Political incumbency effects in India: a regional analysis

The significance of a study of political incumbency and the factors influencing it stems from the fact that it directly affects the behaviour of the incumbent political party and its accountability to the electorate. We use data on Parliamentary Elections in India from 1980 to 2014 to tease out evidence of incumbency advantage. We employ Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to estimate the incumbency effect. Our results indicate the absence of any incumbency effect when considering all elections in India together. This finding is at odds with the research reported so far. To explain our contrary result, we drilled down deeper to obtain a more granular view of the incumbency effect in India. We do this across various regions of India. The results show that north Indian states generally show strong evidence of incumbency disadvantage while south Indian states show strong evidence of incumbency advantage. We also show that incumbency advantage has increased over time

Telemedicine-enabled accelerated discharge of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 to isolation in repurposed hotel rooms.

No abstract availabl

Urgent challenges in implementing live attenuated influenza vaccine.

Conflicting reports have emerged about the effectiveness of the live attenuated influenza vaccine. The live attenuated influenza vaccine appears to protect particularly poorly against currently circulating H1N1 viruses that are derived from the 2009 pandemic H1N1 viruses. During the 2015-16 influenza season, when pandemic H1N1 was the predominant virus, studies from the USA reported a complete lack of effectiveness of the live vaccine in children. This finding led to a crucial decision in the USA to recommend that the live vaccine not be used in 2016-17 and to switch to the inactivated influenza vaccine. Other countries, including the UK, Canada, and Finland, however, have continued to recommend the use of the live vaccine. This policy divergence and uncertainty has far reaching implications for the entire global community, given the importance of the production capabilities of the live attenuated influenza vaccine for pandemic preparedness. In this Personal View, we discuss possible explanations for the observed reduced effectiveness of the live attenuated influenza vaccine and highlight the underpinning scientific questions. Further research to understand the reasons for these observations is essential to enable informed public health policy and commercial decisions about vaccine production and development in coming years

Interpreting Tuberculin Skin Tests in a Population With a High Prevalence of HIV, Tuberculosis, and Nonspecific Tuberculin Sensitivity

Understanding the epidemiology and clinical course of tuberculosis is hampered by the absence of a perfect test for latent tuberculosis infection. The tuberculin skin test (TST) is widely used but suffers poor specificity in those receiving the bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccine and poor sensitivity in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections. TST responses for a target population in Harare, Zimbabwe (HIV prevalence, 21%), recruited in 2005–2006, were interpreted by using a separate calibration population in Harare, for which interferon-gamma release assays (enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISpot)) results were also known. Statistical fitting of the responses in the calibration population allowed computation of the probability that an individual in the target population with a given TST and HIV result would have tested ELISpot positive. From this, estimates of the prevalence of tuberculosis infection, and optimal TST cutpoints to minimize misdiagnosis, were computed for different assumptions about ELISpot performance. Different assumptions about the sensitivity and specificity of ELISpot gave a 40%–57% prevalence of tuberculosis infection in the target population (including HIV-infected individuals) and optimal TST cutpoints typically in the 10 mm–20 mm range. However, the optimal cutpoint for HIV-infected individuals was consistently 0 mm. This calibration method may provide a valuable tool for interpreting TST results in other populations

fastlin: an ultra-fast program for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex lineage typing

SUMMARY: Fastlin is a bioinformatics tool designed for rapid Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) lineage typing. It utilizes an ultra-fast alignment-free approach to detect previously identified barcode single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with specific MTBC lineages. In a comprehensive benchmarking against existing tools, fastlin demonstrated high accuracy and significantly faster running times. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: fastlin is freely available at https://github.com/rderelle/fastlin and can easily be installed using Conda

P109 The impact of tb nice guidance on resource capacity and contact screening outcomes: a retrospective, observational study within a central london tb centre

