A New Approach to Expectation Theory: Rationality Revisited

Expectations play an important role in economics. Traditionally two major branches of expectation theory are distinguished: that of adaptive and rational expectations. This study sets out the goal of investigating inflationary expectations based on real world experiences. The model proposed and tested here abandons the traditional fixed-time-interval-update models for a non-fixed-time-interval-update model. Although the penalty function attached to each error is still subject to debate, it is shown that by reacting with faster updates to errors in expectations economic agents achieve more precise expectations compared to those of a fix time interval update model. We also find the model rational in the weak sense, but we are unable to test the proposed model for strong rationality as of this moment, due to the lack of appropriate econometric tests for non-fixed time interval processes. The study concludes that time variant adaptive expectations can be regarded as rational in the weak sense, and at the limit they appear to be mathematically identical

Európai uniós országcsoportok mezÅ‘gazdasági teljesítményének összehasonlító vizsgálata

Tanulmányunkban azt vizsgáltuk, hogy az elmúlt 10 év adatai igazolják-e azt, hogy a kelet-európai országok csak az alultÅ‘késítettség miatt nem teljesítettek a potenciáljuknak megfelelÅ‘ mértékben. Az Európai Unió tagországai közül kiragadtunk 6 nyugati és 6 keleti országot, vagyis két országcsoportot képeztünk, ezt követÅ‘en pedig megvizsgáltuk a kiválasztott 6-6 ország teljesítményét. Megállapítható, hogy az elmúlt évtizedben a keleti térség országainak kibocsátási szintje a potenciális pálya közelében mozgott, miközben a hat nyugati ország teljesítménye észrevehetÅ‘en elmaradt saját potenciális értékétÅ‘l. (Hollandia magas pozitívértéke egyedinek tekinthetÅ‘.) Amennyiben a nyugati országokhoz illesztett, lineáris modell alapján becsült potenciális kibocsátási értékekhez viszonyítjuk a tényleges kibocsátást, a keleti országokra átlagosan kevesebb mint 40%-os értéket kapunk. Ezen belül Románia, Lengyelország és Szlovénia egyharmados értéken áll, Magyarország és Szlovákia kicsivel meghaladja a 40%-ot, Csehország a 62%-ot. A FAO és az EBRD megállapításával összhangban ez azt a feltételezést erÅ‘síti, hogy például a lengyelek, a románok és a szlovének tÅ‘kebevonással (elsÅ‘sorban gépesítéssel, fejlett technológia alkalmazásával és az ahhoz szükséges szaktudással) nagyarányú, akár háromszoros értéket lennének képesek elérni. Továbbá megállapítható, hogy – egyetértve Harvey-vel – a közösségi támogatások inkoherensek és illegitimek. Bárhogyan vizsgáltuk a KAP-pénzek elosztását, akár az output részarányhoz viszonyítva, akár az egy fÅ‘re jutó GDP-hez viszonyítva, akár egy hektárra vetítve, a keleti országok és a hollandok a legkevesebb támogatást kapták, ezzel szemben az osztrákok, a dánok, a franciák a támogatásokból nagyobb mértékben részesültek, holott a teljesítményük ezt nem indokolja. Más szavakkal, az erÅ‘sen támogatott nyugati országok jelentÅ‘s szubvencióval együtt sem tudtak a többiekhez képest kimagasló teljesítményt nyújtani, miközben az alultámogatott, újonnan csatlakozott országok rejtett potenciáljának kihasználását jelentÅ‘sen elÅ‘segíthetné a közösségi forrásokból való magasabb részesedés. ------------------------------------------------- Our paper examines whether data from the last 10 years confirm that Eastern European countries were unable to perform in line with their potentials only due to their weak capitalisation. We selected 6 Western and 6 Eastern countries from among the EU member states and examined the performance of these two groups. It was found that the output level of the countries of the Eastern regions followed their line of potential, while the performance of the six Western countries was appreciably lower than their own potential. (The high figure calculated for the Netherlands can be considered a unique result.) Comparison of the actual output to the potential output calculated on the basis of the linear model fitted to the Western countries, the figure calculated for the Eastern countries is on average less than 40%. Romania, Poland and Slovenia are at one third; Hungary and Slovakia are a little over 40%, and the Czech Republic is at 62%. In line with the conclusion of the FAO and EBRD, this supports the assumption that for example the Polish, the Romanian and the Slovenian could achieve a much higher value - as much as triple - through improves capitalisation (primarily through the acquisition of machinery, the introduction of advanced technologies and the necessary expertise). In agreement with Harvey, it can also be concluded that the Community grants are incoherent and illegitimate. No matter how we examined the distribution of CAP monies, whether in terms of the countries’ share of output, per capita GDP, or per hectare, the Eastern countries and the Netherlands receive the least subsidies, while Austria, Denmark and France receive a larger share of the subsidies even though their performance does not justify it. In other words, despite the large amounts of subsidies, the strongly subsidized Western countries were unable to achieve outstanding results compared to the others, while a higher share of the Community funds could greatly help the newly joined countries live up to their hidden potential.mezÅ‘gazdasági teljesítmény, kibocsátás, Kelet-Európa, agricultural performance, output, Eastern Europe, Agricultural and Food Policy, Productivity Analysis,

