Geometric and projection effects in Kramers-Moyal analysis

Kramers-Moyal coefficients provide a simple and easily visualized method with which to analyze stochastic time series, particularly nonlinear ones. One mechanism that can affect the estimation of the coefficients is geometric projection effects. For some biologically-inspired examples, these effects are predicted and explored with a non-stochastic projection operator method, and compared with direct numerical simulation of the systems' Langevin equations. General features and characteristics are identified, and the utility of the Kramers-Moyal method discussed. Projections of a system are in general non-Markovian, but here the Kramers-Moyal method remains useful, and in any case the primary examples considered are found to be close to Markovian.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Solid behavior of anisotropic rigid frictionless bead assemblies

We investigate the structure and mechanical behavior of assemblies of frictionless, nearly rigid equal-sized beads, in the quasistatic limit, by numerical simulation. Three different loading paths are explored: triaxial compression, triaxial extension and simple shear. Generalizing recent results [1], we show that the material, despite rather strong finite sample size effects, is able to sustain a finite deviator stress in the macroscopic limit, along all three paths, without dilatancy. The shape of the yield surface is adequately described by a Lade-Duncan (rather than Mohr-Coulomb) criterion. While scalar state variables keep the same values as in isotropic systems, fabric and force anisotropies are each characterized by one parameter and are in one-to-one correspondence with principal stress ratio along all three loading paths.The anisotropy of the pair correlation function extends to a distance between bead surfaces on the order of 10% of the diameter. The tensor of elastic moduli is shown to possess a nearly singular, uniaxial structure related to stress anisotropy. Possible stress-strain relations in monotonic loading paths are also discussed

A Binary-Medium Constitutive Model for Artificially Structured Soils Based on the Disturbed State Concept and Homogenization Theory

Triaxial compression tests were carried out on artificially structured soil samples at confining pressures of 25, 37.5, 50, 100, 200, and 400 kPa. A binary-medium constitutive model for artificially structured soils is proposed based on the experimental results, the disturbed state concept (DSC), and homogenization theory. A new constitutive model for artificially structured soils was formulated by regarding the structured soils as a binary medium consisting of bonded blocks and weakened bands. The bonded blocks are idealized as bonded elements whose deformation properties are described by elastic materials, and the weakened bands are idealized as frictional elements whose deformation properties are described by the Lade-Duncan model. By introducing the structural parameters of breakage ratio and local strain coefficient, the nonuniform distribution of stress and strain within a representative volume element can be given based on the homogenization theory of heterogeneous materials. The methods for determination of the model parameters are given on the basis of experimental results. Comparisons of predictions with experimental data demonstrate that the new model provides satisfactory qualitative and quantitative modeling of many important features of artificially structured soils

Eight grand challenges in socio-environmental systems modeling

Modeling is essential to characterize and explore complex societal and environmental issues in systematic and collaborative ways. Socio-environmental systems (SES) modeling integrates knowledge and perspectives into conceptual and computational tools that explicitly recognize how human decisions affect the environment. Depending on the modeling purpose, many SES modelers also realize that involvement of stakeholders and experts is fundamental to support social learning and decision-making processes for achieving improved environmental and social outcomes. The contribution of this paper lies in identifying and formulating grand challenges that need to be overcome to accelerate the development and adaptation of SES modeling. Eight challenges are delineated: bridging epistemologies across disciplines; multi-dimensional uncertainty assessment and management; scales and scaling issues; combining qualitative and quantitative methods and data; furthering the adoption and impacts of SES modeling on policy; capturing structural changes; representing human dimensions in SES; and leveraging new data types and sources. These challenges limit our ability to effectively use SES modeling to provide the knowledge and information essential for supporting decision making. Whereas some of these challenges are not unique to SES modeling and may be pervasive in other scientific fields, they still act as barriers as well as research opportunities for the SES modeling community. For each challenge, we outline basic steps that can be taken to surmount the underpinning barriers. Thus, the paper identifies priority research areas in SES modeling, chiefly related to progressing modeling products, processes and practices

The structure of Chariklo's rings from stellar occultations

Two narrow and dense rings (called C1R and C2R) were discovered around the Centaur object (10199) Chariklo during a stellar occultation observed on 2013 June 3. Following this discovery, we planned observations of several occultations by Chariklo's system in order to better characterize the physical properties of the ring and main body. Here, we use 12 successful occulations by Chariklo observed between 2014 and 2016. They provide ring profiles (physical width, opacity, edge structure) and constraints on the radii and pole position. Our new observations are currently consistent with the circular ring solution and pole position, to within the $\pm 3.3$ km formal uncertainty for the ring radii derived by Braga-Ribas et al. The six resolved C1R profiles reveal significant width variations from $\sim 5$ to 7.5 km. The width of the fainter ring C2R is less constrained, and may vary between 0.1 and 1 km. The inner and outer edges of C1R are consistent with infinitely sharp boundaries, with typical upper limits of one kilometer for the transition zone between the ring and empty space. No constraint on the sharpness of C2R's edges is available. A 1$\sigma$ upper limit of $\sim 20$ m is derived for the equivalent width of narrow (physical width <4 km) rings up to distances of 12,000 km, counted in the ring plane

A laboratory study of anisotropic geomaterials incorporating recent micromechanical understanding

This paper presents an experimental investigation revisiting the anisotropic stress–strain–strength behaviour of geomaterials in drained monotonic shear using hollow cylinder apparatus. The test programme has been designed to cover the effect of material anisotropy, preshearing, material density and intermediate principal stress on the behaviour of Leighton Buzzard sand. Experiments have also been performed on glass beads to understand the effect of particle shape. This paper explains phenomenological observations based on recently acquired understanding in micromechanics, with attention focused on strength anisotropy and deformation non-coaxiality, i.e. non-coincidence between the principal stress direction and the principal strain rate direction. The test results demonstrate that the effects of initial anisotropy produced during sample preparation are significant. The stress–strain–strength behaviour of the specimen shows strong dependence on the principal stress direction. Preloading history, material density and particle shape are also found to be influential. In particular, it was found that non-coaxiality is more significant in presheared specimens. The observations on the strength anisotropy and deformation non-coaxiality were explained based on the stress–force–fabric relationship. It was observed that intermediate principal stress parameter b(b = (σ2 − σ3)/(σ1 − σ3)) has a significant effect on the non-coaxiality of sand. The lower the b-value, the higher the degree of non-coaxiality is induced. Visual inspection of shear band formed at the end of HCA testing has also been presented. The inclinations of the shear bands at different loading directions can be predicted well by taking account of the relative direction of the mobilized planes to the bedding plane

Identifying a Safe and Just Corridor for People and the Planet

Keeping the Earth system in a stable and resilient state, to safeguard Earth's life support systems while ensuring that Earth's benefits, risks, and related responsibilities are equitably shared, constitutes the grand challenge for human development in the Anthropocene. Here, we describe a framework that the recently formed Earth Commission will use to define and quantify target ranges for a “safe and just corridor” that meets these goals. Although “safe” and “just” Earth system targets are interrelated, we see safe as primarily referring to a stable Earth system and just targets as being associated with meeting human needs and reducing exposure to risks. To align safe and just dimensions, we propose to address the equity dimensions of each safe target for Earth system regulating systems and processes. The more stringent of the safe or just target ranges then defines the corridor. Identifying levers of social transformation aimed at meeting the safe and just targets and challenges associated with translating the corridor to actors at multiple scales present scope for future work