Champions, converts, doubters, and defectors: the impact of shifting perceptions on momentum for change

Maintaining momentum is a key influence on the ultimate success of large-scale change. In this paper, we develop theory to explain how stable vs. shifting change-supportive perceptions over time differentially influence the perceived momentum associated with goal-directed change (i.e., change-based momentum). We use cross-level polynomial regression and data obtained early and one year later within an organization implementing a lean manufacturing transformation to model changes in individual perceptions. Results suggest that momentum perceptions are higher for “Champions” (stable and high perceptions over time) as compared to “Converts” (increasing perceptions over time), but momentum perceptions are lower for “Defectors” (decreasing perceptions over time) as compared to “Doubters” (stable and low perceptions over time). We find that even if participants converge upon change-supportive perceptions later in the change process, early divergent perceptions influence subsequent momentum for the change. These findings highlight the important role of temporal shifts in perceptions for organizational change processes

Sharp upturn of life expectancy in the Netherlands: effect of more health care for the elderly?

During the 1980s and 1990s life expectancy at birth has risen only slowly in the Netherlands. In 2002, however, the rise in life expectancy suddenly accelerated. We studied the possible causes of this remarkable development. Mortality data by age, gender and cause of death were analyzed using life table methods and age-period-cohort modeling. Trends in determinants of mortality (including health care delivery) were compared with trends in mortality. Two-thirds of the increase in life expectancy at birth since 2002 were due to declines in mortality among those aged 65 and over. Declines in mortality reflected a period rather than a cohort effect, and were seen for a wide range of causes of death. Favorable changes in mortality determinants coinciding with the acceleration of mortality decline were mainly seen within the health care system. Health care expenditure rose rapidly after 2001, and was accompanied by a sharp rise of specialist visits, drug prescriptions, hospital admissions and surgical procedures among the elderly. A decline of deaths following non-treatment decisions suggests a change towards more active treatment of elderly patients. Our findings are consistent with the idea that the sharp upturn of life expectancy in the Netherlands was at least partly due to a sharp increase in health care for the elderly, and has been facilitated by a relaxation of budgetary constraints in the health care system

Health system outcomes and determinants amenable to public health in industrialized countries: a pooled, cross-sectional time series analysis

BACKGROUND: Few studies have tried to assess the combined cross-sectional and temporal contributions of a more comprehensive set of amenable factors to population health outcomes for wealthy countries during the last 30 years of the 20(th )century. We assessed the overall ecological associations between mortality and factors amenable to public health. These amenable factors included addictive and nutritional lifestyle, air quality, public health spending, healthcare coverage, and immunizations. METHODS: We used a pooled cross-sectional, time series analysis with corrected fixed effects regression models in an ecological design involving eighteen member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development during the period 1970 to 1999. RESULTS: Alcohol, tobacco, and fat consumption, and sometimes, air pollution were significantly associated with higher all-cause mortality and premature death. Immunizations, health care coverage, fruit/vegetable and protein consumption, and collective health expenditure had negative effects on mortality and premature death, even after controlling for the elderly, density of practicing physicians, doctor visits and per capita GDP. However, tobacco, air pollution, and fruit/vegetable intake were sometimes sensitive to adjustments. CONCLUSION: Mortality and premature deaths could be improved by focusing on factors that are amenable to public health policies. Tackling these issues should be reflected in the ongoing assessments of health system performance

Improving Health and Building Human Capital Through an Effective Primary Care System

To improve population health, one must put emphasis on reducing health inequities and enhancing health protection and disease prevention, and early diagnosis and treatment of diseases by tackling the determinants of health at the downstream, midstream, and upstream levels. There is strong theoretical and empirical evidence for the association between strong national primary care systems and improved health indicators. The setting approach to promote health such as healthy schools, healthy cities also aims to address the determinants of health and build the capacity of individuals, families, and communities to create strong human and social capitals. The notion of human and social capitals begins to offer explanations why certain communities are unable to achieve better health than other communities with similar demography. In this paper, a review of studies conducted in different countries illustrate how a well-developed primary health care system would reduce all causes of mortalities, improve health status, reduce hospitalization, and be cost saving despite a disparity in socioeconomic conditions. The intervention strategy recommended in this paper is developing a model of comprehensive primary health care system by joining up different settings integrating the efforts of different parties within and outside the health sector. Different components of primary health care team would then work more closely with individuals and families and different healthy settings. This synergistic effect would help to strengthen human and social capital development. The model can then combine the efforts of upstream, midstream, and downstream approaches to improve population health and reduce health inequity. Otherwise, health would easily be jeopardized as a result of rapid urbanization