Stability analysis of planetary systems via second-order Renyi entropy

The long-term dynamical evolution is a crucial point in recent planetary research. Although the amount of observational data are continuously growing and the precision allows us to obtain accurate planetary orbits, the canonical stability analysis still requires N-body simulations and phase space trajectory investigations. We propose a method for stability analysis of planetary motion based on the generalized Renyi entropy obtained from a scalar measurement. The radial velocity data of the central body in the gravitational three-body problem are used as the basis of a phase space reconstruction procedure. Then, Poincare's recurrence theorem contributes to finding a natural partitioning in the reconstructed phase space to obtain the Renyi entropy. It turns out that the entropy-based stability analysis is in good agreement with other chaos detection methods, and it requires only a few tens of thousands of orbital period integration time

A large scale interactive holographic display

Conference Held in Alexandria, VA, USA, March 26 2006. CD ROM ProceedingsOur work focuses on the development of interactive multi-user holographic displays that allow freely moving naked eye participants to share a three dimensional scene with fully continuous, observer independent, parallax. Our approach is based on a scalable design that exploits a specially arranged array of projectors and a holographic screen. The feasibility of such an approach has already been demonstrated with a working hardware and software 7.4M pixel prototype driven at 10-15Hz by two DVI streams. In this short contribution, we illustrate our progress, presenting a 50M pixel display prototype driven by a dedicated cluster hosting multiple consumer level graphic cards

A holographic collaborative medical visualization system

We report on our work on the development of a novel holographic display technology, capable of targeting multiple freely moving naked eye viewers, and of a demonstrator exploiting this technology to provide medical specialists with a truly interactive collaborative 3D environment for diagnostic discussions and/or pre-operative planning.52-5

A New Approach to Expectation Theory: Rationality Revisited

Expectations play an important role in economics. Traditionally two major branches of expectation theory are distinguished: that of adaptive and rational expectations. This study sets out the goal of investigating inflationary expectations based on real world experiences. The model proposed and tested here abandons the traditional fixed-time-interval-update models for a non-fixed-time-interval-update model. Although the penalty function attached to each error is still subject to debate, it is shown that by reacting with faster updates to errors in expectations economic agents achieve more precise expectations compared to those of a fix time interval update model. We also find the model rational in the weak sense, but we are unable to test the proposed model for strong rationality as of this moment, due to the lack of appropriate econometric tests for non-fixed time interval processes. The study concludes that time variant adaptive expectations can be regarded as rational in the weak sense, and at the limit they appear to be mathematically identical

Empirical research findings on telework: Management experiences and attitudes

Based on the technological progress and the complex work processes of our increasingly globalised world, novel ways of organising work can be seen everywhere. The EU has defined atypical forms of employment as breakthrough points in improving employment indices. Telework is probably the most innovative atypical working form, offering huge amount of benefits for the employer, employee and the society. Gaining a deeper understanding of employment trends and employers’ decision-making mechanisms, we can understand the specifics of this spreading working form, and we can use this knowledge to stimulate the employment trends. This study summarises the finding of an empirical research among medium and large enterprises in Hungary using telework