Perturbation drives changing metapopulation dynamics in a top marine predator

Funding: O.E.G. was supported by the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland, funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant no. HR09011). E.L.C. was supported by a Newton Fellowship (Royal Society of London), Marie Curie Fellowship (EU Horizon2020) and a Rutherford Discovery Fellowship (Royal Society of New Zealand). A.J.H. and D.J.F.R. were supportedby NERC (grant no. SMRU 10/001).Metapopulation theory assumes a balance between local decays/extinctions and local growth/new colonisations. Here we investigate whether recent population declines across part of the UK harbour seal range represent normal metapopulation dynamics or are indicative of perturbations potentially threatening the metapopulation viability, using 20 years of population trends, location tracking data (n = 380), and UK-wide, multi-generational population genetic data (n = 269). First, we use microsatellite data to show that two genetic groups previously identified are distinct metapopulations: northern and southern. Then, we characterize the northern metapopulation dynamics in two different periods, before and after the start of regional declines (pre-/peri-perturbation). We identify source-sink dynamics across the northern metapopulation, with two putative source populations apparently supporting three likely sink populations, and a recent metapopulation-wide disruption of migration coincident with the perturbation. The northern metapopulation appears to be in decay, highlighting that changes in local populations can lead to radical alterations in the overall metapopulation's persistence and dynamics.PostprintPeer reviewe

Unemployment and Portfolio Choice: Does Persistence Matter?

We use a life cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice to study the effects of social security on the investment decisions of households for the European case. Our model is mainly based on the one developed by Cocco, Gomes, and Maenhout (2005). We extend it by unemployment risk using Markov chains to model the transition between different employment states. In contrast to most models in the life cycle literature, our model allows for three different states, namely employment, short-term as well as long-term unemployment. This allows us to examine the effects of persistence in the unemployment process on portfolio choice. Our main findings are, first, that in case of short-term unemployment only, social security systems as those established in the EU are able to offset the negative impact of unemployment risk on the portfolio-share invested in risky assets. Second, the simulation results reveal that when allowing for long-term unemployment the equity-share is suppressed, especially for young investors. We show that this negative effect of unemployment is mainly driven by its persistence

Utilization of focal therapy for patients discontinuing active surveillance of prostate cancer: Recommendations of an international Delphi consensus

BACKGROUND: With the advancement of imaging technology, focal therapy (FT) has been gaining acceptance for the treatment of select patients with localized prostate cancer (CaP). We aim to provide details of a formal physician consensus on the utilization of FT for patients with CaP who are discontinuing active surveillance (AS). METHODS: A 3-stage Delphi consensus on CaP and FT was conducted. Consensus was defined as agreement by ≥80% of physicians. An in-person meeting was attended by 17 panelists to formulate the consensus statement. RESULTS: Fifty-six respondents participated in this interdisciplinary consensus study (82% urologist, 16% radiologist, 2% radiation oncology). The participants confirmed that there is a role for FT in men discontinuing AS (48% strongly agree, 39% agree). The benefit of FT over radical therapy for men coming off AS is: less invasive (91%), has a greater likelihood to preserve erectile function (91%), has a greater likelihood to preserve urinary continence (91%), has fewer side effects (86%), and has early recovery post-treatment (80%). Patients will need to undergo mpMRI of the prostate and/or a saturation biopsy to determine if they are potential candidates for FT. Our limitations include respondent's biases and that the participants of this consensus may not represent the larger medical community. CONCLUSIONS: FT can be offered to men coming off AS between the age of 60 to 80 with grade group 2 localized cancer. This consensus from a multidisciplinary, multi-institutional, international expert panel provides a contemporary insight utilizing FT for CaP in select patients who are discontinuing AS

The illusion of competency versus the desirability of expertise: Seeking a common standard for support professions in sport

In this paper we examine and challenge the competency-based models which currently dominate accreditation and development systems in sport support disciplines, largely the sciences and coaching. Through consideration of exemplar shortcomings, the limitations of competency-based systems are presented as failing to cater for the complexity of decision making and the need for proactive experimentation essential to effective practice. To provide a better fit with the challenges of the various disciplines in their work with performers, an alternative approach is presented which focuses on the promotion, evaluation and elaboration of expertise. Such an approach resonates with important characteristics of professions, whilst also providing for the essential ‘shades of grey’ inherent in work with human participants. Key differences between the approaches are considered through exemplars of evaluation processes. The expertise-focused method, although inherently more complex, is seen as offering a less ambiguous and more positive route, both through more accurate representation of essential professional competence and through facilitation of future growth in proficiency and evolution of expertise in practice. Examples from the literature are also presented, offering further support for the practicalities of this approach

