2,027 research outputs found
An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior
Lack of knowledge about the values of ice sheet model input parameters introduces substantial uncertainty into projections of Greenland Ice Sheet contributions to future sea level rise. Computer models of ice sheet behavior provide one of several means of estimating future sea level rise due to mass loss from ice sheets. Such models have many input parameters whose values are not well known. Recent studies have investigated the effects of these parameters on model output, but the range of potential future sea level increases due to model parametric uncertainty has not been characterized. Here, we demonstrate that this range is large, using a 100-member perturbed-physics ensemble with the SICOPOLIS ice sheet model. Each model run is spun up over 125 000 yr using geological forcings and subsequently driven into the future using an asymptotically increasing air temperature anomaly curve. All modeled ice sheets lose mass after 2005 AD. Parameters controlling surface melt dominate the model response to temperature change. After culling the ensemble to include only members that give reasonable ice volumes in 2005 AD, the range of projected sea level rise values in 2100 AD is ~40 % or more of the median. Data on past ice sheet behavior can help reduce this uncertainty, but none of our ensemble members produces a reasonable ice volume change during the mid-Holocene, relative to the present. This problem suggests that the model's exponential relation between temperature and precipitation does not hold during the Holocene, or that the central-Greenland temperature forcing curve used to drive the model is not representative of conditions around the ice margin at this time (among other possibilities). Our simulations also lack certain observed physical processes that may tend to enhance the real ice sheet's response. Regardless, this work has implications for other studies that use ice sheet models to project or hindcast the behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet
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Fine-scale precipitation in the high-entropy alloy Al<inf>0.5</inf>CrFeCoNiCu
The high-entropy alloy Al0:5CrFeCoNiCu has been shown to consist of two stable, face-centred cubic solid solutions at temperatures approaching its solidus;
one rich in Cr, Fe, Co & Ni (dendritic) and the other rich in Cu (interdendritic).
Whilst some studies have suggested that the high-temperature microstructure
may be metastably retained to room temperature through rapid cooling, evidence of phase decomposition has also been reported. In this study, fine-scale
precipitation has been observed in samples of Al0:5CrFeCoNiCu that have been
rapidly cooled after casting, and water quenched following ageing for 1000 h
at 1000°C. Contrary to previous reports, in the as-cast state, the two face-
centred cubic phases, as well as an L12 phase, were found in both dendritic and
interdendritic areas, with the dendritic areas having undergone a spinodal decomposition. After ageing and quenching, L12 precipitates were found in both
dendritic and interdendritic areas, and precipitates of the Cr-, Fe-, Co- and
Ni-enriched face-centred cubic phase were found in the Cu-rich interdendritic
regions. Given the nature of the heat treatments applied, the results suggest
that precipitation in the alloy is rapid and cannot be avoided, even when the
material is cooled quickly to room temperature.The authors acknowledge funding from Rolls-Royce plc and the EPSRC under the Rolls-Royce/EPSRC Strategic Partnership (EP/H022309/1).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.msea.2015.08.01
The potential of an observational data set for calibration of a computationally expensive computer model
PublishedJournal ArticleWe measure the potential of an observational data set to constrain a set of inputs to a complex and computationally expensive computer model. We use each member in turn of an ensemble of output from a computationally expensive model, corresponding to an observable part of a modelled system, as a proxy for an observational data set. We argue that, given some assumptions, our ability to constrain uncertain parameter inputs to a model using its own output as data, provides a maximum bound for our ability to constrain the model inputs using observations of the real system. The ensemble provides a set of known parameter input and model output pairs, which we use to build a computationally effic. © 2013 Author(s).This work was supported by funding from the ice2sea programme from the European Union 7th Framework Programme, grant number 226375. Ice2sea contribution number 154
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Impact of meltwater on high-latitude early Last Interglacial climate
Recent data compilations of the early Last Interglacial period have indicated a bipolar temperature response at 130 ka, with colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic and warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Ocean and over Antarctica. However, climate model simulations of this period have been unable to reproduce this response, when only orbital and greenhouse gas forcings are considered in a climate model framework. Using a full-complexity general circulation model we perform climate model simulations representative of 130 ka conditions which include a magnitude of freshwater forcing derived from data at this time. We show that this meltwater from the remnant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the glacial-interglacial transition produces a modelled climate response similar to the observed colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic at 130 ka and also results in warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Ocean via the bipolar seesaw mechanism. Further simulations in which the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is also removed lead to warming in East Antarctica and the Southern Ocean but do not appreciably improve the model-data comparison. This integrated model-data approach provides evidence that Northern Hemisphere freshwater forcing is an important player in the evolution of early Last Interglacial climate.This work was carried out with funding from the UK-NERC consortium iGlass (NE/I009906/1) and is also a contribution to the European Union’s Seventh Framework programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement 243908, “Past4Future. Climate change – Learning from the past climate”. This is Past4Future contribution no. 85
Soliton pair creation in classical wave scattering
We study classical production of soliton-antisoliton pairs from colliding
wave packets in (1+1)-dimensional scalar field model. Wave packets represent
multiparticle states in quantum theory; we characterize them by energy E and
particle number N. Sampling stochastically over the forms of wave packets, we
find the entire region in (E,N) plane which corresponds to classical creation
of soliton pairs. Particle number is parametrically large within this region
meaning that the probability of soliton-antisoliton pair production in
few-particle collisions is exponentially suppressed.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, journal version; misprint correcte
Gamma-gamma prime-gamma double prime dual-superlattice superalloys
Improving the efficiency of gas turbine engines requires the development of new materials capable of operating at higher temperatures and stresses. Here, we report on a new polycrystalline nickel-base superalloy that has exceptional strength and thermal stability. These properties have been achieved through a four-element composition that can form both gamma prime and gamma double prime precipitates in comparable volume fractions, creating an unusual dual-superlattice microstructure. Alloying studies have shown that further property improvements can be achieved, and that with development such alloys may be suitable for future engine applications
Clinical and genetic analysis of 29 Brazilian patients with Huntington’s disease-like phenotype
Huntington’s disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by chorea,
behavioral disturbances and dementia, caused by a pathological expansion of the CAG
trinucleotide in the HTT gene. Several patients have been recognized with the typical HD
phenotype without the expected mutation. The objective of this study was to assess the
occurrence of diseases such as Huntington’s disease-like 2 (HDL2), spinocerebellar ataxia
(SCA) 1, SCA2, SCA3, SCA7, dentatorubral-pallidoluysian atrophy (DRPLA) and choreaacanthocytosis
(ChAc) among 29 Brazilian patients with a HD-like phenotype. In the group
analyzed, we found 3 patients with HDL2 and 2 patients with ChAc. The diagnosis was not
reached in 79.3% of the patients. HDL2 was the main cause of the HD-like phenotype in
the group analyzed, and is attributable to the African ancestry of this population. However,
the etiology of the disease remains undetermined in the majority of the HD negative
patients with HD-like phenotype.
