114] zebrafish were obtained from Dr. Stephen Renshaw, University of Sheffield (Sheffield, South Yorkshire, UK; ref. 29).Peer reviewedPostprin