Fluctuations of company yearly profits versus scaled revenue: Fat tail distribution of Levy type

We analyze annual revenues and earnings data for the 500 largest-revenue U.S. companies during the period 1954-2007. We find that mean year profits are proportional to mean year revenues, exception made for few anomalous years, from which we postulate a linear relation between company expected mean profit and revenue. Mean annual revenues are used to scale both company profits and revenues. Annual profit fluctuations are obtained as difference between actual annual profit and its expected mean value, scaled by a power of the revenue to get a stationary behavior as a function of revenue. We find that profit fluctuations are broadly distributed having approximate power-law tails with a Levy-type exponent $\alpha \simeq 1.7$, from which we derive the associated break-even probability distribution. The predictions are compared with empirical data.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

Fine Particulate Air Pollution and the Progression of Carotid Intima-Medial Thickness: A Prospective Cohort Study from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution

Background Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been linked to cardiovascular disease, possibly via accelerated atherosclerosis. We examined associations between the progression of the intima-medial thickness (IMT) of the common carotid artery, as an indicator of atherosclerosis, and long-term PM2.5 concentrations in participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Methods and Results MESA, a prospective cohort study, enrolled 6,814 participants at the baseline exam (2000–2002), with 5,660 (83%) of those participants completing two ultrasound examinations between 2000 and 2005 (mean follow-up: 2.5 years). PM2.5 was estimated over the year preceding baseline and between ultrasounds using a spatio-temporal model. Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations were examined using mixed models adjusted for confounders including age, sex, race/ethnicity, smoking, and socio-economic indicators. Among 5,362 participants (5% of participants had missing data) with a mean annual progression of 14 µm/y, 2.5 µg/m3 higher levels of residential PM2.5 during the follow-up period were associated with 5.0 µm/y (95% CI 2.6 to 7.4 µm/y) greater IMT progressions among persons in the same metropolitan area. Although significant associations were not found with IMT progression without adjustment for metropolitan area (0.4 µm/y [95% CI −0.4 to 1.2 µm/y] per 2.5 µg/m3), all of the six areas showed positive associations. Greater reductions in PM2.5 over follow-up for a fixed baseline PM2.5 were also associated with slowed IMT progression (−2.8 µm/y [95% CI −1.6 to −3.9 µm/y] per 1 µg/m3 reduction). Study limitations include the use of a surrogate measure of atherosclerosis, some loss to follow-up, and the lack of estimates for air pollution concentrations prior to 1999. Conclusions This early analysis from MESA suggests that higher long-term PM2.5 concentrations are associated with increased IMT progression and that greater reductions in PM2.5 are related to slower IMT progression. These findings, even over a relatively short follow-up period, add to the limited literature on air pollution and the progression of atherosclerotic processes in humans. If confirmed by future analyses of the full 10 years of follow-up in this cohort, these findings will help to explain associations between long-term PM2.5 concentrations and clinical cardiovascular events. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summar

Inheritance patterns in citation networks reveal scientific memes

Memes are the cultural equivalent of genes that spread across human culture by means of imitation. What makes a meme and what distinguishes it from other forms of information, however, is still poorly understood. Our analysis of memes in the scientific literature reveals that they are governed by a surprisingly simple relationship between frequency of occurrence and the degree to which they propagate along the citation graph. We propose a simple formalization of this pattern and we validate it with data from close to 50 million publication records from the Web of Science, PubMed Central, and the American Physical Society. Evaluations relying on human annotators, citation network randomizations, and comparisons with several alternative approaches confirm that our formula is accurate and effective, without a dependence on linguistic or ontological knowledge and without the application of arbitrary thresholds or filters.Comment: 8 two-column pages, 5 figures; accepted for publication in Physical Review

Epidemic processes in complex networks

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio

PM2.5 metal exposures and nocturnal heart rate variability: a panel study of boilermaker construction workers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To better understand the mechanism(s) of particulate matter (PM) associated cardiovascular effects, research priorities include identifying the responsible PM characteristics. Evidence suggests that metals play a role in the cardiotoxicity of fine PM (PM_2.5) and in exposure-related decreases in heart rate variability (HRV). We examined the association between daytime exposure to the metal content of PM_2.5and night HRV in a panel study of boilermaker construction workers exposed to metal-rich welding fumes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty-six male workers were monitored by ambulatory electrocardiogram (ECG) on a workday while exposed to welding fume and a non-workday (baseline). From the ECG, rMSSD (square root of the mean squared differences of successive intervals) was summarized over the night (0:00–7:00). Workday, gravimetric PM_2.5samples were analyzed by x-ray fluorescence to determine metal content. We used linear mixed effects models to assess the associations between night rMSSD and PM_2.5metal exposures both with and without adjustment for total PM_2.5. Matched ECG measurements from the non-workday were used to control for individual cardiac risk factors and models were also adjusted for smoking status. To address collinearity between PM_2.5and metal content, we used a two-step approach that treated the residuals from linear regression models of each metal on PM_2.5as surrogates for the differential effects of metal exposures in models for night rMSSD.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The median PM_2.5exposure was 650 μg/m³; median metal exposures for iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, zinc, chromium, lead, and nickel ranged from 226 μg/m³to non-detectable. We found inverse linear associations in exposure-response models with increased metal exposures associated with decreased night rMSSD. A statistically significant association for manganese was observed, with a decline of 0.130 msec (95% CI: -0.162, -0.098) in night rMSSD for every 1 μg/m³increase in manganese. However, even after adjusting for individual metals, increases in total PM_2.5exposures were associated with declines in night rMSSD.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results support the cardiotoxicity of PM_2.5metal exposures, specifically manganese. However the metal component alone did not account for the observed declines in night HRV. Therefore, results suggest the importance of other PM elemental components.</p