Key words: Huntington’s disease, Huntington’s disease-like, chorea-acanthocytosis,
Huntington’s disease-like 2
Detecting the orientation of magnetic fields in galaxy clusters
Clusters of galaxies, filled with hot magnetized plasma, are the largest
bound objects in existence and an important touchstone in understanding the
formation of structures in our Universe. In such clusters, thermal conduction
follows field lines, so magnetic fields strongly shape the cluster's thermal
history; that some have not since cooled and collapsed is a mystery. In a
seemingly unrelated puzzle, recent observations of Virgo cluster spiral
galaxies imply ridges of strong, coherent magnetic fields offset from their
centre. Here we demonstrate, using three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamical
simulations, that such ridges are easily explained by galaxies sweeping up
field lines as they orbit inside the cluster. This magnetic drape is then lit
up with cosmic rays from the galaxies' stars, generating coherent polarized
emission at the galaxies' leading edges. This immediately presents a technique
for probing local orientations and characteristic length scales of cluster
magnetic fields. The first application of this technique, mapping the field of
the Virgo cluster, gives a startling result: outside a central region, the
magnetic field is preferentially oriented radially as predicted by the
magnetothermal instability. Our results strongly suggest a mechanism for
maintaining some clusters in a 'non-cooling-core' state.Comment: 48 pages, 21 figures, revised version to match published article in
Nature Physics, high-resolution version available at
http://www.cita.utoronto.ca/~pfrommer/Publications/pfrommer-dursi.pd
Safety of immediate reversal of anticoagulation by protamine to reduce bleeding complications after infarct artery stenting for acute myocardial infarction and adjunctive abciximab therapy
Infarct artery stenting with adjunctive abciximab therapy is widely used treatment for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, bleeding complications have been associated with a worse clinical outcome. Randomized trials in elective patients have shown that postprocedural protamine administration is safe and associated with a significant reduction in bleeding complications. The aim of the current study was to evaluate in STEMI patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with abciximab and stenting whether immediate reversal of anticoagulation by protamine is safe and associated with a reduction in the occurrence of bleeding complications. From January 2004 to June 2005, 254 patients with STEMI had immediate reversal of anticoagulation by protamine administration after infarct artery stenting and received abciximab therapy without heparin infusion (Group 1). These patients were compared with a control group of 265 patients (June 2002–December 2003) treated with the standard heparin therapy: bolus in order to achieve an activated coagulation time of 250–300 s during PCI plus 12-h infusion (7 UI/kg/h; Group 2). We excluded patients undergoing IABP implantation. The two groups were similar in all baseline characteristics. There were no differences in in-hospital mortality, reinfarction, urgent target vessel revascularization, stroke or acute or subacute stent thrombosis, while Group 1 patients showed a lower incidence of major bleeding complications (ACUITY scale: 1.1 vs. 4.0%, P = 0.035) and a shorter length of hospital stay (3.5 ± 1.7 vs. 4.0 ± 1.6 days, P = 0.002) as compared with heparin treated patients. Among patients undergoing primary stenting with abciximab administration, immediate post-PCI reversal anticoagulation by protamine without associated heparin infusion is safe and associated with a significant reduction in major bleeding complications
Verticalization of bacterial biofilms
Biofilms are communities of bacteria adhered to surfaces. Recently, biofilms
of rod-shaped bacteria were observed at single-cell resolution and shown to
develop from a disordered, two-dimensional layer of founder cells into a
three-dimensional structure with a vertically-aligned core. Here, we elucidate
the physical mechanism underpinning this transition using a combination of
agent-based and continuum modeling. We find that verticalization proceeds
through a series of localized mechanical instabilities on the cellular scale.
For short cells, these instabilities are primarily triggered by cell division,
whereas long cells are more likely to be peeled off the surface by nearby
vertical cells, creating an "inverse domino effect". The interplay between cell
growth and cell verticalization gives rise to an exotic mechanical state in
which the effective surface pressure becomes constant throughout the growing
core of the biofilm surface layer. This dynamical isobaricity determines the
expansion speed of a biofilm cluster and thereby governs how cells access the
third dimension. In particular, theory predicts that a longer average cell
length yields more rapidly expanding, flatter biofilms. We experimentally show
that such changes in biofilm development occur by exploiting chemicals that
modulate cell length.Comment: Main text 10 pages, 4 figures; Supplementary Information 35 pages, 15
figure
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