Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes

The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 °C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.F.E. acknowledges financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (http://www.conacyt.gob.mx) under grant CONACYT-310026, as well as from PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. (CONACYT-310026 - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia; PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Institutional reform and FDI decision in transition economies: a qualitative study of Syria

The article considers the impact of institutional reform on the decision of foreign enterprises and foreign entrepreneurs to directly invest in the transition economy of Syria. It responds to the calls for more open research design that can go beyond the borders of the quantitative findings of previous econometric research by adopting a qualitative research strategy. The results reveal that institutional reforms enhanced Syria’s attractiveness to foreign direct investment. Institutional barriers proved to be less daunting to foreign investors whose backgrounds were culturally similar to that of Syria and/or already had experience in Syria or in a similar type of economy. The impact of background similarity and previous experience in similar contexts appeared to be less important when the foreign investor was a multinational enterprise than for individual entrepreneur. Moreover, these factors also appeared to be less important for large enterprises compared to small enterprises

Safety of a new extensively hydrolysed formula in children with cow's milk protein allergy: a double blind crossover study

BACKGROUND: Formulae for infants with cow's milk protein allergy (CMA) should be based on extensively hydrolysed protein. 'Extensively' however is not strictly defined. Differences in molecular weight and peptide chain length may affect its clinical outcome. We studied the safety of a new extensively hydrolysed casein based formula (Frisolac Allergycare(®): FAC) for children with IgE mediated CMA. METHODS: Thirty children, aged 1.5 – 14.8 years old (median 4.9 years) with persistent CMA were enrolled in this double-blind reference product (Nutramigen(®): NUT) controlled crossover study. All had positive skin prick tests (SPT) and IgE mediated allergy, showing immediate reactions after ingestion of small amounts of milk. Twenty-five children also had positive radio allergen sorbent tests (RAST) to cow's milk. Formulae provided consisted of 80% elementary formula in combination with 20% reference or test product. Crossover periods lasted for two weeks. From both products molecular weight (MALDI-TOF method and HPLC) and peptide chain length distribution (adapted Edman degradation) were determined. RESULTS: Maximum molecular weights of NUT and FAC are 2.1 and 2.56 kDa, respectively. The contribution of free amino acids and small peptides <0.5 kDa is 46% for FAC and 53% for NUT. About 50% of the protein fraction of both products consists of peptides longer than four amino acids. Three children did not complete the study. The other children all tolerated FAC very well; no adverse reactions were reported. CONCLUSIONS: The new extensively hydrolysed casein-based formula (FAC) can safely be used in children with IgE mediated cow's milk allergy

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

Despite the continued increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in this century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus of global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method to unravel mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing the observed history of sea surface temperature over the deep tropical Pacific in a climate model, in addition to radiative forcing. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (a period including the current hiatus and an accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern and prolonged drought in southern North America. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La Niña-like decadal cooling. While similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase

Processing Ordinality and Quantity: The Case of Developmental Dyscalculia

In contrast to quantity processing, up to date, the nature of ordinality has received little attention from researchers despite the fact that both quantity and ordinality are embodied in numerical information. Here we ask if there are two separate core systems that lie at the foundations of numerical cognition: (1) the traditionally and well accepted numerical magnitude system but also (2) core system for representing ordinal information. We report two novel experiments of ordinal processing that explored the relation between ordinal and numerical information processing in typically developing adults and adults with developmental dyscalculia (DD). Participants made “ordered” or “non-ordered” judgments about 3 groups of dots (non-symbolic numerical stimuli; in Experiment 1) and 3 numbers (symbolic task: Experiment 2). In contrast to previous findings and arguments about quantity deficit in DD participants, when quantity and ordinality are dissociated (as in the current tasks), DD participants exhibited a normal ratio effect in the non-symbolic ordinal task. They did not show, however, the ordinality effect. Ordinality effect in DD appeared only when area and density were randomized, but only in the descending direction. In the symbolic task, the ordinality effect was modulated by ratio and direction in both groups. These findings suggest that there might be two separate cognitive representations of ordinal and quantity information and that linguistic knowledge may facilitate estimation of ordinal information

Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed

Tetradecylthioacetic Acid Increases Hepatic Mitochondrial β-Oxidation and Alters Fatty Acid Composition in a Mouse Model of Chronic Inflammation

The administration of tetradecylthioacetic acid (TTA), a hypolipidemic and anti-inflammatory modified bioactive fatty acid, has in several experiments based on high fat diets been shown to improve lipid transport and utilization. It was suggested that increased mitochondrial and peroxisomal fatty acid oxidation in the liver of Wistar rats results in reduced plasma triacylglycerol (TAG) levels. Here we assessed the potential of TTA to prevent tumor necrosis factor (TNF) α-induced lipid modifications in human TNFα (hTNFα) transgenic mice. These mice are characterized by reduced β-oxidation and changed fatty acid composition in the liver. The effect of dietary treatment with TTA on persistent, low-grade hTNFα overexpression in mice showed a beneficial effect through decreasing TAG plasma concentrations and positively affecting saturated and monounsaturated fatty acid proportions in the liver, leading to an increased anti-inflammatory fatty acid index in this group. We also observed an increase of mitochondrial β-oxidation in the livers of TTA treated mice. Concomitantly, there were enhanced plasma levels of carnitine, acetyl carnitine, propionyl carnitine, and octanoyl carnitine, no changed levels in trimethyllysine and palmitoyl carnitine, and a decreased level of the precursor for carnitine, called γ-butyrobetaine. Nevertheless, TTA administration led to increased hepatic TAG levels that warrant further investigations to ascertain that TTA may be a promising candidate for use in the amelioration of inflammatory disorders characterized by changed lipid metabolism due to raised TNFα levels

