Explaining Deviations from Okun’s Law

Despite its stability over time, as for any statistical relationship, Okun’s law is subject to deviations that can be large at times. In this paper, we provide a mapping between residuals in Okun’s regressions and structural shocks identified using a SVAR model by inspecting how unemployment responds to the state of the economy. We show that deviations from Okun’s law are a natural and expected outcome once one takes a multi-shock perspective, as long as shocks to automation, labor supply and structural factors in the labor market are taken into account. Our simple recipe for policy makers is that, if a positive deviation from Okun’s law arises, it is likely to be generated by either positive labor supply or automation shocks or by negative structural factors shocks.publishedVersio

Are low frequency macroeconomic variables important for high frequency electricity prices?

We analyse the importance of low frequency hard and soft macroeconomic information, respectively the industrial production index and the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index surveys, for forecasting high-frequency daily electricity prices in two of the main European markets, Germany and Italy. We do that by means of mixed-frequency models, introducing a Bayesian approach to reverse unrestricted MIDAS models (RU-MIDAS). Despite the general parsimonious structure of standard MIDAS models, the RU-MIDAS has a large set of parameters when several predictors are considered simultaneously and Bayesian inference is useful for imposing parameter restrictions. We study the forecasting accuracy for different horizons (from $1$ day ahead to $28$ days ahead) and by considering different specifications of the models. Results indicate that the macroeconomic low frequency variables are more important for short horizons than for longer horizons. Moreover, accuracy increases by combining hard and soft information, and using only surveys gives less accurate forecasts than using only industrial production data.Comment: This paper has previously circulated with the title: "Forecasting daily electricity prices with monthly macroeconomic variables" (ECB Working paper Series No. 2250

Automatic Dehumanization Across Menstrual Cycle

In the current study we address the role of hormonal fluctuations across menstrual cycle in female dehumanization of women and men. Using a sequential priming procedure in a lexical decision task, we test whether increased levels of conception risk lead to dehumanization of other women and men on both animal and human dimensions. Results showed that for word woman as the prime, animal words were more accessible in the high than in the low conception risk of the menstrual cycle; whereas human words were more inhibited in the high compared to the low conception risk. As for word man prime, no difference in terms of accessibility was found between the high and the low conception risk on both animaland human-words. This study demonstrates that dehumanization of women is automatically elicited by menstrual cycle–related processes and associated with women’s mate-attraction goals

The association between OCD and shame : A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Due to rumination and self-criticism over unwanted obsessions and repetitive rituals, shame is a common emotion experienced by individuals with obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD). Shame is also theorized to have relevance to unacceptable thoughts in OCD. However, empirical research looking at the relationship between OCD and shame is still emerging and findings have been mixed. Objectives Our review systematically examines the association of shame with OCD and unacceptable thoughts. Methods The last updated search was conducted across five databases between 27 and 29 February 2022. The final selection included 20 papers, 18 of which were used in the primary meta-analysis to calculate pooled effect sizes between OCD and shame measures using a random effects model. In a separate analysis, three papers were used to calculate pooled effect sizes between shame and OCD symptom dimensions also using a random effects model. Results The meta-analyses identified a significant, moderate and positive correlation between total OCD and shame scores r = .352, 95% CI [0.260, 0.438]. In addition, significant, weak and positive relationships were found between shame and three OCD symptom dimensions: unacceptable thoughts r = .252, 95% CI [−0.467, 0.9708], harm obsessions r = .224, CI [−0.190, 0.638] and symmetry concerns r = .200, CI [−0.108, 0.509]. Limitations Shame measures in the reviewed studies were not specific to OCD, and between-study variance in the analyses examining unacceptable thoughts was significant. Conclusions Our findings support a medium positive relationship between shame and OCD. As shame in OCD can be a barrier to seeking treatment and impair quality of life, it is imperative to address this emotion through psychoeducation, assessment and treatment

The role of associative learning in healthy and sustainable food evaluations : An event-related potential study

Individuals in industrialized societies frequently include processed foods in their diet. However, overconsumption of heavily processed foods leads to imbalanced calorie intakes as well as negative health consequences and environmental impacts. In the present study, normal-weight healthy individuals were recruited in order to test whether associative learning (Evaluative Conditioning, EC) could strengthen the association between food-types (minimally processed and heavily processed foods) and concepts (e.g., healthiness), and whether these changes would be reflected at the implicit associations, at the explicit ratings and in behavioral choices. A Semantic Congruency task (SC) during electroencephalography recordings was used to examine the neural signature of newly acquired associations between foods and concepts. The accuracy after EC towards minimally processed food (MP-food) in the SC task significantly increased, indicating strengthened associations between MP-food and the concept of healthiness through EC. At the neural level, a more negative amplitude of the N400 waveform, which reflects semantic incongruency, was shown in response to MP-foods paired with the concept of unhealthiness in proximity of the dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). This implied the possible role of the left DLPFC in changing food representations by integrating stimuli’s features with existing food-relevant information. Finally, the N400 effect was modulated by individuals’ attentional impulsivity as well as restrained eating behavior