Introduction and objectives: Recently published NICE guidance has significantly expanded the approach to adult tuberculosis (TB) contact screening by recommending tuberculin skin testing (TST) for pulmonary and laryngeal contacts only, increasing the age threshold for screening and treatment to 65 years and defining a positive TST as induration ≥5 mm, regardless of BCG vaccination status. Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) is recommended only in situations where more evidence of infection is needed. Our institution has previously adopted an approach comprising a chest radiograph, TST and IGRA. The aim of our study was to evaluate the impact of NICE guidance on screening outcomes and resource capacity by applying the criteria to a well-defined historic cohort of TB contacts. Methods: This was a retrospective, observational study carried out at a central London teaching hospital. The study population comprised 593 consecutive, adult TB contacts screened between 1/1/2008 and 31/12/2010. Data was collected through a retrospective review of TST and IGRA tests. Results: Of the 593 contacts screened, 358 pulmonary contacts had TST and IGRA results. 56% had a TST ≥5 mm, regardless of BCG status, qualifying them for treatment as per the new NICE guidance. Of these, 61% were IGRA negative (discordant) and may therefore include false positive diagnoses, resulting in the potential for over treatment. In those with TST 5–14 mm, discordance rises to 84%. Conversely, 6% of those with TST < 5 mm are IGRA positive representing potentially missed cases. 16% of screened individuals were contacts of extra pulmonary TB. Not screening this group would reduce the demand for outpatient appointments by 151* in our cohort. In contrast, testing contacts > 35 years would require capacity for an additional 165* appointments. Furthermore, there were 162 additional LTBI cases in comparison to previous guidance requiring an additional 648* appointments. 72% of this group were IGRA negative. (*Approximate) Conclusions: Our results show the revised guidance will require increased resource capacity largely due to more patients being classified as having latent TB. In addition to workforce planning to meet these demands, further debate is needed to decide if this new approach truly reduces the incidence of active TB or results in unnecessary treatment

Engaging with civil society to improve access to LTBI screening for new migrants in England: a qualitative study

SETTING: The latent tuberculous infection (LTBI) programme in England, UK, offers testing and treatment to new migrants from high tuberculosis incidence countries. However, the rates of LTBI testing, treatment acceptance and completion are suboptimal and appropriate access should be improved. OBJECTIVE: To gain insight from the community, community-based organisations (CBOs) and public sector stakeholders on interventions that facilitate collaboration to improve health care outreach and delivery. DESIGN: Three stakeholder meetings and five focus group discussions were held using thematic analysis to identify themes arising from participants' perspectives. RESULTS: Four overarching themes emerged from the discussions. These were related to capacity of service providers, collaboration between stakeholders, migrant cultures and trust between migrants and service providers, and highlighted the complementary skill sets that different sectors bring to the collaboration, as well as the barriers that need to be surmounted. Stigma could be reduced by making LTBI testing routine. Community members could act as champions of health promotion to raise awareness on LTBI testing, and provide a bridge between communities and primary care services. CONCLUSION: Public service providers, community members and CBOs are willing to collaborate to support primary care delivery of testing for LTBI and other communicable and non-communicable diseases. Policy and commissioning support are needed to facilitate this collaboration

In Vivo and In Vitro Effects of Antituberculosis Treatment on Mycobacterial Interferon-γ T Cell Response

Background: In recent years, the impact of antituberculous treatment on interferon (IFN)-c response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigens has been widely investigated, but the results have been controversial. The objective of the present study was: i) to evaluate longitudinal changes of IFN-c response to M. tuberculosis-specific antigens in TB patients during antituberculous treatment by using the QuantiFERON-TB Gold (QFT-G) assay; ii) to compare the differences in T-cell response after a short or prolonged period of stimulation with mycobacterial antigens; iii) to assess the CD4+ and CD8+ T cells with effector/memory and central/memory phenotype; iv) to investigate the direct in vitro effects of antituberculous drugs on the secretion of IFN-c. Principal Findings: 38 TB patients was evaluated at baseline and at month 2 and 4 of treatment and at month 6 (treatment completion). 27 (71%) patients had a QFT-G reversion (positive to negative) at the end of therapy, while 11 (29%) TB patients remained QFT-G positive at the end of therapy. Among the 11 patients with persistent positive QFT-G results, six had a complete response to the treatment, while the remaining 5 patients did not have a resolution of the disease. All 27 patients who became QFT-G negative had a complete clinical and microbiological recovery of the TB disease. In these patients the release of IFN-c is absent even after a prolonged 6-day incubation with both ESAT-6 and CFP-10 antigens and the percentage of effector/memory T-cells phenotype was markedly lower than subjects with persistent positive QFT-G results. The in vitro study showed that antituberculous drugs did not exert any inhibitory effect on IFN-c production within the range of therapeutically achievable concentrations. Conclusions: The present study suggests that the decrease in the M. tuberculosis-specific T cells responses following successful anti-TB therapy may have a clinical value as a supplemental tool for the monitoring of the efficacy of pharmacologic intervention for active TB. In addition, the antituberculous drugs do not have any direct down-regulatory effect on the specific IFN-c response