Barking Up the Right Tree: Are Small Groups Rational Agents?

Both mainstream economics and its critics have focused on models of individual rational agents even though most important decisions are made by small groups. Little systematic work has been done to study the behavior of small groups as decision-making agents in markets and other strategic games. This may limit the relevance of both economics and its critics to the objective of developing an understanding of how most important decisions are made. In order to gain some insight into this issue, this paper compares group and individual economic behavior. The objective of the research is to learn whether there are systematic differences between decisions made by groups and individual agents in market environments characterized by risky outcomes. A quantitative measure of deviation from minimallyrational decisions is used to compare group and individual behavior in common value auctions.

Integrating multiple knowledge bases within Google Desktop

Google is clearly the preferred solution when searching for information. However, how does one search for information within proprietary knowledge bases? We believe that we can use the power of Google Desktop (GD) as a repository and search mechanism for local proprietary knowledge. We have constructed a multi-socketed server (using C++) which allows network clients explicit control of textual input to GD. Using the ATL/COM interface, our software registers as a GD plug-in. Our server supports GD API "events", such as note, email, and instant message, and processes events at approximately 10/s. To test the effectiveness of the system, we downloaded 600,000 posts from a popular, public threaded discussion forum and 150,000 posts from a subscription-based forum. Our server partitions these knowledge sets so that they can be independently searched. We found that when compared to forum string search functions, our partitioned GD search tool produced significantly superior results.CableLabs Favorite

Properties of the Strange Axial Mesons in the Relativized Quark Model

We studied properties of the strange axial mesons in the relativized quark model. We calculated the $K_1$ decay constant in the quark model and showed how it can be used to extract the $K_1 (^3P_1) - K_1 (^1P_1)$ mixing angle ($\theta_K$) from the weak decay $\tau \to K_1 \nu_\tau$. The ratio $BR(\tau \to \nu_\tau K_1 (1270))/BR(\tau\to \nu_\tau K_1(1400))$ is the most sensitive measurement and also the most reliable since the largest of the theoretical uncertainties factor out. However the current bounds extracted from the TPC/Two-Gamma collaboration measurements are rather weak: we typically obtain $-30^o \lesssim \theta_K \lesssim 50^o$ at 68\% C.L. We also calculated the strong OZI-allowed decays in the pseudoscalar emission model and the flux-tube breaking model and extracted a $^3P_1 - ^1P_1$ mixing angle of $\theta_K \simeq 45^o$. Our analysis also indicates that the heavy quark limit does not give a good description of the strange mesons.Comment: Revised version to be published in Phys. Rev. D. Minor changes. Latex file uses revtex version 3 and epsfig, 4 postcript figures are attached. The full postcript version with embedded figures is available at ftp://ftp.physics.carleton.ca/pub/theory/godfrey/ocipc9512.ps.

Scope for Credit Risk Diversification

This paper considers a simple model of credit risk and derives the limit distribution of losses under different assumptions regarding the structure of systematic risk and the nature of exposure or firm heterogeneity. We derive fat-tailed correlated loss distributions arising from Gaussian risk factors and explore the potential for risk diversification. Where possible the results are generalised to non-Gaussian distributions. The theoretical results indicate that if the firm parameters are heterogeneous but come from a common distribution, for sufficiently large portfolios there is no scope for further risk reduction through active portfolio management. However, if the firm parameters come from different distributions, then further risk reduction is possible by changing the portfolio weights. In either case, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to underestimation of expected losses. But, once expected losses are controlled for, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to overestimation of risk, whether measured by unexpected loss or value-at-risk

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries