Sensitivity of a Mesoscale Model to Microphysical Parameterizations in the MAP SOP Events IOP2b and IOP8

Abstract The sensitivity of a mesoscale model to different microphysical parameterizations is investigated for two events of precipitation in the Mediterranean region, that is, the Mesoscale Alpine Program (MAP) intensive observation periods (IOP) 2b (19–21 September 1999) and 8 (20–22 October 1999). Simulations are performed with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5); the most commonly used bulk microphysical parameterization schemes are evaluated, with a particular focus on their impact on the forecast of rainfall. To evaluate the forecast skill, the verification is carried out quantitatively by using the observations recorded by a high-resolution rain gauge network during the MAP campaign. The results show that, for the surface rainfall forecast, all microphysical schemes produce a similar precipitation field and none of them perform significantly better than the others. The ability of different schemes to reproduce events with different ongoing microphysical processes is briefly discussed by comparing model simulations and knowledge of hydrometeor fields from radar observations. The vertical profiles of hydrometeors from two of the analyzed schemes show gross similarities with available radar observations. Last, the role of one of the parameterizations appearing in a typical bulk microphysical scheme, that is, the one of the snowfall speed, is evaluated in detail. Adjustments in the semiempirical relationships describing the fall speed of snow particles have a large impact, because a reduced snowfall speed enhances precipitation on the lee side of mountain ridges and diminishes it on the windward side. Anyway, this effect does not appear to be able to largely improve or reduce the forecast skill of the MM5 systematically; the impact of changes in the parameterization of the snow deposition velocity very likely depends on the dynamics of the event under investigation

Impact of multiple radar reflectivity data assimilation on the numerical simulation of a flash flood event during the HyMeX campaign

An analysis to evaluate the impact of multiple radar reflectivity data with a three-dimensional variational (3-D-Var) assimilation system on a heavy precipitation event is presented. The main goal is to build a regionally tuned numerical prediction model and a decision-support system for environmental civil protection services and demonstrate it in the central Italian regions, distinguishing which type of observations, conventional and not (or a combination of them), is more effective in improving the accuracy of the forecasted rainfall. In that respect, during the first special observation period (SOP1) of HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) campaign several intensive observing periods (IOPs) were launched and nine of which occurred in Italy. Among them, IOP4 is chosen for this study because of its low predictability regarding the exact location and amount of precipitation. This event hit central Italy on 14 September 2012 producing heavy precipitation and causing several cases of damage to buildings, infrastructure, and roads. Reflectivity data taken from three C-band Doppler radars running operationally during the event are assimilated using the 3-D-Var technique to improve high-resolution initial conditions. In order to evaluate the impact of the assimilation procedure at different horizontal resolutions and to assess the impact of assimilating reflectivity data from multiple radars, several experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are performed. Finally, traditional verification scores such as accuracy, equitable threat score, false alarm ratio, and frequency bias - interpreted by analysing their uncertainty through bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) - are used to objectively compare the experiments, using rain gauge data as a benchmark

Comparison between 3D-Var and 4D-Var data assimilation methods for the simulation of a heavy rainfall case in central Italy

Abstract. This work aims to provide a comparison between three dimensional and four dimensional variational data assimilation methods (3D-Var and 4D-Var) for a heavy rainfall case in central Italy. To evaluate the impact of the assimilation of reflectivity and radial velocity acquired from Monte Midia Doppler radar into the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model, the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) is used.The two methods are compared for a heavy rainfall event that occurred in central Italy on 14 September 2012 during the first Special Observation Period (SOP1) of the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in Mediterranean EXperiment) campaign. This event, characterized by a deep low pressure system over the Tyrrhenian Sea, produced flash floods over the Marche and Abruzzo regions, where rainfall maxima reached more than 150 mm 24 h−1.To identify the best QPF, nine experiments are performed using 3D-Var and 4D-Var data assimilation techniques. All simulations are compared in terms of rainfall forecast and precipitation measured by the gauges through three statistical indicators: probability of detection (POD), critical success index (CSI) and false alarm ratio (FAR). The assimilation of conventional observations with 4D-Var method improves the QPF compared to 3D-Var. In addition, the use of radar measurements in 4D-Var simulations enhances the performances of statistical scores for higher rainfall thresholds

