Tandem Repeat Analysis for Surveillance of Human Salmonella Typhimurium Infections

Multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeats analysis improves surveillance and outbreak investigations

Copepod life strategy and population viability in response to prey timing and temperature : testing a new model across latitude, time, and the size spectrum

A new model ("Coltrane": Copepod Life-history Traits and Adaptation to Novel Environments) describes environmental controls on copepod populations via (1) phenology and life history and (2) temperature and energy budgets in a unified framework. The model tracks a cohort of copepods spawned on a given date using a set of coupled equations for structural and reserve biomass, developmental stage, and survivorship, similar to many other individual-based models. It then analyzes a family of cases varying spawning date over the year to produce population-level results, and families of cases varying one or more traits to produce community-level results. In an idealized global-scale testbed, the model correctly predicts life strategies in large Calanus spp. ranging from multiple generations per year to multiple years per generation. In a Bering Sea testbed, the model replicates the dramatic variability in the abundance of Calanus glacialis/marshallae observed between warm and cold years of the 2000s, and indicates that prey phenology linked to sea ice is a more important driver than temperature per se. In a Disko Bay, West Greenland testbed, the model predicts the viability of a spectrum of large-copepod strategies from income breeders with a adult size ~100 μgC reproducing once per year through capital breeders with an adult size > 1000 μgC with a multiple-year life cycle. This spectrum corresponds closely to the observed life histories and physiology of local populations of Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, and Calanus hyperboreus. Together, these complementary initial experiments demonstrate that many patterns in copepod community composition and productivity can be predicted from only a few key constraints on the individual energy budget: the total energy available in a given environment per year; the energy and time required to build an adult body; the metabolic and predation penalties for taking too long to reproduce; and the size and temperature dependence of the vital rates involved

Sensitivity of Calanus spp. copepods to environmental changes in the North Sea using life-stage structured models

The copepods Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus co-exist in the North Sea, but their spatial distribution and phenology are very different. Long-term changes in their distributions seem to occur due to climate change resulting in a northward extension of C. helgolandicus and a decline of C. finmarchicus in this region. The aim of this study is to use life-stage structured models of the two Calanus species embedded in a 3D coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model to investigate how the biogeography of C. finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus is modified by changes in ± 2°C sea water temperatures, overwintering and oceanic inflow in the North Sea. Life-stage structured models are validated against CPR data and vertical distributions north of the Dogger Bank in the North Sea for the reference year 2005. The model shows that 1) ± 2°C changes from the current level mainly influence the seasonal patterns and not the relative occurrence of the two species, 2) changes due to oceanic inflow mainly appeared in the northern and southern part of the North Sea connected to the NE Atlantic and not in the central part and 3) the abundance of Calanus species were very sensitive to the degree of overwintering within the North Sea because it allows them to utilize the spring bloom more efficiently and independently of the timing and amount of oceanic inflow. The combination of lower temperatures, higher overwintering and oceanic inflow simulating the situation in the 1960s largely favoured C. finmarchicus and their relative contribution to Calanus spp. increased from 40% in the reference year to 72%. The +2°C scenario suggest that in a warmer future, C. finmarchicus is likely to decline and C. helgolandicus abundance will probably continue to increase in some areas