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Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits
Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, but which are predicted to provide sub-optimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios
Effect of earthworms on soil physico-hydraulic and chemical properties, herbage production, and wheat growth on arable land converted to ley
Effects of earthworms on soil physico-hydraulic properties, herbage production and wheat growth in long-term arable soils following conversion to ley were investigated. Seven intact soil monoliths were collected from each of four arable fields. One monolith per field served as a control. The other six were defaunated by deep-freezing; three were left defaunated (DeF) and three (DeF+E) were repopulated with earthworms to mimic pasture field density and diversity. The monoliths were planted with a grass-clover ley and inserted into pre-established ley strips in their original fields for 12 months. Hydraulic conductivity measurements at -0.5 cm tension (K0.5) were taken five times over the year. K0.5 significantly increased in summer 2017 and spring 2018 and decreased in winter 2017-18. K0.5 was significantly greater (47%) for DeF+E than DeF monoliths. By the end of the experiment, pores >1 mm diameter made a significantly greater contribution to water flow in DeF+E (98%) than DeF (95%) monoliths. After only a year of arable to ley conversion, soil bulk density significantly decreased (by 6%), and organic matter (OM) content increased (by 29%) in the DeF treatments relative to the arable soil. Earthworms improved soil quality further. Compared to DeF monoliths, DeF+E monoliths had significantly increased water-holding capacity (by 9%), plant-available water (by 21%), OM content (by 9%), grass-clover shoot dry biomass (by 58%), water-stable aggregates > 250 µm (by 15%) and total N (by 3.5%). In a wheat bioassay following the field experiment, significantly more biomass (20%) was produced on DeF+E than DeF monolith soil, likely due to the changed soil physico-hydraulic properties. Our results show that earthworms play a significant role in improvements to soil quality and functions brought about by arable to ley conversion, and that augmenting depleted earthworm populations can help the restoration of soil qualities adversely impacted by intensive agriculture