Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data

Extrapolation methods are reliable, objective, inexpensive, quick, and easily automated. As a result, they are widely used, especially for inventory and production forecasts, for operational planning for up to two years ahead, and for long-term forecasts in some situations, such as population forecasting. This paper provides principles for selecting and preparing data, making seasonal adjustments, extrapolating, assessing uncertainty, and identifying when to use extrapolation. The principles are based on received wisdom (i.e., experts’ commonly held opinions) and on empirical studies. Some of the more important principles are:• In selecting and preparing data, use all relevant data and adjust the data for important events that occurred in the past.• Make seasonal adjustments only when seasonal effects are expected and only if there is good evidence by which to measure them.• In extrapolating, use simple functional forms. Weight the most recent data heavily if there are small measurement errors, stable series, and short forecast horizons. Domain knowledge and forecasting expertise can help to select effective extrapolation procedures. When there is uncertainty, be conservative in forecasting trends. Update extrapolation models as new data are received.• To assess uncertainty, make empirical estimates to establish prediction intervals.• Use pure extrapolation when many forecasts are required, little is known about the situation, the situation is stable, and expert forecasts might be biased

Discovering collectively informative descriptors from high-throughput experiments

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Improvements in high-throughput technology and its increasing use have led to the generation of many highly complex datasets that often address similar biological questions. Combining information from these studies can increase the reliability and generalizability of results and also yield new insights that guide future research.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This paper describes a novel algorithm called BLANKET for symmetric analysis of two experiments that assess informativeness of descriptors. The experiments are required to be related only in that their descriptor sets intersect substantially and their definitions of case and control are consistent. From resulting lists of n descriptors ranked by informativeness, BLANKET determines <b>shortlists </b>of descriptors from each experiment, generally of different lengths p and q. For any pair of shortlists, four numbers are evident: the number of descriptors appearing in both shortlists, in exactly one shortlist, or in neither shortlist. From the associated contingency table, BLANKET computes Right Fisher Exact Test (RFET) values used as scores over a plane of possible pairs of shortlist lengths <abbrgrp><abbr bid="B1">1</abbr><abbr bid="B2">2</abbr></abbrgrp>. BLANKET then chooses a pair or pairs with RFET score less than a threshold; the threshold depends upon n and shortlist length limits and represents a quality of intersection achieved by less than 5% of random lists.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Researchers seek within a universe of descriptors some minimal subset that collectively and efficiently predicts experimental outcomes. Ideally, any smaller subset should be insufficient for reliable prediction and any larger subset should have little additional accuracy. As a method, BLANKET is easy to conceptualize and presents only moderate computational complexity. Many existing databases could be mined using BLANKET to suggest optimal sets of predictive descriptors.</p

Search for Gravitational Waves from Primordial Black Hole Binary Coalescences in the Galactic Halo

We use data from the second science run of the LIGO gravitational-wave detectors to search for the gravitational waves from primordial black hole (PBH) binary coalescence with component masses in the range 0.2--$1.0 M_\odot$. The analysis requires a signal to be found in the data from both LIGO observatories, according to a set of coincidence criteria. No inspiral signals were found. Assuming a spherical halo with core radius 5 kpc extending to 50 kpc containing non-spinning black holes with masses in the range 0.2--$1.0 M_\odot$, we place an observational upper limit on the rate of PBH coalescence of 63 per year per Milky Way halo (MWH) with 90% confidence.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, to be submitted to Phys. Rev.

Changes in oxygen partial pressure of brain tissue in an animal model of obstructive apnea