Early star-forming galaxies and the reionization of the Universe

Star forming galaxies represent a valuable tracer of cosmic history. Recent observational progress with Hubble Space Telescope has led to the discovery and study of the earliest-known galaxies corresponding to a period when the Universe was only ~800 million years old. Intense ultraviolet radiation from these early galaxies probably induced a major event in cosmic history: the reionization of intergalactic hydrogen. New techniques are being developed to understand the properties of these most distant galaxies and determine their influence on the evolution of the universe.Comment: Review article appearing in Nature. This posting reflects a submitted version of the review formatted by the authors, in accordance with Nature publication policies. For the official, published version of the review, please see http://www.nature.com/nature/archive/index.htm

Rapid Evolution in the Most Luminous Galaxies During the First 900 Million Years

The first 900 million years (Myr) to redshift z~6 (the first seven per cent of the age of the Universe) remains largely unexplored for the formation of galaxies. Large samples of galaxies have been found at z~6, but detections at earlier times are uncertain and unreliable. It is not at all clear how galaxies built up from the first stars when the Universe was ~300 Myr old (z~12-15) to z~6, just 600 Myr later. Here we report the results of a search for galaxies at z~7-8, about 700 Myr after the Big Bang, using the deepest near-infrared and optical images ever taken. Under conservative selection criteria we find only one candidate galaxy at z~7-8, where ten would be expected if there were no evolution in the galaxy population between z~7-8 and z~6. Using less conservative criteria, there are four candidates, where 17 would be expected with no evolution. This demonstrates that very luminous galaxies are quite rare 700 Myr after the Big Bang. The simplest explanation is that the Universe is just too young to have built up many luminous galaxies at z~7-8 by the hierarchical merging of small galaxies.Comment: Accepted for publication in Nature, 20 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables (includes Supplementary Information), replaced to match version in pres

Availability and structure of primary medical care services and population health and health care indicators in England

BACKGROUND: It has been proposed that greater availability of primary medical care practitioners (GPs) contributes to better population health. We evaluated whether measures of the supply and structure of primary medical services are associated with health and health care indicators after adjusting for confounding. METHODS: Data for the supply and structure of primary medical services and the characteristics of registered patients were analysed for 99 health authorities in England in 1999. Health and health care indicators as dependent variables included standardised mortality ratios (SMR), standardised hospital admission rates, and conceptions under the age of 18 years. Linear regression analyses were adjusted for Townsend score, proportion of ethnic minorities and proportion of social class IV/ V. RESULTS: Higher proportions of registered rural patients and patients ≥ 75 years were associated with lower Townsend deprivation scores, with larger partnership sizes and with better health outcomes. A unit increase in partnership size was associated with a 4.2 (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 6.7) unit decrease in SMR for all-cause mortality at 15–64 years (P = 0.001). A 10% increase in single-handed practices was associated with a 1.5 (0.2 to 2.9) unit increase in SMR (P = 0.027). After additional adjustment for percent of rural and elderly patients, partnership size and proportion of single-handed practices, GP supply was not associated with SMR (-2.8, -6.9 to 1.3, P = 0.183). CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for confounding with health needs of populations, mortality is weakly associated with the degree of organisation of practices as represented by the partnership size but not with the supply of GPs

Effects and predictors of shoulder muscle massage for patients with posterior shoulder tightness

Background: Clinical approaches like mobilization, stretching, and/or massage may decrease shoulder tightness and improve symptoms in subjects with stiff shoulders. We investigated the effect and predictors of effectiveness of massage in the treatment of patients with posterior shoulder tightness. ;Methods: A randomized controlled trial was conducted in a hospital-based outpatient practice (orthopedic and rehabilitation). Forty-three women and 17 men (mean age = 54 years, range 43-73 years) with posterior shoulder tightness participated and were randomized into massage and control groups (n = 30 per group). A physical therapist provided the massage on the posterior deltoid, infraspinatus, and teres minor of the involved shoulder for 18 minutes [about 6 minutes for each muscle] two times a week for 4 weeks. For the control group, one therapist applied light hand touch on the muscles 10 minutes two times a week for 4 weeks. Glenohumeral internal rotation ROM, functional status, and muscle tightness were the main outcomes. Additionally, the potential factors on the effectiveness of massage were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression. For this analysis, patients with functional score improvement at least 20% after massage were considered responsive, and the others were considered nonresponsive. ;Results: Fifty-two patients completed the study (29 for the massage and 23 for the control). The overall mean internal rotation ROM increased significantly in the massage group compared to the control (54.9 degrees v.s. 34.9 degrees; P <= 0.001). There were 21 patients in the responsive group and 8 in the nonresponsive group. Among the factors, duration of symptoms, functional score, and posterior deltoid tightness were significant predictors of effectiveness of massage. ;Conclusions: Massage was an effective treatment for patients with posterior shoulder tightness, but was less effective in patients with longer duration of symptoms, higher functional limitation, and less posterior deltoid tightness

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives