Long-term health-related and economic consequences of short-term outcomes in evaluation of perinatal interventions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many perinatal interventions are performed to improve long-term neonatal outcome. To evaluate the long-term effect of a perinatal intervention follow-up of the child after discharge from the hospital is necessary because serious sequelae from perinatal complications frequently manifest themselves only after several years. However, long-term follow-up is time-consuming, is not in the awareness of obstetricians, is expensive and falls outside the funding-period of most obstetric studies. Consequently, short-term outcomes are often reported instead of the primary long-term end-point. With this project, we will assess the current state of affairs concerning follow-up after obstetric RCTs and we will develop multivariable prediction models for different long-term health outcomes. Furthermore, we would like to encourage other researchers participating in follow-up studies after large obstetric trials (> 350 women) to inform us about their studies so that we can include their follow-up study in our systematic review. We would invite these researchers also to join our effort and to collaborate with us on the external validation of our prediction models.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>A systematic review of neonatal follow-up after obstetric studies will be performed. All reviews of the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth group will be assessed for reviews on interventions that aimed to improve neonatal outcome. Reviews on interventions primary looking at other aspects than neonatal outcome such as labour progress will also be included when these interventions can change the outcome of the neonate on the short or long-term. Our review will be limited to RCTs with more than 350 women. Information that will be extracted from these RCTs will address whether, how and for how long follow-up has been performed. However, in many cases long-term follow-up of the infants will not be feasible. An alternative solution to limited follow-up could be to develop prediction models to estimate long-term health outcomes of the newborn based on specific perinatal outcomes and other covariates. For the development of multivariable prediction models for several health outcomes, we will use data available from a Dutch cohort study of preterm (< 32 weeks) and/or small for gestational age infants (< 1500 g). These infants were born in The Netherlands in 1983 and followed until they reached the age of 19.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The systematic review will provide insight in the extent and methods used for follow-up assessments after obstetric RCTs in the past. The prediction models can be used by future studies to extrapolate short-term outcomes to a long-term horizon or to indicate for which neonates long-term follow-up is required, as their outcomes (either absence or presence of sequelae) cannot be adequately predicted from short-term outcomes and clinical background characteristics.</p

Demographic, clinical and antibody characteristics of patients with digital ulcers in systemic sclerosis: data from the DUO Registry

OBJECTIVES: The Digital Ulcers Outcome (DUO) Registry was designed to describe the clinical and antibody characteristics, disease course and outcomes of patients with digital ulcers associated with systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: The DUO Registry is a European, prospective, multicentre, observational, registry of SSc patients with ongoing digital ulcer disease, irrespective of treatment regimen. Data collected included demographics, SSc duration, SSc subset, internal organ manifestations, autoantibodies, previous and ongoing interventions and complications related to digital ulcers. RESULTS: Up to 19 November 2010 a total of 2439 patients had enrolled into the registry. Most were classified as either limited cutaneous SSc (lcSSc; 52.2%) or diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc; 36.9%). Digital ulcers developed earlier in patients with dcSSc compared with lcSSc. Almost all patients (95.7%) tested positive for antinuclear antibodies, 45.2% for anti-scleroderma-70 and 43.6% for anticentromere antibodies (ACA). The first digital ulcer in the anti-scleroderma-70-positive patient cohort occurred approximately 5 years earlier than the ACA-positive patient group. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides data from a large cohort of SSc patients with a history of digital ulcers. The early occurrence and high frequency of digital ulcer complications are especially seen in patients with dcSSc and/or anti-scleroderma-70 antibodies

Long-term outcome in rheumatoid arthritis: a simple algorithm of baseline parameters can predict radiographic damage, disability, and disease course at 12-year followup