Background: Cognitive impairment is one of the main consequences of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and is usually attributed in part to the oxidative stress caused by intermittent hypoxia in cerebral tissues. The presence of oxygen-reactive species in the brain tissue should be produced by the deoxygenation-reoxygenation cycles which occur at tissue level during recurrent apneic events. However, how changes in arterial blood oxygen saturation (SpO2) during repetitive apneas translate into oxygen partial pressure (PtO2) in brain tissue has not been studied. The objective of this study was to assess whether brain tissue is partially protected from intermittently occurring interruption of O2 supply during recurrent swings in arterial SpO2 in an animal model of OSA. Methods: Twenty-four male Sprague-Dawley rats (300-350 g) were used. Sixteen rats were anesthetized and noninvasively subjected to recurrent obstructive apneas: 60 apneas/h, 15 s each, for 1 h. A control group of 8 rats was instrumented but not subjected to obstructive apneas. PtO2 in the cerebral cortex was measured using a fastresponse oxygen microelectrode. SpO2 was measured by pulse oximetry. The time dependence of arterial SpO2 and brain tissue PtO2 was carried out by Friedman repeated measures ANOVA. Results: Arterial SpO2 showed a stable periodic pattern (no significant changes in maximum [95.5 ± 0.5%; m ± SE] and minimum values [83.9 ± 1.3%]). By contrast, brain tissue PtO2 exhibited a different pattern from that of arterial SpO2. The minimum cerebral cortex PtO2 computed during the first apnea (29.6 ± 2.4 mmHg) was significantly lower than baseline PtO2 (39.7 ± 2.9 mmHg; p = 0.011). In contrast to SpO2, the minimum and maximum values of PtO2 gradually increased (p < 0.001) over the course of the 60 min studied. After 60 min, the maximum (51.9 ± 3.9 mmHg) and minimum (43.7 ± 3.8 mmHg) values of PtO2 were significantly greater relative to baseline and the first apnea dip, respectively. Conclusions: These data suggest that the cerebral cortex is partially protected from intermittently occurring interruption of O2 supply induced by obstructive apneas mimicking OSA

A Randomized Trial of a Physical Conditioning Program to Enhance the Driving Performance of Older Persons

BACKGROUND: As the number of older drivers increases, concern has been raised about the potential safety implications. Flexibility, coordination, and speed of movement have been associated with older drivers’ on road performance. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a multicomponent physical conditioning program targeted to axial and extremity flexibility, coordination, and speed of movement could improve driving performance among older drivers. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial with blinded assignment and end point assessment. Participants randomized to intervention underwent graduated exercises; controls received home, environment safety modules. PARTICIPANTS: Drivers, 178, age ≥ 70 years with physical, but without substantial visual (acuity 20/40 or better) or cognitive (Mini Mental State Examination score ≥24) impairments were recruited from clinics and community sources. MEASUREMENTS: On-road driving performance assessed by experienced evaluators in dual-brake equipped vehicle in urban, residential, and highway traffic. Performance rated three ways: (1) 36-item scale evaluating driving maneuvers and traffic situations; (2) evaluator’s overall rating; and (3) critical errors committed. Driving performance reassessed at 3 months by evaluator blinded to treatment group. RESULTS: Least squares mean change in road test scores at 3 months compared to baseline was 2.43 points higher in intervention than control participants (P = .03). Intervention drivers committed 37% fewer critical errors (P = .08); there were no significant differences in evaluator’s overall ratings (P = .29). No injuries were reported, and complaints of pain were rare. CONCLUSIONS: This safe, well-tolerated intervention maintained driving performance, while controls declined during the study period. Having interventions that can maintain or enhance driving performance may allow clinician–patient discussions about driving to adopt a more positive tone, rather than focusing on driving limitation or cessation

Comparative genomics of Cluster O mycobacteriophages

Mycobacteriophages - viruses of mycobacterial hosts - are genetically diverse but morphologically are all classified in the Caudovirales with double-stranded DNA and tails. We describe here a group of five closely related mycobacteriophages - Corndog, Catdawg, Dylan, Firecracker, and YungJamal - designated as Cluster O with long flexible tails but with unusual prolate capsids. Proteomic analysis of phage Corndog particles, Catdawg particles, and Corndog-infected cells confirms expression of half of the predicted gene products and indicates a non-canonical mechanism for translation of the Corndog tape measure protein. Bioinformatic analysis identifies 8-9 strongly predicted SigA promoters and all five Cluster O genomes contain more than 30 copies of a 17 bp repeat sequence with dyad symmetry located throughout the genomes. Comparison of the Cluster O phages provides insights into phage genome evolution including the processes of gene flux by horizontal genetic exchange

Expanding the diversity of mycobacteriophages: Insights into genome architecture and evolution

Mycobacteriophages are viruses that infect mycobacterial hosts such as Mycobacterium smegmatis and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. All mycobacteriophages characterized to date are dsDNA tailed phages, and have either siphoviral or myoviral morphotypes. However, their genetic diversity is considerable, and although sixty-two genomes have been sequenced and comparatively analyzed, these likely represent only a small portion of the diversity of the mycobacteriophage population at large. Here we report the isolation, sequencing and comparative genomic analysis of 18 new mycobacteriophages isolated from geographically distinct locations within the United States. Although no clear correlation between location and genome type can be discerned, these genomes expand our knowledge of mycobacteriophage diversity and enhance our understanding of the roles of mobile elements in viral evolution. Expansion of the number of mycobacteriophages grouped within Cluster A provides insights into the basis of immune specificity in these temperate phages, and we also describe a novel example of apparent immunity theft. The isolation and genomic analysis of bacteriophages by freshman college students provides an example of an authentic research experience for novice scientists. © 2011 Hatfull et al