Acute and Chronic Effects of Particles on Hospital Admissions in New-England

Background: Many studies have reported significant associations between exposure to $PM_{2.5}$ and hospital admissions, but all have focused on the effects of short-term exposure. In addition all these studies have relied on a limited number of $PM_{2.5}$ monitors in their study regions, which introduces exposure error, and excludes rural and suburban populations from locations in which monitors are not available, reducing generalizability and potentially creating selection bias. Methods Using our novel prediction models for exposure combining land use regression with physical measurements (satellite aerosol optical depth) we investigated both the long and short term effects of $PM_{2.5}$ exposures on hospital admissions across New-England for all residents aged 65 and older. We performed separate Poisson regression analysis for each admission type: all respiratory, cardiovascular disease (CVD), stroke and diabetes. Daily admission counts in each zip code were regressed against long and short-term $PM_{2.5}$ exposure, temperature, socio-economic data and a spline of time to control for seasonal trends in baseline risk. Results: We observed associations between both short-term and long-term exposure to $PM_{2.5}$ and hospitalization for all of the outcomes examined. In example, for respiratory diseases, for every10-µg/m$^3$ increase in short-term $PM_{2.5}$ exposure there is a 0.70 percent increase in admissions (CI = 0.35 to 0.52) while concurrently for every10-µg/m$^3$ increase in long-term $PM_{2.5}$ exposure there is a 4.22 percent increase in admissions (CI = 1.06 to 4.75). Conclusions: As with mortality studies, chronic exposure to particles is associated with substantially larger increases in hospital admissions than acute exposure and both can be detected simultaneously using our exposure models

The Diet of Diabetic Patients in Spain in 2008–2010: Accordance with the Main Dietary Recommendations—A Cross-Sectional Study

Background: No previous study has assessed the diet of the diabetic patients in the general population of an entire country in Europe. This study evaluates accordance of the diet of diabetic adults in Spain with nutritional recommendations of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD), American Diabetes Association (ADA), and the Mediterranean diet (MD). Methods and Findings: Cross-sectional study conducted in 2008-2010 among 12,948 persons representative of the population aged ≥18 years in Spain. Usual food consumption was assessed with a dietary history. EASD accordance was defined as ≥6 points on a score of 12 nutritional goals, ADA accordance as ≥3 points on a score of 6 goals, and MD accordance as ≥7 points on the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener. In the 609 diagnosed diabetic individuals, the diet was rich in saturated fat (11.2% of total energy), but trans fat intake was relatively low (1.1% energy) and monounsaturated fat intake was high (16.1% energy). Carbohydrate intake was relatively low (41.1% energy), but sugar intake was high (16.9% energy). Intake of cholesterol (322 mg/day) and sodium (3.1 g/day) was also high, while fiber intake was insufficient (23.8 g/day). EASD accordance was observed in 48.7% diabetic patients, ADA accordance in 46.3%, and MD accordance in 57.4%. The frequency of EASD, ADA and MD accordance was not statistically different between diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetic individuals. Conclusions: Only about half of diabetic patients in Spain have a diet that is consistent with the major dietary recommendations. The lack of dietary differences between diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetic individuals reflects deficiencies in diabetes managementThe ENRICA study is funded by Sanofi-Aventis. Additional funding is obtained from FIS grant PI09/1626 and from the ‘Cátedra UAM de Epidemiología y Control del Riesgo Cardiovascular

Reconstruction of Cell Lineage Trees in Mice

The cell lineage tree of a multicellular organism represents its history of cell divisions from the very first cell, the zygote. A new method for high-resolution reconstruction of parts of such cell lineage trees was recently developed based on phylogenetic analysis of somatic mutations accumulated during normal development of an organism. In this study we apply this method in mice to reconstruct the lineage trees of distinct cell types. We address for the first time basic questions in developmental biology of higher organisms, namely what is the correlation between the lineage relation among cells and their (1) function, (2) physical proximity and (3) anatomical proximity. We analyzed B-cells, kidney-, mesenchymal- and hematopoietic-stem cells, as well as satellite cells, which are adult skeletal muscle stem cells isolated from their niche on the muscle fibers (myofibers) from various skeletal muscles. Our results demonstrate that all analyzed cell types are intermingled in the lineage tree, indicating that none of these cell types are single exclusive clones. We also show a significant correlation between the physical proximity of satellite cells within muscles and their lineage. Furthermore, we show that satellite cells obtained from a single myofiber are significantly clustered in the lineage tree, reflecting their common developmental origin. Lineage analysis based on somatic mutations enables performing high resolution reconstruction of lineage trees in mice and humans, which can provide fundamental insights to many aspects of their development and tissue maintenance