Oxidation of SQSTM1/p62 mediates the link between redox state and protein homeostasis

Cellular homoeostatic pathways such as macroautophagy (hereinafter autophagy) are regulated by basic mechanisms that are conserved throughout the eukaryotic kingdom. However, it remains poorly understood how these mechanisms further evolved in higher organisms. Here we describe a modification in the autophagy pathway in vertebrates, which promotes its activity in response to oxidative stress. We have identified two oxidation-sensitive cysteine residues in a prototypic autophagy receptor SQSTM1/p62, which allow activation of pro-survival autophagy in stress conditions. The Drosophila p62 homologue, Ref(2)P, lacks these oxidation-sensitive cysteine residues and their introduction into the protein increases protein turnover and stress resistance of flies, whereas perturbation of p62 oxidation in humans may result in age-related pathology. We propose that the redox-sensitivity of p62 may have evolved in vertebrates as a mechanism that allows activation of autophagy in response to oxidative stress to maintain cellular homoeostasis and increase cell survival.Peer reviewe

Invasion speeds for structured populations in fluctuating environments

We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly variable environments will be estimates of their rates of spatial spread and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Using stochastic, stage-structured, integro-difference equation models, we show analytically that invasion speeds are asymptotically normally distributed with a variance that decreases in time. We apply our methods to a simple juvenile-adult model with stochastic variation in reproduction and an illustrative example with published data for the perennial herb, \emph{Calathea ovandensis}. These examples buttressed by additional analysis reveal that increased variability in vital rates simultaneously slow down invasions yet generate greater uncertainty about rates of spatial spread. Moreover, while temporal autocorrelations in vital rates inflate variability in invasion speeds, the effect of these autocorrelations on the average invasion speed can be positive or negative depending on life history traits and how well vital rates ``remember'' the past

Oxidation of SQSTM1/p62 mediates the link between redox state and protein homeostasis

Cellular homoeostatic pathways such as macroautophagy (hereinafter autophagy) are regulated by basic mechanisms that are conserved throughout the eukaryotic kingdom. However, it remains poorly understood how these mechanisms further evolved in higher organisms. Here we describe a modification in the autophagy pathway in vertebrates, which promotes its activity in response to oxidative stress. We have identified two oxidation-sensitive cysteine residues in a prototypic autophagy receptor SQSTM1/p62, which allow activation of pro-survival autophagy in stress conditions. The Drosophila p62 homologue, Ref(2)P, lacks these oxidation-sensitive cysteine residues and their introduction into the protein increases protein turnover and stress resistance of flies, whereas perturbation of p62 oxidation in humans may result in age-related pathology. We propose that the redox-sensitivity of p62 may have evolved in vertebrates as a mechanism that allows activation of autophagy in response to oxidative stress to maintain cellular homoeostasis and increase cell survival

Associations between respiratory health outcomes and coal mine fire PM2.5 smoke exposure: a cross- sectional study

In 2014, wildfires ignited a fire in the Morwell open cut coal mine, Australia, which burned for six weeks. This study examined associations between self-reported respiratory outcomes in adults and mine fire-related PM2.5 smoke exposure. Self-reported data were collected as part of the Hazelwood Health Study Adult Survey. Eligible participants were adult residents of Morwell. Mine fire-related PM2.5 concentrations were provided by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Oceans & Atmosphere Flagship. Personalised mean 24-h and peak 12-h mine fire-related PM2.5 exposures were estimated for each participant. Data were analysed by multivariate logistic regression. There was some evidence of an association between respiratory outcomes and mine fire PM2.5 exposure. Chronic cough was associated with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.23) per 10 μg/m3 increment in mean PM2.5 and 1.07 (1.02 to 1.12) per 100 μg/m3 increment in peak PM2.5. Current wheeze was associated with peak PM2.5, OR = 1.06 (1.02 to 1.11) and chronic phlegm with mean PM2.5 OR = 1.10 (1.00 to 1.20). Coal mine PM2.5 smoke exposure was associated with increased odds of experiencing cough, phlegm and wheeze. Males, participants 18–64 years, and those residing in homes constructed from non-brick/concrete materials or homes with tin/metal roofs had higher estimated ORs. These findings contribute to the formation of public health policy responses