Confidence Cycles

We provide a model that rationalizes variations in confidence of rational agents, both in the time-series and the cross-section. Combining horizon-dependent risk aversion (“anxiety”) and selective memory, we show that over- and underconfidence can arise in the Bayesian equilibrium of an intra-personal game. In the time-series, overconfidence is more prevalent when actual risk levels are high, while underconfidence occurs when risks are low. In the cross-section, more anxious agents are more prone to biased confidence and their beliefs fluctuate more, leading them to buy in booms and sell in crashes. Lastly, fluctuations in confidence can amplify boom-bust cycles

Field theoretic approach to the counting problem of Hamiltonian cycles of graphs

A Hamiltonian cycle of a graph is a closed path that visits each site once and only once. I study a field theoretic representation for the number of Hamiltonian cycles for arbitrary graphs. By integrating out quadratic fluctuations around the saddle point, one obtains an estimate for the number which reflects characteristics of graphs well. The accuracy of the estimate is verified by applying it to 2d square lattices with various boundary conditions. This is the first example of extracting meaningful information from the quadratic approximation to the field theory representation.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, uses epsf.sty. Estimates for the site entropy and the gamma exponent indicated explicitl

The structure ofAl(111)-K−(√3 × √3)R30° determined by LEED: stable and metastable adsorption sites

It is found that the adsorption of potassium on Al(111) at 90 K and at 300 K both result in a (√3 × √3)R0° structure. Through a detailed LEED analysis it is revealed that at 300 K the adatoms occupy substitutional sites and at 90 K the adatoms occupy on-top sites; both geometries have hitherto been considered as very unusual. The relationship between bond length and coordination is discussed with respect to the present results, and with respect to other quantitative studies of alkali-metal/metal adsorption systems

The Generation of Fullerenes

We describe an efficient new algorithm for the generation of fullerenes. Our implementation of this algorithm is more than 3.5 times faster than the previously fastest generator for fullerenes -- fullgen -- and the first program since fullgen to be useful for more than 100 vertices. We also note a programming error in fullgen that caused problems for 136 or more vertices. We tabulate the numbers of fullerenes and IPR fullerenes up to 400 vertices. We also check up to 316 vertices a conjecture of Barnette that cubic planar graphs with maximum face size 6 are hamiltonian and verify that the smallest counterexample to the spiral conjecture has 380 vertices.Comment: 21 pages; added a not

Exact Results for Hamiltonian Walks from the Solution of the Fully Packed Loop Model on the Honeycomb Lattice

We derive the nested Bethe Ansatz solution of the fully packed O($n$) loop model on the honeycomb lattice. From this solution we derive the bulk free energy per site along with the central charge and geometric scaling dimensions describing the critical behaviour. In the $n=0$ limit we obtain the exact compact exponents $\gamma=1$ and $\nu=1/2$ for Hamiltonian walks, along with the exact value $\kappa^2 = 3 \sqrt 3 /4$ for the connective constant (entropy). Although having sets of scaling dimensions in common, our results indicate that Hamiltonian walks on the honeycomb and Manhattan lattices lie in different universality classes.Comment: 12 pages, RevTeX, 3 figures supplied on request, ANU preprint MRR-050-9

Loop Model with Generalized Fugacity in Three Dimensions

A statistical model of loops on the three-dimensional lattice is proposed and is investigated. It is O(n)-type but has loop fugacity that depends on global three-dimensional shapes of loops in a particular fashion. It is shown that, despite this non-locality and the dimensionality, a layer-to-layer transfer matrix can be constructed as a product of local vertex weights for infinitely many points in the parameter space. Using this transfer matrix, the site entropy is estimated numerically in the fully packed limit.Comment: 16pages, 4 eps figures, (v2) typos and Table 3 corrected. Refs added, (v3) an error in an explanation of fig.2 corrected. Refs added. (v4) Changes in the presentatio

Trade unions and precariat in Europe : representative claims

Trade unions have been charged with neglecting labour market ‘outsiders’, while alternative actors have emerged to represent these. In response, unions have stepped up their claim to be representative of all workers, without distinction. We review the theoretical and policy debates on this issue, and argue that representation as such has been under-theorized. We draw on Saward’s concept of ‘representative claims’ to analyse the different grounds for competing assertions of representativeness. We identify four main forms of claims, and illustrate these with empirical examples. We conclude that these different claims are mutually reinforcing in stimulating attention to the outsiders, and in their interaction with institutional settings, they have a performative effect in defining new social actors

Kinematic differences exist between transtibial amputee fallers and non-fallers during downwards step transitioning.

Stair negotiation is biomechanically more challenging than level gait. There are few biomechanical assessments of transtibial amputees descending stairs and none specifically related to falls. Stair descent may elicit more differences than level gait in amputees with and without a previous falls history