1,537 research outputs found

    Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

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    Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size NN. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size NN tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as NN \to \infty but more slowly than N1/2N^{-1/2}. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

    Typology of adults diagnosed with mental disorders based on socio-demographics and clinical and service use characteristics

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mental disorder is a leading cause of morbidity worldwide. Its cost and negative impact on productivity are substantial. Consequently, improving mental health-care system efficiency - especially service utilisation - is a priority. Few studies have explored the use of services by specific subgroups of persons with mental disorder; a better understanding of these individuals is key to improving service planning. This study develops a typology of individuals, diagnosed with mental disorder in a 12-month period, based on their individual characteristics and use of services within a Canadian urban catchment area of 258,000 persons served by a psychiatric hospital.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>From among the 2,443 people who took part in the survey, 406 (17%) experienced at least one episode of mental disorder (as per the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI)) in the 12 months pre-interview. These individuals were selected for cluster analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Analysis yielded four user clusters: people who experienced mainly anxiety disorder; depressive disorder; alcohol and/or drug disorder; and multiple mental and dependence disorder. Two clusters were more closely associated with females and anxiety or depressive disorders. In the two other clusters, males were over-represented compared with the sample as a whole, namely, substance abuses with or without concomitant mental disorder. Clusters with the greatest number of mental disorders per subject used a greater number of mental health-care services. Conversely, clusters associated exclusively with dependence disorders used few services.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study found considerable heterogeneity among socio-demographic characteristics, number of disorders, and number of health-care services used by individuals with mental or dependence disorders. Cluster analysis revealed important differences in service use with regard to gender and age. It reinforces the relevance of developing targeted programs for subgroups of individuals with mental and/or dependence disorders. Strategies aimed at changing low service users' attitude (youths and males) or instituting specialised programs for that particular clientele should be promoted. Finally, as concomitant disorders are frequent among individuals with mental disorder, psychological services and/or addiction programs must be prioritised as components of integrated services when planning treatment.</p

    Stable Isotope Metabolic Labeling with a Novel 15N-Enriched Bacteria Diet for Improved Proteomic Analyses of Mouse Models for Psychopathologies

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    The identification of differentially regulated proteins in animal models of psychiatric diseases is essential for a comprehensive analysis of associated psychopathological processes. Mass spectrometry is the most relevant method for analyzing differences in protein expression of tissue and body fluid proteomes. However, standardization of sample handling and sample-to-sample variability are problematic. Stable isotope metabolic labeling of a proteome represents the gold standard for quantitative mass spectrometry analysis. The simultaneous processing of a mixture of labeled and unlabeled samples allows a sensitive and accurate comparative analysis between the respective proteomes. Here, we describe a cost-effective feeding protocol based on a newly developed 15N bacteria diet based on Ralstonia eutropha protein, which was applied to a mouse model for trait anxiety. Tissue from 15N-labeled vs. 14N-unlabeled mice was examined by mass spectrometry and differences in the expression of glyoxalase-1 (GLO1) and histidine triad nucleotide binding protein 2 (Hint2) proteins were correlated with the animals' psychopathological behaviors for methodological validation and proof of concept, respectively. Additionally, phenotyping unraveled an antidepressant-like effect of the incorporation of the stable isotope 15N into the proteome of highly anxious mice. This novel phenomenon is of considerable relevance to the metabolic labeling method and could provide an opportunity for the discovery of candidate proteins involved in depression-like behavior. The newly developed 15N bacteria diet provides researchers a novel tool to discover disease-relevant protein expression differences in mouse models using quantitative mass spectrometry

    Characterization of Sulfolobus islandicus rod-shaped virus 2 gp19, a single-strand specific endonuclease

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    The hyperthermophilic Sulfolobus islandicus rod-shaped virus 2 (SIRV2) encodes a 25-kDa protein (SIRV2gp19) annotated as a hypothetical protein with sequence homology to the RecB nuclease superfamily. Even though SIRV2gp19 homologs are conserved throughout the rudivirus family and presumably play a role in the viral life cycle, SIRV2gp19 has not been functionally characterized. To define the minimal requirements for activity, SIRV2gp19 was purified and tested under varying conditions. SIRV2gp19 is a single-strand specific endonuclease that requires Mg2+ for activity and is inactive on double-stranded DNA. A conserved aspartic acid in RecB nuclease superfamily Motif II (D89) is also essential for SIRV2gp19 activity and mutation to alanine (D89A) abolishes activity. Therefore, the SIRV2gp19 cleavage mechanism is similar to previously described RecB nucleases. Finally, SIRV2gp19 single-stranded DNA endonuclease activity could play a role in host chromosome degradation during SIRV2 lytic infection

    Hostility, Physical Aggression and Trait Anger as Predictors for Suicidal Behavior in Chinese Adolescents: A School-Based Study

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    Purpose: This study explored the extent to which trait aggression is associated with suicidal behavior in a nationwide school-based sample of adolescents. Methods: A nationwide sample of 14,537 high school students in urban areas of China was recruited. Information concerning suicide ideation, plans, attempts, trait aggression and other risk factors was collected by a self-reported questionnaire. Multivariate regression analyses were employed to predict suicidal behavior. Results: Approximately 18.5 % of students reported suicide ideation, 8.7 % reported suicide plans, and 4.1 % reported attempts during the past one year. Hostility and trait anger had a significant positive association with suicidal ideation. Hostility and physical aggression were positively related to suicide plans. Hostility had a positive correlation with suicide attempts, while trait anger was inversely associated with suicide attempts. Conclusions: This study suggests that hostility, physical aggression and trait anger may be able to be used to predict suicidal behavior among adolescents. Suicide prevention programs should target at attenuating the severity of hostility, anger and physical aggression. But teachers and parents should also give close attention to students with low trait anger

    Homotypic and heterotypic psychopathological continuity: a child cohort study

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    Background: Heterotypic psychopathological continuity (i.e. one disorder predicting another at a later time point) contradicts the conventional view that psychiatric disorders are discrete, static entities. Studying this phenomenon may help to tease out the complex mechanisms that underpin psychiatric comorbidity. To date, no studies have explicitly compared heterotypic effects within and across higher order dimensions of psychopathology. // Methods: Patterns of homotypic and heterotypic psychopathological continuity were examined using cohort data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC, N = 4815). Eight common psychiatric disorders were assessed at age 7.5 and again at age 14 years using the maternal report version of the Development and Well-Being Assessment (DAWBA). Cross-lagged models were used to compare patterns of homotypic and heterotypic continuity within and across three higher order dimensions of psychopathology; internalizing-fear, internalizing-distress, and externalizing. // Results: Homotypic continuity was universal. Considerable heterotypic continuity was observed even after controlling for homotypic continuity and the presence of all disorders at baseline. Heterotypic continuity was more common within higher order dimensions, but a number of significant cross-dimension effects were observed, with ADHD acting as a strong predictor of subsequent internalizing disorders. // Conclusions: Heterotypic continuity may reflect elements of shared aetiology, or local-level interactions between disorders
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