As assessment of power system vulnerability to release of carbon fibers during commercial aviation accidents

The vulnerability of a power distribution system in Bedford and Lexington, Massachusetts to power outages as a result of exposure to carbon fibers released in a commercial aviation accident in 1993 was examined. Possible crash scenarios at Logan Airport based on current operational data and estimated carbon fiber usage levels were used to predict exposure levels and occurrence probabilities. The analysis predicts a mean time between carbon fiber induced power outages of 2300 years with an expected annual consequence of 0.7 persons losing power. In comparison to historical outage data for the system, this represents a 0.007% increase in outage rate and 0.07% increase in consequence

Multiculturalism: A Challenge to Two Myths of Liberalism

This paper sketches a brief account of multiculturalism in order to distinguish it from other positions that have been under attack recently. Following this, we address two prevalent and diametrically opposed criticisms of multiculturalism, namely, that multiculturalism is relativistic, on the one hand, and that it is absolutist, on the other. Both of these criticisms, we argue, simply mask liberal democratic theory's myth- begotten attempt to resolve the tension between the one and the many. Multiculturalism challenges the myths of meritocracy and abstract individualism which underlie liberalism; properly understood, it evades the criticisms often hurled at it

Econometric Inference, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Superior Information

This paper presents and assesses a procedure to estimate conventional parameters characterizing fluctuations at the business cycle frequency, when the economic agents' information set is superior to the econometrician's one. Specifically, we first generalize the conditions under which the econometrician can estimate these "cyclical fluctuation" parameters from augmented laws of motion for forcing variables that fully recover the agents' superior information. Second, we document the econometric properties of the estimates when the augmented laws of motion are possibly misspecified. Third, we assess the ability of certain information criteria to detect the presence of superior information.Block bootstrap, Hidden variables, laws of motion for forcing variables, Monte Carlo simulations

Equity Premia and State-Dependent Risks

This paper analyzes the empirical relations between equity premia and state-dependent consumption and market risks. These relations are derived from a flexible specification of the CCAPM with mixture distribution, which admits the existence of two regimes. Focusing on the market return, we find that the consumption and market risks are priced in each state, and the responses of expected equity premia to these risks are state dependent. Extending to various portfolio returns, we show that the responses to downside consumption risks are the most important, they are almost always statistically larger than the responses to upside consumption risks, and they are much larger for firms having smaller sizes and facing more financial distresses.Mixture of truncated normals, downside and upside consumption and market risks

Macroeconomic Effects of Terrorist Shocks in Israel

This paper estimates a structural vector autoregression model to assess the dynamic effects of terrorism on output and prices in Israel over the post-1985 period. Long-run restrictions are used to obtain an interpretation of the effects of terrorism in terms of aggregate demand and supply curves. The empirical responses of output and prices suggest that the immediate effects of terrorism are similar to those associated with a negative demand shock. Such leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve is consistent with the adverse effects of terrorism on most components of aggregate expenditure, which have been documented in previous studies. In contrast, the long-term consequences of terrorism are similar to those related to a negative supply shock. Such leftward shift of the long-run aggregate supply curve suggests the potential existence of adverse effects of terrorism on the determinants of potential output, which have not been considered so far.Goods market, output, price, and terrorist indices, structural vector autoregressions, long-run identifying restrictions, dynamic responses and variance decompositions