A multi‐analyses approach of inductive/deductive asymmetry in the affective priming paradigm

Rapidly evaluating our environment's beneficial and detrimental features is critical for our successful functioning. A classic paradigm used to investigate such fast and automatic evaluations is the affective priming (AP) paradigm, where participants classify valenced target stimuli (e.g., words) as good or bad while ignoring the valenced primes (e.g., words). We investigate the differential impact that verbs and adjectives used as primes and targets have on the AP paradigm. Based on earlier work on the Linguistic Category Model, we expect AP effect to be modulated by non-evaluative properties of the word stimuli, such as the linguistic category (e.g., if the prime is an adjective and the target is a verb versus the reverse). A reduction in the magnitude of the priming effect was predicted for adjective–verb prime-target pairs compared to verb–adjective prime-target pairs. Moreover, we implemented a modified crowdsourcing of statistical analyses implementing independently three different statistical approaches. Deriving our conclusions on the converging/ diverging evidence provided by the different approaches, we show a clear deductive/inductive asymmetry in AP paradigm (exp. 1), that this asymmetry does not require a focus on the evaluative dimension to emerge (exp. 2) and that the semantic-based asymmetry weakly extends to valence (exp. 3).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Hyaluronan mixed esters of butyric and retinoic acid drive cardiac and endothelial fate in term placenta human mesenchymal stem cells and enhance cardiac repair in infarcted rat hearts.

We have developed a mixed ester of hyaluronan with butyric and retinoic acid (HBR) that acted as a novel cardiogenic/vasculogenic agent in human mesenchymal stem cells isolated from bone marrow, dental pulp, and fetal membranes of term placenta (FMhMSCs). HBR remarkably enhanced vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), KDR, and hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) gene expression and the secretion of the angiogenic, mitogenic, and antiapoptotic factors VEGF and HGF, priming stem cell differentiation into endothelial cells. HBR also increased the transcription of the cardiac lineage-promoting genes GATA-4 and Nkx-2.5 and the yield of cardiac markerexpressing cells. These responses were notably more pronounced in FMhMSCs. FMhMSC transplantation into infarcted rat hearts was associated with increased capillary density, normalization of left ventricular function, and significant decrease in scar tissue. Transplantation of HBR-preconditioned FMhM-SCs further enhanced capillary density and the yield of human vWF-expressing cells, additionally decreasing the infarct size. Some engrafted, HBR-pretreated FMhMSCs were also positive for connexin 43 and cardiac troponin I. Thus, the beneficial effects of HBR-exposed FMhMSCs may be mediated by a large supply of angiogenic and antiapoptotic factors, and FMhMSC differentiation into vascular cells. These findings may contribute to further development in cell therapy of heart failure

Term amniotic membrane is a high throughput source for multipotent mesenchymal stem cells with the ability to differentiate into endothelial cells in vitro

BACKGROUND: Term Amniotic membrane (AM) is a very attractive source of Mesenchymal Stem Cells (MSCs) due to the fact that this fetal tissue is usually discarded without ethical conflicts, leading to high efficiency in MSC recovery with no intrusive procedures. Here we confirmed that term AM, as previously reported in the literature, is an abundant source of hMSCs; in particular we further investigated the AM differentiation potential by assessing whether these cells may also be committed to the angiogenic fate. In agreement with the recommendation of the International Society for Cellular Therapy, the mesenchymal cells herein investigated were named Amniotic Membrane-human Mesenchymal Stromal Cells (AM-hMSC). RESULTS: The recovery of hMSCs and their in vitro expansion potential were greater in amniotic membrane than in bone marrow stroma. At flow cytometry analysis AM-hMSCs showed an immunophenotypical profile, i.e., positive for CD105, CD73, CD29, CD44, CD166 and negative for CD14, CD34, CD45, consistent with that reported for bone marrow-derived MSCs. In addition, amniotic membrane-isolated cells underwent in vitro osteogenic (von Kossa stain), adipogenic (Oil Red-O stain), chondrogenic (collagen type II immunohistochemichal detection) and myogenic (RT-PCR MyoD and Myogenin expression as well as desmin immunohistochemical detection) differentiation. In angiogenic experiments, a spontaneous differentiation into endothelial cells was detected by in vitro matrigel assay and this behaviour has been enhanced through Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) induction. According to these findings, VEGF receptor 1 and 2 (FLT-1 and KDR) were basally expressed in AM-hMSCs and the expression of endothelial-specific markers like FLT-1 KDR, ICAM-1 increased after exposure to VEGF together with the occurrence of CD34 and von Willebrand Factor positive cells. CONCLUSION: The current study suggests that AM-hMSCs may emerge as a remarkable tool for the cell therapy of multiple diseased tissues. AM-hMSCs may potentially assist both bone and cartilage repair, nevertheless, due to their angiogenic potential, they may also pave the way for novel approaches in the development of tissue-engineered vascular grafts which are useful when vascularization of ischemic tissues is required