G-CLASS: geosynchronous radar for water cycle science - orbit selection and system design

The mission geosynchronous – continental land atmosphere sensing system (G-CLASS) is designed to study the diurnal water cycle, using geosynchronous radar. Although the water cycle is vital to human society, processes on timescales less than a day are very poorly observed from space. G-CLASS, using C-band geosynchronous radar, could transform this. Its science objectives address intense storms and high resolution weather prediction, and significant diurnal processes such as snow melt and soil moisture change, with societal impacts including agriculture, water resource management, flooding, and landslides. Secondary objectives relate to ground motion observations for earthquake, volcano, and subsidence monitoring. The orbit chosen for G-CLASS is designed to avoid the geosynchronous protected region and enables integration times of minutes to an hour to achieve resolutions down to ∼20 m. Geosynchronous orbit (GEO) enables high temporal resolution imaging (up to several images per hour), rapid response, and very flexible imaging modes which can provide much improved coverage at low latitudes. The G-CLASS system design is based on a standard small geosynchronous satellite and meets the requirements of ESA's Earth Explorer 10 call

Weekday and Weekend Differences in Eating Habits, Physical Activity and Screen Time Behavior among a Sample of Primary School Children: The "Seven Days for My Health" Project

Background: Healthy eating and active lifestyle habits are essential for a child's development, wellbeing, and health. School setting and family environment play a crucial role in shaping these habits and this could be reflected in different behavior patterns during weekdays and weekends. Methods: We investigated primary school children's lifestyle habits through a cross-sectional analysis of 428 Italian primary school children, with a mean age of 8.99 years (+/- 1.43). Data were collected from May to June 2017 using a weekly diary to assess children's lifestyles. Results: Children who eat their morning snack and lunch at school three or more times during the weekdays were 5.47 times more likely (95% CI 3.02, 10.2) to consume adequate snacks and 7.79 times more likely (95% CI 4.43, 14.5) to have adequate meals than those who did not. Conclusion: Consumption of vegetables, lunch, and snacks are significantly more adequate during the weekdays as compared to the weekends. Physical activity levels did not differ between weekdays and weekends. Moreover, children spent more time engaged in physical activities than in front of a screen during both the weekdays and the weekends. The present results are good indicators of the importance of the school canteen in defining correct eating habits. Family-based and school-based interventions could represent valuable integrative strategies for promoting a healthy lifestyle in children

GPS data recommendations for European Numerical Weather Prediction

Informe del proyecto TOUGH: Targeting Optimal Use of GPS Humidity Measurements in Meteorology.TOUGH is a shared cost project, co-funded by the Research DG of the European Commission, within the RTD activities of the Environment and Sustainable Development sub-programme, contract no EVG1-CT-2002-00080

Neuroticism and Conscientiousness Moderate the Effect of Oral Medication Beliefs on Adherence of People with Mental Illness during the Pandemic

Background. After the declaration of the pandemic status in several countries, the continuity of face-to-face visits in psychiatric facilities has been delayed or even interrupted to reduce viral spread. Little is known about the personality factors associated with medication beliefs and adherence amongst individuals with mental illness during the COVID-19 pandemic. This brief report describes a preliminary naturalistic longitudinal study that explored whether the Big Five personality traits prospectively moderate the effects of medication beliefs on changes in adherence during the pandemic for a group of outpatients with psychosis or bipolar disorder. Methods. Thirteen outpatients undergoing routine face-to-face follow-up assessments during the pandemic were included (41 observations overall) and completed the Revised Italian Version of the Ten-Item Personality Inventory, the Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire, the Morisky Medication Adherence Scale-8-item and the Beck Depression Inventory-II. Results. Participants had stronger concerns about their psychiatric medications rather than beliefs about their necessity, and adherence to medications was generally low. Participants who had more necessity beliefs than concerns had better adherence to medications. People scoring higher in Conscientiousness and Neuroticism traits and more concerned about the medication side effects had poorer adherence. Conclusions. These preliminary data suggest the importance of a careful assessment of the adherence to medications amongst people with psychosis/bipolar disorder during the pandemic. Interventions aimed to improve adherence might focus on patients' medication beliefs and their Conscientiousness and Neuroticism personality traits

