CHEM2D-OPP: A new linearized gas-phase ozone photochemistry parameterization for high-altitude NWP and climate models

The new CHEM2D-Ozone Photochemistry Parameterization (CHEM2D-OPP) for high-altitude numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and climate models specifies the net ozone photochemical tendency and its sensitivity to changes in ozone mixing ratio, temperature and overhead ozone column based on calculations from the CHEM2D interactive middle atmospheric photochemical transport model. We evaluate CHEM2D-OPP performance using both short-term (6-day) and long-term (1-year) stratospheric ozone simulations with the prototype high-altitude NOGAPS-ALPHA forecast model. An inter-comparison of NOGAPS-ALPHA 6-day ozone hindcasts for 7 February 2005 with ozone photochemistry parameterizations currently used in operational NWP systems shows that CHEM2D-OPP yields the best overall agreement with both individual Aura Microwave Limb Sounder ozone profile measurements and independent hemispheric (10°–90° N) ozone analysis fields. A 1-year free-running NOGAPS-ALPHA simulation using CHEM2D-OPP produces a realistic seasonal cycle in zonal mean ozone throughout the stratosphere. We find that the combination of a model cold temperature bias at high latitudes in winter and a warm bias in the CHEM2D-OPP temperature climatology can degrade the performance of the linearized ozone photochemistry parameterization over seasonal time scales despite the fact that the parameterized temperature dependence is weak in these regions

Model/data comparisons of ozone in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere

We compare ground-based microwave observations of ozone in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere with daytime observations made from the SME (Solar Mesosphere Explorer) satellite, with nighttime data from the LIMS instrument, and with a diurnal photochemical model. The results suggest that the data are all in reasonable agreement and that the model-data discrepancy is much less than previously thought, particularly in the mesosphere. This appears to be due to the fact that the latest data are lower than earlier reports and the updated model predicts more ozone than older versions. The model and the data agree to within a factor of 1.5 at all altitudes and typically are within 20 percent

Results from two years of ozone data taken with a new, ground-based microwave instrument: An overview

An overview of two years of data obtained with a ground-based microwave instrument is given. Intercomparisons with data obtained by the co-located JPL lidar and by SAGE 2 during near overpasses of the site are discussed, as are comparisons with mesospheric data taken earlier by SME and LIMS. Observations of diurnal variations of mesospheric ozone are shown

Assimilation of stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures from MLS and SABER into a global NWP model

International audienceThe forecast model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) have each been extended into the upper stratosphere and mesosphere to form an Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (ALPHA) version of NOGAPS extending to ~100 km. This NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP prototype is used to assimilate stratospheric and mesospheric temperature data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Radiometry (SABER) instruments. A 60-day analysis period in January and February, 2006, was chosen that includes a well documented stratospheric sudden warming. SABER temperatures indicate that the SSW caused the polar winter stratopause at ~40 km to disappear, then reform at ~80 km altitude and slowly descend during February. The NOGAPS-ALPHA analysis reproduces this observed stratospheric and mesospheric temperature structure, as well as realistic evolution of zonal winds, residual velocities, and Eliassen-Palm fluxes that aid interpretation of the vertically deep circulation and eddy flux anomalies that developed in response to this wave-breaking event. The observation minus forecast (O-F) standard deviations for MLS and SABER are ~2 K in the mid-stratosphere and increase monotonically to about 6 K in the upper mesosphere. Increasing O-F standard deviations in the mesosphere are expected due to increasing instrument error and increasing geophysical variance at small spatial scales in the forecast model. In the mid/high latitude winter regions, 10-day forecast skill is improved throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere when the model is initialized using the high-altitude analysis based on assimilation of both SABER and MLS data

Gravity wave propagation over the polar regions

第2回極域科学シンポジウム/第35回極域宙空圏シンポジウム 11月14日（月） 国立極地研究所 2階大会議

Geomagnetic activity and polar surface air temperature variability

Here we use the ERA-40 and ECMWF operational surface level air temperature data sets from 1957 to 2006 to examine polar temperature variations during years with different levels of geomagnetic activity, as defined by the A(p) index. Previous modeling work has suggested that NOx produced at high latitudes by energetic particle precipitation can eventually lead to detectable changes in surface air temperatures (SATs). We find that during winter months, polar SATs in years with high A(p) index are different than in years with low A(p) index; the differences are statistically significant at the 2-sigma level and range up to about +/- 4.5 K, depending on location. The temperature differences are larger when years with wintertime Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are excluded. We take into account solar irradiance variations, unlike previous analyses of geomagnetic effects in ERA-40 and operational data. Although we cannot conclusively show that the polar SAT patterns are physically linked by geomagnetic activity, we conclude that geomagnetic activity likely plays a role in modulating wintertime surface air temperatures. We tested our SAT results against variation in the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. The results suggested that these were not driving the observed polar SAT variability. However, significant uncertainty is introduced by the Northern Annular Mode, and we cannot robustly exclude a chance linkage between sea surface temperature variability and geomagnetic activity

NRLMSIS 2.1: An Empirical Model of Nitric Oxide Incorporated Into MSIS

We have developed an empirical model of nitric oxide (NO) number density at altitudes from similar to 73 km to the exobase, as a function of altitude, latitude, day of year, solar zenith angle, solar activity, and geomagnetic activity. The model is part of the NRLMSIS (R) 2.1 empirical model of atmospheric temperature and species densities; this upgrade to NRLMSIS 2.0 consists solely of the addition of NO. MSIS 2.1 assimilates observations from six space-based instruments: UARS/HALOE, SNOE, Envisat/MIPAS, ACE/FTS, Odin/SMR, and AIM/SOFIE. We additionally evaluated the new model against independent extant NO data sets. In this paper, we describe the formulation and fitting of the model, examine biases between the data sets and model and among the data sets, compare with another empirical NO model (NOEM), and discuss scientific aspects of our analysis