OBJECTIVES: To predict the long-term outcome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with respect to radiographic damage, disability, and disease course using baseline variables, and to construct decision trees identifying patients on an individual level at the extremes of the outcome spectrum of these 3 dimensions. METHODS: The 12-year outcome of 112 female RA patients from a prospective inception cohort was assessed by measuring the tertiles of radiographic damage (measured by the modified Sharp/van der Heijde method, SHS), disability (measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire, HAQ), and severe disease course as defined by patients with either the 33% highest cumulative disease activity (area under the curve of all observed disease activity scores) or the highest tertile of radiographic damage. Patients in the lowest (mild) and highest tertile (severe) of each outcome measure were identified. All baseline parameters known to be associated with each outcome (demographic and socioeconomic parameters; disease duration; disease activity measures; laboratory measures including rheumatoid factor, HLA typing, percentage agalactosyl IgG, functional and radiographic measures) were entered into cross-validated stepwise logistic regression models to find the best predictive combination of baseline parameters for each of the outcomes. Using the results of the logistic regression models, simple decision trees were constructed to categorize patients at an individual level in a particular prognostic group. RESULTS: After 12 years, the lowest and highest tertiles were, respectively, 42.3 and 189 for the SHS and 0.37 and 1.25 for the HAQ. Fifty-five patients had a severe disease course. Mild and severe radiographic damage could be predicted with an accuracy of 90% and 85%, respectively. Mild and severe HAQ could be predicted with an accuracy of 90% and 84%, respectively, and severe disease course with an accuracy of 81%. The baseline variables found to be predictive of all 3 outcome measures were very similar and consisted of combinations of the following baseline parameters: swollen joint count (SJC), Ritchie score, rheumatoid factor (RF), the presence of erosions, and the HAQ score. Additional knowledge of the HLA typing hardly improved the accuracy of the prediction. To predict outcome at the individual level, simple decision trees were constructed using the RF, HAQ, SJC, and presence of erosions at baseline. CONCLUSION: The present study shows that prediction of outcome in long-term RA is possible and can be done using widely available baseline parameter

Effects of psychosocial factors on monitoring treatment effect in newly diagnosed rheumatoid arthritis patients over time: response data from the tREACH study

Objectives: To investigate whether, apart from effects of patient- and disease-related factors, psychosocial factors have additional effects on disease activity; and which factors are most influential during the first year of treatment in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA).Method: The study assessed 15month follow-up data from patients in tREACH, a randomized clinical trial comparing initial triple disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug therapy to methotrexate monotherapy, with glucocorticoid bridging in both groups. Patients were evaluated every 3months and treated to target. Associations between Disease Activity Score (DAS) at 3, 9, and 15months and psychosocial factors (anxiety, depression, fatigue, and coping with pain) at the previous visit were assessed by multivariable linear regression correcting for demographic, clinical, and treatment-related factors.Results: At 3, 9, and 15months of follow-up, 265, 251, and 162 patients, respectively, were available for analysis. Baseline anxiety and coping with pain were associated with DAS at 3months; coping with pain at 6months was associated with DAS at 9months, and fatigue at 12months with DAS at 15months. Psychosocial factors were moderately correlated. Effects on DAS were mainly due to tender joint count and global health.Conclusion: Psychosocial factors have additional effects on DAS throughout the first year of treatment in early RA. A change was observed from anxiety and coping with pain at baseline being associated with subsequent DAS towards fatigue being associated with subsequent DAS at 12months. Owing to the explorative nature of this study, more research is needed to confirm this pattern

Association of Cardiovascular Risk Factors with Carotid Intima Media Thickness in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis with Low Disease Activity Compared to Controls: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has been identified as an independent cardiovascular risk factor. The importance of risk factors such as hypertension and hyperlipidemia in the generation of atherosclerosis in RA patients is unclear. This study analyzed clinical parameters associated with carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) in patients with RA.Subjects with RA and healthy controls without RA, both without known cardiovascular disease, were included. Participants underwent a standard physical examination and laboratory measurements including a lipid profile. cIMT was measured semi-automatically by ultrasound.In total 243 RA patients and 117 controls were included. The median RA disease duration was 7 years (IQR 2-14 years). The median DAS28 was 2.4 (IQR 1.6-3.2) and 114 (50.4%) of the RA patients were in remission. The presence of RA and cIMT were not associated (univariate analysis). Multivariable regression analysis showed that cIMT in RA patients was associated with age (B = 0.006, P<0.001) and systolic blood pressure (B = 0.003, P = 0.003). In controls, cIMT was associated with age (B = 0.006, P<0.001) and smoking (B = 0.097, P = 0.001).cIMT values were similar between RA patients and controls. Hypertension was strongly associated with cIMT in RA patients. After adjustment, no association between cIMT and specific RA disease characteristics was found in this well treated RA cohort