A transcriptomic snapshot of early molecular communication between Pasteuria penetrans and Meloidogyne incognita

© The Author(s). 2018Background: Southern root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita (Kofoid and White, 1919), Chitwood, 1949 is a key pest of agricultural crops. Pasteuria penetrans is a hyperparasitic bacterium capable of suppressing the nematode reproduction, and represents a typical coevolved pathogen-hyperparasite system. Attachment of Pasteuria endospores to the cuticle of second-stage nematode juveniles is the first and pivotal step in the bacterial infection. RNA-Seq was used to understand the early transcriptional response of the root-knot nematode at 8 h post Pasteuria endospore attachment. Results: A total of 52,485 transcripts were assembled from the high quality (HQ) reads, out of which 582 transcripts were found differentially expressed in the Pasteuria endospore encumbered J2 s, of which 229 were up-regulated and 353 were down-regulated. Pasteuria infection caused a suppression of the protein synthesis machinery of the nematode. Several of the differentially expressed transcripts were putatively involved in nematode innate immunity, signaling, stress responses, endospore attachment process and post-attachment behavioral modification of the juveniles. The expression profiles of fifteen selected transcripts were validated to be true by the qRT PCR. RNAi based silencing of transcripts coding for fructose bisphosphate aldolase and glucosyl transferase caused a reduction in endospore attachment as compared to the controls, whereas, silencing of aspartic protease and ubiquitin coding transcripts resulted in higher incidence of endospore attachment on the nematode cuticle. Conclusions: Here we provide evidence of an early transcriptional response by the nematode upon infection by Pasteuria prior to root invasion. We found that adhesion of Pasteuria endospores to the cuticle induced a down-regulated protein response in the nematode. In addition, we show that fructose bisphosphate aldolase, glucosyl transferase, aspartic protease and ubiquitin coding transcripts are involved in modulating the endospore attachment on the nematode cuticle. Our results add new and significant information to the existing knowledge on early molecular interaction between M. incognita and P. penetrans.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Inter-scan reproducibility of coronary calcium measurement using Multi Detector-Row Computed Tomography (MDCT)

Purpose: To assess inter-scan reproducibility of coronary calcium measurements obtained from Multi Detector-Row CT (MDCT) images and to evaluate whether this reproducibility is affected by different measurement protocols, slice thickness, cardiovascular risk factors and/or technical variables. Design: Cross-sectional study with repeated measurements. Materials and methods: The study population comprised 76 healthy women. Coronary calcium was assessed in these women twice in one session using 16-MDCT (Philips Mx 8000 IDT 16). Images were reconstructed with 1.5 mm slice thickness and 3.0 mm slice thickness. The 76 repeated scans were scored. The Agatston score, a volume measurement and a mass measurement were assessed. Reproducibility was determined by estimation of mean, absolute, relative difference, the weighted kappa value for agreement and the Intra-class correlation coefficient (ICCC). Results: Fifty-five participants (72.4%) had a coronary calcification of more than zero in Agatston (1.5 mm slice thickness). The reproducibility of coronary calcium measurements between scans in terms of ranking was excellent with Intra-class correlation coefficients of >0.98, and kappa values above 0.80. The absolute difference in calcium score between scans increased with increasing calcium levels, indicating that measurement error increases with increasing calcium levels. However, no relation was found between the mean difference in scores and calcium levels, indicating that the increase in measurement error is likely to result in random misclassification in calcium score. Reproducibility results were similar for 1.5 mm slices and for 3.0 mm slices, and equal for Agatston, volume and mass measurements. Conclusion: Inter-scan reproducibilility of measurement of coronary calcium using images from MDCT is excellent, irrespective of slice thickness and type of calcium parameter

Autoimmune and autoinflammatory mechanisms in uveitis

The eye, as currently viewed, is neither immunologically ignorant nor sequestered from the systemic environment. The eye utilises distinct immunoregulatory mechanisms to preserve tissue and cellular function in the face of immune-mediated insult; clinically, inflammation following such an insult is termed uveitis. The intra-ocular inflammation in uveitis may be clinically obvious as a result of infection (e.g. toxoplasma, herpes), but in the main infection, if any, remains covert. We now recognise that healthy tissues including the retina have regulatory mechanisms imparted by control of myeloid cells through receptors (e.g. CD200R) and soluble inhibitory factors (e.g. alpha-MSH), regulation of the blood retinal barrier, and active immune surveillance. Once homoeostasis has been disrupted and inflammation ensues, the mechanisms to regulate inflammation, including T cell apoptosis, generation of Treg cells, and myeloid cell suppression in situ, are less successful. Why inflammation becomes persistent remains unknown, but extrapolating from animal models, possibilities include differential trafficking of T cells from the retina, residency of CD8(+) T cells, and alterations of myeloid cell phenotype and function. Translating lessons learned from animal models to humans has been helped by system biology approaches and informatics, which suggest that diseased animals and people share similar changes in T cell phenotypes and monocyte function to date. Together the data infer a possible cryptic infectious drive in uveitis that unlocks and drives persistent autoimmune responses, or promotes further innate immune responses. Thus there may be many mechanisms in common with those observed in autoinflammatory disorders