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment as support for bathing waters profiling

Profiling bathing waters supported by Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is key to the WHO's recommendations for the 2020/2021 revision of the European Bathing Water Directive. We developed an areaspecific QMRA model on four pathogens, using fecal indicator concentrations (E. coil, enterococci) for calculating pathogen loads. The predominance of illness was found to be attributable to Human Adenovirus, followed by Salmonella, Vibrio, and Norovirus. Overall, the cumulative illness risk showed a median of around 1 case/10000 exposures. The risk estimates were strongly influenced by the indicators that were used, suggesting the need for a more detailed investigation of the different sources of fecal contamination. Area-specific threshold values for fecal indicators were estimated on a risk-basis by modelling the cumulative risk against E. coll. and enterococci concentrations. To improve bathing waters assessment, we suggest considering source apportionment locally estimating of pathogen/indicator ratios, and calculating site-specific indicators thresholds based on risk assessment

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTING IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS - PUSHED AHEAD BY MAP

The improvement of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) in mountainous area was the central supporting objective of the MAP project P1 devoted to the study of orographic precipitation. This paper attempts to review the main MAP-related achievements towards QPF improvement and to highlight the MAP-impact for developing QPF research and operational strategies

Introducing the Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology

The rapid technological development of the past few decades has allowed for an unprecedented wealth of data about ourselves and our planet. The cost reduction of space platforms, the microelectronic revolution and the nearly exponential increase in computer power have been generating novel opportunities to explore and understand the world around us. Tools and theoretical approaches, capable of putting together all the insights we may possibly gain from all these new streams of data in a multidisciplinary framework, are still being developed. We are hence faced with both a unique challenge and an opportunity to make a significant progress in many scientific fields, first and foremost in the atmospheric and climate sciences. We are pleased to announce here the launch of the Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology (BAST), a new peer-reviewed journal which is meant to bridge this gap in the broad area of the atmospheric sciences. The journal encourages a cross-disciplinary approach with an emphasis on new sensor technologies and systems, combined observational and modeling techniques, innovative numerical methods, data analysis, and retrieval techniques. BAST offers a platform to share new ideas and fresh developments to stimulate research activities focusing on urban, coastal, marine, rural, and mountain environments. Particular attention will be given to cross-disciplinary studies, especially those involving citizens for the collection of crowd-sourced data and those devoted to the characterization of uncertainties and homogenization of methods. BAST aims at connecting weather and climate communities using both observational and modeling approaches, creating a forum hosting discussion and brainstorming activities. The journal also hopes to attract contributions reporting approaches or techniques from other scientific fields that can be applicable to atmospheric sciences, as well as contributions where technological developments are discussed alongside with their scientific and societal impacts. In this sense BAST will provide a new platform to support the technological revolution towards a climate-smart society through the collection and exploitation of big data. The journal will give visibility to international experiments and projects in atmospheric science and technology, illustrating preliminary or consolidated results from these initiatives. Additional fields of interest are : environmental protection; observation, understanding, and modeling of hazardous and extreme events and mitigation of their impacts; development of new sensing tools integrating satellite information with surface or airborne measurements; operation of unmanned and remotely piloted air vehicles equipped with sensors of small size and weight, especially remote sensors, pushing electro-optical-mechanical components towards a continuously increasing miniaturization. Research articles, Review articles, Technical reports, Brief reports, Letters and News are welcome. While keeping the focus of the journal on scientific research, the “Bulletin” format provides appropriate visibility to contributions from the operational side, i.e., meteorological services and private companies developing sensors and products of interest to the atmospheric science and technology community. Below we provide a more detailed description of the topics that will be emphasized and fostered in BAST