Modelling Emergent Patterns of Dynamic Desert Ecosystems

In many desert ecosystems vegetation is both patchy and dynamic: vegetated areas are interspersed with patches of bare ground, and both the positioning and the species composition of the vegetated areas exhibit change through time. These characteristics lead to the emergence of multi-scale patterns in vegetation that arise from complex relationships between plants, soils and transport processes. Previous attempts to probe the causes of spatial complexity and predict responses of desert ecosystems tend to be limited in their focus: models of dynamics have been developed with no consideration of the inherent patchiness in the vegetation, or else models have been developed to generate patterns with no consideration of the dynamics. Here we develop a general modelling framework for the analysis of ecosystem change in deserts that is rooted in the concept of connectivity and is derived from a detailed process-based understanding. We explicitly consider spatial interactions among multiple vegetation types and multiple resources, and our model is formulated to predict responses to a variety of endogenous and exogenous disturbances. The model is implemented in the deserts of the American Southwest both to test hypotheses of the causes of the invasion of woody shrubs, and to test its ability to reproduce 16 observed spatial differences in response to drought in the twentieth century. The model’s performance leads us to argue that vertical and lateral connectivity are key emergent properties of the ecosystem, which both control its behaviour and provide indicators of its state. If this argument is shown to be compatible with field observations, the model presented here will provide a more certain approach towards preventing further degradation of semi-arid grasslands. http://www.esajournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1890/12-1253.

Empowering minority women: Autonomy versus participation

Feminist attempts to empower women within their own cultural traditions have employed two broad strategies: authentic choice and participation. This paper argues that the methodological problems that beset the authentic choice strategy tell in favour of the participation approach. However, proponents of the participation strategy have failed to pay sufficient attention to the background conditions that need to be met if women are to make effective use of the institutional mechanisms their models advocate. If women are to be effective political agents at least some of the most serious structural inequalities that women face must be addressed. A nuanced statement of the participation strategy must therefore take account of long-standing feminist concerns regarding economic equality and access to resources. While this approach falls short of the demanding conditions for democratic citizenship implicit in the authentic choice strategy, it none the less places significant limits on the scope of participatory strategies and links the goal of empowering women within their own cultural traditions to wider feminist struggles to secure greater economic equality for women in general

Women We Loved: Paradoxes of public and private in the biographical television drama

Broadcast to critical acclaim and relatively large audiences for its niche channel, the Women We Loved season consisted of biographical dramatisations of three prominent female figures of 20th-century British culture. These dramas shared in common narratives that centre on the two aspects of ‘the public’ and ‘the private’: the tension between public career and personal life and the discrepancy between celebrity persona and private individual. Combining theoretical insights from feminist studies of biography with close textual analysis, this article analyses how performance, aesthetics and narrative express the ambivalent placement of their protagonists between public and private spheres

Electrocardiographic Criteria for Left Ventricular Hypertrophy in Children

Previous studies to determine the sensitivity of the electrocardiogram (ECG) for left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in children had their imperfections: they were not done on an unselected hospital population, several criteria used in adults were not applied to children, and obsolete limits of normal for the ECG parameters were used. Furthermore, left ventricular mass (LVM) was taken as the reference standard for LVH, with no regard for other clinical evidence. The study population consisted of 832 children from whom a 12-lead ECG and an M-mode echocardiogram were taken on the same day. The validity of the ECG criteria was judged on the basis of an abnormal LVM index, either alone or in combination with other clinical evidence. The ECG criteria were based on recently established age-dependent normal limits. At 95% specificity, the ECG criteria have low sensitivities (<25%) when an elevated LVM index is taken as the reference for LVH. When clinical evidence is also taken into account, the sensitivity improved considerably (<43%). Sensitivities could be further improved when ECG parameters were combined. The sensitivity of the pediatric ECG in detecting LVH is low but depends strongly on the definition of the reference used for validation

Observation- and Model-Based Estimates of Particulate Dry Nitrogen Deposition to the Oceans