Habitat associations of juvenile versus adult butterflyfishes

Author Posting. © Springer-Verlag, 2008. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer-Verlag for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Coral Reefs 27 (2008): 541-551, doi:10.1007/s00338-008-0357-8.Many coral reef fishes exhibit distinct ontogenetic shifts in habitat use while some species settle directly in adult habitats, but there is not any general explanation to account for these differences in settlement strategies among coral reef fishes. This study compared distribution patterns and habitat associations of juvenile (young of the year) butterflyfishes to those of adult conspecifics. Three species, Chaetodon auriga, Chaetodon melannotus, and Chaetodon vagabundus, all of which have limited reliance on coral for food, exhibited marked differences in habitat association of juvenile versus adult individuals. Juveniles of these species were consistently found in shallow-water habitats, whereas adult conspecifics were widely distributed throughout a range of habitats. Juveniles of seven other species (Chaetodon aureofasciatus, Chaetodon baronessa, Chaetodon citrinellus, Chaetodon lunulatus, Chaetodon plebeius, Chaetodon rainfordi, and Chaetodon trifascialis), all of which feed predominantly on live corals, settled directly into habitat occupied by adult conspecifics. Butterflyfishes with strong reliance on corals appear to be constrained to settle in habitats that provide access to essential prey resources, precluding their use of distinct juvenile habitats. More generalist butterflyfishes, however, appear to utilise distinct juvenile habitats and exhibit marked differences in the distribution of juveniles versus adults.This research was funded by a JCU Program Grant to MSP, while MLB was supported by an NSF (USA) Graduate Research Fellowship

Response of a Specialist Bat to the Loss of a Critical Resource

Human activities have negatively impacted many species, particularly those with unique traits that restrict their use of resources and conditions to specific habitats. Unfortunately, few studies have been able to isolate the individual and combined effects of different threats on population persistence in a natural setting, since not all organisms can be associated with discrete habitat features occurring over limited spatial scales. We present the results of a field study that examines the short-term effects of roost loss in a specialist bat using a conspicuous, easily modified resource. We mimicked roost loss in the natural habitat and monitored individuals before and after the perturbation to determine patterns of resource use, spatial movements, and group stability. Our study focused on the disc-winged bat Thyroptera tricolor, a species highly morphologically specialized for roosting in the developing furled leaves of members of the order Zingiberales. We found that the number of species used for roosting increased, that home range size increased (before: mean 0.14±SD 0.08 ha; after: 0.73±0.68 ha), and that mean association indices decreased (before: 0.95±0.10; after: 0.77±0.18) once the roosting habitat was removed. These results demonstrate that the removal of roosting resources is associated with a decrease in roost-site preferences or selectivity, an increase in mobility of individuals, and a decrease in social cohesion. These responses may reduce fitness by potentially increasing energetic expenditure, predator exposure, and a decrease in cooperative interactions. Despite these potential risks, individuals never used roost-sites other than developing furled leaves, suggesting an extreme specialization that could ultimately jeopardize the long-term persistence of this species' local populations

Evidence of Latitudinal Migration in Tri-colored Bats, Perimyotis subflavus

Background: Annual movements of tri-colored bats (Perimyotis subflavus) are poorly understood. While this species has been considered a regional migrant, some evidence suggests that it may undertake annual latitudinal migrations, similar to other long distance North American migratory bat species. Methodology/Principal Findings: We investigated migration in P. subflavus by conducting stable hydrogen isotope analyses of 184 museum specimen fur samples and comparing these results (dDfur) to published interpolated dD values of collection site growing season precipitation (dDprecip). Results suggest that the male molt period occurred between June 23 and October 16 and 33 % of males collected during the presumed non-molt period were south of their location of fur growth. For the same time period, 16 % of females were south of their location of fur growth and in general, had not travelled as far as migratory males. There were strong correlations between dDfur from the presumed molt period and both growing season dD precip (males – r 2 = 0.86; p,0.01; females – r 2 = 0.75; p,0.01), and latitude of collection (males – r 2 = 0.85; p,0.01; females – r 2 = 0.73; p,0.01). Most migrants were collected at the northern (.40uN; males and females) and southern (,35uN; males only) extents of the species ’ range. Conclusions/Significance: These results indicate a different pattern of migration for this species than previously documented, suggesting that some P. subflavus engage in annual latitudinal migrations and that migratory tendency varie