© Author(s) 2017. This is an Open Access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 3.0 ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ ). Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) emissions to the atmosphere have increased significantly the deposition of nitrate (NO3−) and ammonium (NH4+) to the surface waters of the open ocean, with potential impacts on marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. Global-scale understanding of the impacts of N deposition to the oceans is reliant on our ability to produce and validate models of nitrogen emission, atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition. In this work,  ∼  2900 observations of aerosol NO3− and NH4+ concentrations, acquired from sampling aboard ships in the period 1995–2012, are used to assess the performance of modelled N concentration and deposition fields over the remote ocean. Three ocean regions (the eastern tropical North Atlantic, the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific) were selected, in which the density and distribution of observational data were considered sufficient to provide effective comparison to model products. All of these study regions are affected by transport and deposition of mineral dust, which alters the deposition of N, due to uptake of nitrogen oxides (NOx) on mineral surfaces. Assessment of the impacts of atmospheric N deposition on the ocean requires atmospheric chemical transport models to report deposition fluxes; however, these fluxes cannot be measured over the ocean. Modelling studies such as the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), which only report deposition flux, are therefore very difficult to validate for dry deposition. Here, the available observational data were averaged over a 5° × 5° grid and compared to ACCMIP dry deposition fluxes (ModDep) of oxidised N (NOy) and reduced N (NHx) and to the following parameters from the Tracer Model 4 of the Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory (TM4): ModDep for NOy, NHx and particulate NO3− and NH4+, and surface-level particulate NO3− and NH4+ concentrations. As a model ensemble, ACCMIP can be expected to be more robust than TM4, while TM4 gives access to speciated parameters (NO3− and NH4+) that are more relevant to the observed parameters and which are not available in ACCMIP. Dry deposition fluxes (CalDep) were calculated from the observed concentrations using estimates of dry deposition velocities. Model–observation ratios (RA, n), weighted by grid-cell area and number of observations, were used to assess the performance of the models. Comparison in the three study regions suggests that TM4 overestimates NO3− concentrations (RA, n =  1.4–2.9) and underestimates NH4+ concentrations (RA, n =  0.5–0.7), with spatial distributions in the tropical Atlantic and northern Indian Ocean not being reproduced by the model. In the case of NH4+ in the Indian Ocean, this discrepancy was probably due to seasonal biases in the sampling. Similar patterns were observed in the various comparisons of CalDep to ModDep (RA, n =  0.6–2.6 for NO3−, 0.6–3.1 for NH4+). Values of RA, n for NHx CalDep–ModDep comparisons were approximately double the corresponding values for NH4+ CalDep–ModDep comparisons due to the significant fraction of gas-phase NH3 deposition incorporated in the TM4 and ACCMIP NHx model products. All of the comparisons suffered due to the scarcity of observational data and the large uncertainty in dry deposition velocities used to derive deposition fluxes from concentrations. These uncertainties have been a major limitation on estimates of the flux of material to the oceans for several decades. Recommendations are made for improvements in N deposition estimation through changes in observations, modelling and model–observation comparison procedures. Validation of modelled dry deposition requires effective comparisons to observable aerosol-phase species' concentrations, and this cannot be achieved if model products only report dry deposition flux over the ocean.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Electrocardiographic diagnosis of left ventricular hypertrophy in aortic valve disease: evaluation of ECG criteria by cardiovascular magnetic resonance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is a hallmark of chronic pressure or volume overload of the left ventricle and is associated with risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The purpose was to evaluate different electrocardiographic criteria for LVH as determined by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR). Additionally, the effects of concentric and eccentric LVH on depolarization and repolarization were assessed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>120 patients with aortic valve disease and 30 healthy volunteers were analysed. As ECG criteria for LVH, we assessed the Sokolow-Lyon voltage/product, Gubner-Ungerleider voltage, Cornell voltage/product, Perugia-score and Romhilt-Estes score.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All ECG criteria demonstrated a significant correlation with LV mass and chamber size. The highest predictive values were achieved by the Romhilt-Estes score 4 points with a sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 81%. There was no difference in all ECG criteria between concentric and eccentric LVH. However, the intrinsicoid deflection (V6 37 ± 1.0 ms vs. 43 ± 1.6 ms, p < 0.05) was shorter in concentric LVH than in eccentric LVH and amplitudes of ST-segment (V5 -0.06 ± 0.01 vs. -0.02 ± 0.01) and T-wave (V5 -0.03 ± 0.04 vs. 0.18 ± 0.05) in the anterolateral leads (p < 0.05) were deeper.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>By calibration with CMR, a wide range of predictive values was found for the various ECG criteria for LVH with the most favourable results for the Romhilt-Estes score. As electrocardiographic correlate for concentric LVH as compared with eccentric LVH, a shorter intrinsicoid deflection and a significant ST-segment and T-wave depression in the anterolateral leads was noted.</p

Global warming and the cosmopolitan political conception of justice

Within the literature in green political theory on global environmental threats one can often find dissatisfaction with liberal theories of justice. This is true even though liberal cosmopolitans regularly point to global environmental problems as one reason for expanding the scope of justice beyond the territorial limits of the state. One of the causes for scepticism towards liberal approaches is that many of the most notable anti-cosmopolitan theories are also advanced by liberals. In this paper, I first explain why one of the strongest expressions of liberal anti-cosmopolitanism cannot simply be dismissed because it may fail to support desired environmental ends. The political conception of justice represents one of the most important challenges to cosmopolitanism generally and is thus a serious challenge to viewing global environmental problems in terms of cosmopolitan justice. Second, I will show through the case of anthropogenic global warming that the political conception of justice under current conditions does have clear cosmopolitan implications despite its proponents' claims

Civic Education: Political or Comprehensive?

In this chapter, I consider the problem children, conceived of as future citizens, pose to understanding the scope and limits of Rawls’s Political Liberalism by focusing on the civic education of children. Can a politically liberal state provide all children the opportunity to become reasonable citizens? Or does the cultivation of reasonableness require comprehensive liberalism? I show that educating children to become reasonable in the way Rawls outlines imposes a demanding requirement that conflicts with Rawls’s aim of including a wide constituency in the scope of political liberalism. Rawls’s aim of making reasonableness broadly inclusive for political purposes is in tension with his goal of using reasonableness as the standard that delineates the scope of liberal legitimacy. I argue that political liberalism can and should try to cultivate the reasonableness of its future citizens through the civic education of children. However, a defensible version of political liberal civic education requires introducing a bifurcation within Rawls’s conception of reasonableness. A political liberal form of civic education should aim towards the inclusive scope of reasonableness by cultivating reasonableness in only two of what appear to be three senses that Rawls emphasizes. Teaching children that legitimacy requires embracing public reason demands more than may be justifiably required by a state that seeks to be broadly inclusive